Updates for Friday August 16, 2024

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 1:45 AM ET - Friday

Upcoming key events
Read here for more analysis on Thursday's positive economic news.

VIX VVIX VX UVXY are dropping >> Bulls in control
This is the same observation as what we wrote pre-market on Thursday, ahead of the good news jobless claims and retail sales reports.  It's not that we were prescient with macro economic news.   It's just volatility giving us the advance clues that the bulls were in charge.

The bulls are feeling quite confident, if not brazen at this point.  It will take multiple days of basing on VIX VVIX VX UVXY charts before volatility can spike for multiple days, which then can lead to a Level 2 or higher dip.   We are not seeing any such basing pattern right now.

Still as we wrote yesterday, don't be surprised if there is a sudden one-day spike in volatility.  Specifically, VIX futures (VX) can spike from its current level below 16 up to 19.  These sudden one-day spike does not usually come with multiple days of basing, so  beware of it but don't get too worked up about it.

​NQ
NQ 1-hour chart below shows the 3 tiers of rising channels that NQ has been marching inside.   Between August 5 and 14, NQ had been coiling inside the. blue middle channel, building up its energy. It bursted above the blue channel into the top green channel after the good economic news on Thursday pre-market.

NQ may still retest the following support levels:

• S1:  19440
• S2:  19175 
• S3:  18840

If NQ gets stuck in the blue channel, it may only reach R1 resistance at 20188 by August 28 NVDA earnings date. 

If NQ manages to stay in the green channel, it may reach R2 resistance at 20888 by  August 28 NVDA earnings date.     

SOXL
Read more about the channels above.  SOXL may still retest the following support levels:

• S1:   39.3
• S2:   35.4 
• S3:   32.5

If NQ gets stuck in the blue channel, it may only reach R1 resistance at 46 by August 28 NVDA earnings date. 

If NQ manages to stay in the green channel, it may reach R2 resistance at 54.9 by  August 28 NVDA earnings date.     

We personally now have 2 full positions in SOXL.  We have no plan to add any more SOXL for now.   We will start to scale out of SOXL into UVXY when we observe the multi-day basing pattern in VIX VVIX VX UVXY charts.

​​Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

TNA
​Read more about the channels above.  TNA may still retest the following support levels:

• S1:   39.69
• S2:   38.64
• S3:   36.9

If TNA gets stuck in the blue channel, it may only reach R1 resistance at 43.1 by August 22 Jackson Hole. 

If NQ manages to stay in the green channel, it may reach R2 resistance at 48 by  August 22 Jackson Hole.      

​Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.