Updates for Friday May 26, 2023

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 2:21 PM ET - Friday 5/26/23

Our SVIX trades so far
We manually scaled into SVIX after PCE report per our trade plan from last night.   Based on VIX patterns, VIX is still likely to retest 15.6 - 16.6 before launching into its 2nd "anxiety" spike.   

This means that SVIX is likely to retest near its May 19 high.   We've tightened stop on 1/2 of our position to get out at breakeven, but removed stop on the other half to cope with big swings if they come.   We intend to hold onto at least 1/2 position over the weekend.

Have a great holiday weekend.   Next post will be for Tuesday.

Updates 1:30 AM ET - Friday 5/26/23

Explanation of Indicators
Background info on $VIX, $VVIX, ES, NQ RTY

Key S/R levels
RTY support levels have been updated.  All other levels remain the same.

​Projections
Here are our updated projections.

• VIX 1st "anxiety" spike is likely done, but VIX is likely to retest close to 20.81 one more time before dropping a lot more.   This may happen right after PCE report at 8:30 AM ET.
• Then VIX is likely to drop to the zone 15.6 - 16.4  again, possibly by end of June.
• While VIX drops, ES NQ RTY are likely to rise up to retest R1 again.  NQ may rise higher than R1.

An "anxiety" spike typically results in a moderate drop for ES NQ RTY.  Right now, we don't see any VIX setup for a "real fear" spike, and certainly not a "panic" spike.  Not yet anyway.   

However, after VIX reaches back into the support zone of 15.6 - 16.4, it may form a 2nd "anxiety" spike.  This 2nd spike may happen during the week of 6/12 with CPI, FOMC and June OpEx.   This spike may take VIX up to 22 - 23 before it drops back down again. 

​We don't have enough data at this point to project what will happen after the 2nd "anxiety" spike.   But both bulls and bears should keep in mind that these "anxiety" spikes are short-lived and typically result in choppy price actions for ES NQ RTY.

​Our Personal Trade Plan

• Multi-day Bull:   We are waiting for VIX to retest near 21 again to  scale into SVIX.​

​Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
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Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.