Members click here for full article. (It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Our trading strategy We would like to welcome all our new subscribers who came on board recently. We would also like to share with you a snapshot of our trading strategy. We hope this helps to put in perspective the way we frame up our market analysis. Our trading system is based primarily on analysis of $SPX $NDX $RUT price actions, with heavy reliance on market internals for context and confirmations. When we say market internals, we mean specifically:
... The rest of this article covers: Is a Down Trend or Major Pullback2 imminent? What will Dip6 look like? Is Dip6 imminent? Is a minor dip possible tomorrow Monday? Support and resistance zones? Trading Plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free.
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(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Market internals We are starting to observe a certain amount of bearish divergence between $SPX $NDX prices and market internals, and this may be a message worth heeding from market internals. We will list them in the order of importance.
The rest of this article covers: Market internals (more) $SPX $NDX $RUT support zones during Dip6 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Powell launched Surge6 By now you already know what happened with Fed Chairman Powell today, but just to sum it up quickly: “Mr. Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee signaled that the Fed is likely to cut rates later this month. Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting were also released Wednesday, and showed many central bank officials saw a stronger case for a rate … Federal-funds futures, used by investors to bet on central-bank policy, show a 27% chance that the Fed will cut rates by half a percentage point at its July 31 meeting, up from 3.3% yesterday. The odds of a quarter-point cut stand at about 73%.” - WSJ We wrote yesterday that Surge6 was coming, but perhaps we would see a bit more selling with Dip5 first. Well, Powell’s testimony successfully launched $SPX $NDX $RUT into Surge6 immediately instead. Before we dive into to discern the under-the-hood messages from market internals, let’s digress a tiny bit and ask ourselves “Could we have foreseen this surge today?” Nah! Betting on the outcome of Powell’s comments today, or the outcome of the job report on 7/5, or the outcome of the G20 meeting on 6/28 is just rolling the dice. We are not in the business of rolling the dice. Our job is to identify the underlying messages from the market and do what it says. Market internals have been sending out messages since 6/3 that the Up Trend that started on 12/26/18 is still intact. Market internals have also been saying there’s no imminent threat of a major Pullback like the one in May either. So while there have been Dip4 and Dip5, they haven’t exactly been that big or that long. You know that old saying that you heard from your parents and teachers: “Don’t just sit there. Do something!” In this case, what market internals have really been saying all along is this: “Don't just do something. Sit there! ” Enjoy the ride up. Don’t try to jump in and out on these little dips. You will end up missing most of the ride. Market internals will give us advanced warning when major Pullback2 or a new Down Trend is about to happen. Market internals The collective message from volatility ($VIX $VXN), market breadth (NYSE NASDAQ A/D lines), and the buy/sell cycle indicator (CBOE equity put/call ratio) is this: ... The rest of this article covers: Market internals (more) $SPX $NDX $RUT support and resistance zones during Surge6 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. We’re in Dip5 and it’s approaching the end Sometimes our analysis is right on target, and sometimes it’s not. Yesterday Monday we wrote: “$SPX $NDX $RUT may recover Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday”. Indeed, $SPX $NDX $RUT started rising from support by midday, just as we predicted! However, we haven't been on target with the labeling of the actions. We’ve been re-assessing market data. It turns out Dip5 actually started on 7/5, after the highs made on 7/3 by $SPX $NDX $RUT. At the start of Dip5, market internals showed that it was going to be just a minor dip, which did not qualify for being labeled Dip5. But additional market internal data today shows that $SPX $NDX $RUT are likely going to drop a bit more. $SPX $NDX $RUT are still in the process of forming a proper Dip5, before Surge6 can begin. The rest of this article covers: Market internals $SPX $NDX $RUT support zones during Dip5 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Register here to read the article. All free.
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(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. It’s all about the Fed this coming week On Thursday evening 7/4, we reported that market internals were sending out a collective buy message. Then came the job report early Friday morning. Market was not happy initially as it was too good! According to WSJ: "All three major indexes fell from their records after new data showed U.S. employers hired at a robust pace in June. somewhat dashing investors’ expectations of an interest-rate cut at the Fed’s policy meeting later this month. A sustained slowdown in job growth could potentially nudge the central bank into taking steps that would have stoked further economic growth. ... Markets have moved to all but price out the probability of a double interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve in July...If the U.S. labor market and the U.S. consumer remain in reasonable health, recession risks may start to look overpriced.” However, with market internals primed to buy, the initial drop early Friday morning turned out to be a buy-the-dip moment. $SPX $NDX $RUT all closed the week looking relatively bullish. This coming week will be quite interesting. Fed chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking on Tuesday through Thursday, most of which will be for Congress. And on Wednesday, FOMC minutes will be released. You can bet that market participants will be combing through Powell's words and FOMC minutes for the answer to the Fed’s next move. Meanwhile, for us the key is not in trying to guess how market will react to the nuances from the Fed's statements. Rather, we will just focus on deciphering the collective message from market's internals. Right now the message is it's still Surge5. Let's take a closer look to see when Surge5 might end. Market internals Volatility: Friday morning started out bearish for $SPX $NDX $RUT as $VIX $VXN rose up sharply at open. However, volatility proceeded to drop sharply down as the day progressed, indicating that participants are still primed to buy. $VIX $VXN are both likely going to be testing their support zones in the coming week, which are: ... The rest of this article covers: Volatility (more) Market breadth Buy/Sell cycles $SPX $NDX $RUT support & resistance zones during Surge5 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article. (It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. A summary of our trading strategy Since we have a number of new subscribers on board, we’d like to take a moment to summarize our trading strategy and the instruments we use to trade them. We feel that this is important for all readers to understand, because our trading system is not necessarily suitable for everyone. But our trading system has been designed and refined so that we can identify and trade the following scenarios, using the following trading tools. This system can potentially generate substantial and steady profits. The key is to be able to identify the phases correctly. And for that we turn to market internals. Market internals Volatility: $VIX continued to drop down sharply on Wednesday 7/3. It closed the day at 12.57, which is approaching the key zone between 11 and 12 where previous market tops have formed. Similarly $VXN closed at 16.15, approaching the key zone between 15 and 16. The tricky part about $VIX $VXN is this. Even though they are going to start dipping into the key zones soon, they can spend another 7-10 days in these zones before Surge5 will be done. The rest of this article covers: Volatility (more) Market breadth Buy/Sell Cycles $SPX $NDX $RUT support & resistance zones during Surge5 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Market internals Volatility: Despite the selling in $SPX $NDX $RUT today, $VIX $VXN spent most of the day down. They are both down at the levels where they were at the start of May. And their patterns suggest more dropping yet to come. Though we would have preferred to see a slow and steady decline in volatility, rather than a sharp drop, the basic message from $VIX $VXN is quite bullish. They definitely confirm that Surge5 is happening. Contango is running at close to 9%. This is tough on UVXY and TVIX, but quite bullish for $SPX $NDX $RUT. The rest of this article covers: Market breadth Trader sentiments $SPX $NDX $RUT support & resistance zones during Surge5 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) As we wrote in our trading plan posted last night for members, $SPX $NDX $RUT are still not done testing the support zones yet this morning Tuesday. But as they do this, key market internals are confirming that Surge5 is ready to rise:
This is creating a nice bullish divergence. We are preparing to enter TQQQ on an intraday pullback. Our daily post covers: Volatility Market breadth Trader sentiments $SPX $NDX $RUT support & resistance zones during Surge5 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. |
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