Updates for Thursday April 13, 2023

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 12:15 AM ET - Thursday 4/13/23
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CPI and FOMC Minutes
Read here for an analysis from WSJ regarding CPI and FOMC minutes.​

Explanation of Indicators
Background info on $VIX, $VVIX, ES, NQ RTY

Key S/R levels
The table below has been fully updated to reflect the more bearish indicators.

(
Our indicators have turned more bearish (orange).   Recall yesterday we wrote:  
One important pattern is $VIX, which has been going sideway since March 29.  That is a long time, and it is typically a setup for $VIX to rise some amount.   

$VIX did a head fake post CPI on Wednesday morning.   It dropped sharply from 19.4 to 18.5 as a bullish response to the cooler than expected CPI report.  But then $VIX climbed quickly back up to get back into the 19 zone again.

$VIX persistence in this zone, going sideway for multiple weeks, increases the chance that $VIX will rise.  Its pattern does not suggest a massive $VIX eruption.   Rather, we may see $VIX pop up to 21 for a quick test before dropping again.

Yesterday, we also wrote: 
CPI report on Wednesday may send NQ down to retest 12930-12950 (S1) again.

Updated NQ projection:

• NQ did drop post CPI, but we now think it is likely to retest a lower level at 12700 (S1).
• After that NQ is likely to climb up close to 13350 (R1) by OpEx on April 21.
• NQ may then drop to retest support at 12700 (S1) again during late April into early May.  

Beyond this point, it is difficult to project as there isn't enough data yet.

Our Personal Trade Plan
See the summary of our Wednesday trade here. For Thursday, we are monitoring to scale into SQQQ for a quick bear position that may span 2-3 days.   See our buy orders in spreadsheet.

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​​​​​​​​