Updates for Monday November 20, 2023

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Updates 11:45 PM ET - Sunday

​Upcoming key events
This is a short week with Thanksgiving on Thursday, and a half day market on Friday.  There are no real major economic reports this week, but Nvidia earnings announcements is scheduled for after closing on Tuesday.  So we may see fireworks in after hour activities, overnight futures, and start of cash session on Wednesday.  Read more economic analysis here.

​Earnings this week (Chart courtesy of Earnings Whispers)

Breadth is still strong
Market breadth rose sharply after CPI data was released on November 14. It is still relatively strong.  Below we see the 200 EMA green line on the 15-min chart of Nasdaq percent of stocks above 200 MA still rising sharply.   It's not pausing and it's not ready to drop until it starts to go sideway.

Volatility is still subdued but be careful
All EMA lines on VIX hourly charts are dropping sharply.   Same with VVIX chart (volatility of VIX).   However, VVIX is a useful oscillator.  It has dropped substantially below its 200-hour EMA green line.  That is a region primed for rising.  So VVIX is telling bulls to be careful.  This market is so tilted the bull side that it won't take much to tip it over to the bearish side.   

Still bears should not get excited for any kind of multi-week selloff.   That is unlikely to happen until VVIX 20-hour EMA blue line crosses over its 50-hour EMA red line.

Key S/R levels
The updated levels are highlighted in bold.  ​

Still a bull market, but a dip is likely
Since equity is too tilted to the bull side at this point, initiating a new multi-week bull position is too risky.  Consider short-term, quick tactical trades using smaller amount of capital.   

Unfortunately, VIX VVIX and breadth indicators are not super useful signals when it comes to detecting the quick dips.  So we have to use price action setups for ES NQ RTY.  They are all showing price stuck at R1 levels.   There is a high probability that ES NQ RTY will dip to S1.

​Our personal trade plan
We want to capture RTY dipping from R1 (1839) to S1 (1760).  This is a dip in a bull trend, not the start of a new bear trend.  We're trading with just 1/2 position. See the spreadsheet for details.
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Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.