Updates 1:53 PM ET - Tuesday 11/15/22
Stopped out of TNA runner position
Per explanation at 10:01 AM below, we tightened the stop on our TNA runner position and got stopped out. We locked in close to 12% profit in 4 trading days (since last Thursday).
We are in cash 100% right now and waiting for $VIX and market breadth to reveal the next major move. This next major move is unlikely to happen until this OpEx Friday or Monday.
Updates 10:01 AM ET - Tuesday 11/15/22
$VIX EMAs are starting to go sideway
This morning's Producer Price Index report (PPI) was cooler than expected. This confirms the direction of the CPI report from November 10. ES NQ RTY all spiked up sharply, but not as enthusiastically as they did post CPI.
$VIX hourly chart shows the start of a sideway pattern, the bearish one that we discussed further below. $VIX 20-hour and 50-hour EMA lines are starting to go sideway. This is cause for concern, so we tightened the stop on our TNA runner position. We sent out alert for this right after open.
Our position has been stopped out for now. We are going to continue monitoring for further development in $VIX patterns, but no jumping in right now.
Updates 12 AM ET - Tuesday 11/15/22
Market breadth is still on the high side, but their chart patterns suggest that a pullback is possible this week for ES NQ RTY.
In $VIX hourly chart below we have explained the 2 sets of patterns we are looking for that provide either a bullish setup, or a bearish setup (for stocks) to trade with. You've seen these explanations before. Here they are again because they are very important.
We have observed that these patterns do have a tendency to show up during the week of OpEx.
Right now, we don't have either pattern forming just yet. So we plan to just wait and let $VIX chart reveals where market is going next.
Key S/R Levels
The S/R levels are still the same as Monday. ES NQ RTY are in consolidation mode, hovering at the bottom of their R1-R2 resistance zone. Again, whether they will successfully rise up to R2 or not will depend on how $VIX pattern evolves as explained above.
It is still our goal to re-enter TNA swing position, but we will wait for the bullish quick $VIX spike described above as the low-risk setup to trade with.
Note that if we start observing the bearish sideway pattern described above, we will manually exit TNA runner.
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The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.