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Here is an excerpt from our trading plan.
The primary difference between May 16 and now
You may recall that Bounce1 for the May Down Trend lasted only from May 13 to May 16 before Drop2 took over.
We may very well see Drop3 of the Down Trend soon. However, let's look at the real reason for the current upward thrust in price and the steady buying.
From Wall St. Journal today: "Traders in futures markets have placed about a 25% chance of a rate cut at the June 18-19 meeting, and a 75% chance of at least one cut by the meeting after that, on July 30-31, according to CME Group . Unlike in May, officials haven’t expressly pushed back against market pricing on rate cuts in recent days. Instead, Fed officials ...signaled ...that they are attentive to the risks of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth, a sign that an interest-rate cut could be on the table at coming meetings."
This is the fuel for the current up swing. This is the difference between now and May 16, the last date of Bounce1.
Again, you have seen the power of the Fed to create melt-up and melt-down from their actions during previous Fed meetings. Even if we don't morally approve of market being happy on this sugar high, as traders we have to trade what's in front of us.
The rest of this article covers:
Surge1/Bounce2: support and resistance levels
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