Updates for Friday April 14, 2023

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 2:23 PM ET - Friday 4/14/23
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$VIX continues to drop as VIX OpEx approaches
Last night, we wrote:   $VIX futures give us more insights into where $VIX might be heading.  It is tied to the monthly $VIX options expiration, which will be next Wednesday April 19, two days ahead of equity OpEx. As $VIX OpEx date approaches, $VIX tends to drop.  But it can rise sharply after expiration, starting next Thursday.   

$VIX continues to drop today as expected, but ES NQ RTY were not tracking $VIX moves as closely.  Instead they dipped more than expected in the morning.  This happens sometimes.  The market acts more bearish than reflected by $VIX.

Our attempts to scale into bull position TNA resulted in a minor loss.  But we re-entered one more time with a half-size TNA position to hold over the weekend.  We plan to add the remaining half on Monday, and hold until Wednesday.

Updates 12:30 AM ET - Friday 4/14/23
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Explanation of Indicators
Background info on $VIX, $VVIX, ES, NQ RTY

Key S/R levels
The table below has been fully updated.

One day sure made a big difference as it turned most of our indicators to bullish (green).   Note that we are adding an additional indicator $VIX futures which is #3 in table above.   (TradingView symbol VX1!)

$VIX futures give us more insights into where $VIX might be heading.  It is tied to the monthly $VIX options expiration, which will be next Wednesday April 19, two days ahead of equity OpEx.   

As $VIX OpEx date approaches, $VIX tends to drop.  But it can rise sharply after expiration, starting next Thursday.   

Updated NQ projection:

• NQ may rise up to13350 (R1) by VIX OpEx on April 19. 
• After April 19, $VIX may start rising, its initial bearish effect on ES NQ RTY is unpredictable.
• After equity OpEx on April 21, NQ may drop to retest support at 12925 (S1) again during late April into early May.  
• While NQ drops, $VIX is likely to rise as traders load up on puts to hedge against FOMC announcement on May 3.
• After May 3, these puts will be unwound, resulting in a short squeeze.   This means ES NQ RTY will likely rise. 

ES and RTY are likely to follow the same path as NQ.

Our Personal Trade Plan
On Thursday, we had made two tests of SQQQ but they both got stopped out from NQ bullish momentum. For Friday, we are monitoring to scale into TNA for a multi-day bull position.   We prefer TNA right now because RTY has the most bullish pattern.   See our buy orders in spreadsheet.

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​​​​​​​​​