Updates for Wednesday August 23, 2023

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Updates 1:45 AM ET - Wednesday 8/23/23
Read more economic analysis  here.
​
Key S/R levels
The levels below have not changed.   

Big picture analysis and projection
Review the in-depth analysis here as it has not changed.

Short-term projection and strategy to consider
Our short-term projection is for ES NQ RTY to rally from S1 up to R1.  And so far they have done that.  However, Nvidia earnings is right after closing today. 

Nvida is currently priced for perfection, with a trailing PE of 226. Anything less than spectacular from Nvidia and traders are likely to sell.   This selling can take NQ down to S1, possibly dip a bit below S1 to trap in the bears before it reverts.  In other words, we may be looking at a really big price swing.   

• Eventually though ES NQ RTY will still get back up to R1.   
• Meanwhile VIX will likely get back down to the zone 15 - 15.5.   It may drop lower, but not below 13. 
• ES NQ RTY zone from R1 to R2 is a good place to lock in profits from multi-month bull positions.   
• Between August 25 and mid September, be prepared for tactical bull/bear trades that may last a few days each.  
• From mid September to early October, be prepared for the possibility of a big VIX fear spike that may take VIX up to 25.   
• ES NQ RTY may drop to S3 during this big VIX fear spike.
• After the big VIX fear spike, be prepared to enter new multi-month bull positions, unless VVIX suggests that a bigger catastrophe spike is coming.

Our personal trade plan
​Given the potentially big price swing for NQ from Nvidia, we are not comfortable holding TQQQ ahead of Nvidia earnings (after hours on Wed).   

So we plan to scale out ½ position and hold just ½ TQQQ.   

​Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​