Updates for Tuesday October 29, 2024

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
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Updates 1:25 AM ET - Tuesday

​Yesterday we projected in our analysis that NQ NVDA SOXL would try to push through their respective R1 levels from S1 and fail. That pretty much was what happened on Monday.  And now we are onto the next step in the projection, which is for NQ NVDA SOXL to get down to S2 and then try again.

Volatility:  back to more hedging
VX 4 hour chart shows the increasing demand for hedging against the potential storm coming Nov 5-6.  VX is refusing to drop below 18.4, and continues to build a base to rise.  And VX will rise, most likely to get close to 21.25 by FOMC Nov 6.  What this all means is that equity will be operating in an environment with strong VIX headwinds.

​NQ
Here are the projections described ahead of Monday, and still true for Tuesday.

1. The 1st attempt is a push from S1 at 20466 to surpass R1 at 20707 the start of the week.  >> This did happen on Monday and NQ failed as anticipated.  Observe the topping candles on NQ daily chart.
2. Failure in this 1st attempt will likely drive NQ down to S2 at 20300.   From here NQ will make a 2nd attempt to rise above R1.  It has a 50% chance of succeeding, especially if tech earnings are strong.
3. Failure at the 2nd attempt though will likely trigger more substantial selling and can push NQ down to S3 at 20079.  From here NQ will make a 3rd attempt rise above R1.  It has a high probability of succeeding because there is probably a high number of buyers at this level.

​Successfully pushing above R1 will set NQ on the path to climb to R2 at 21216.   NQ will most likely be on this path after Nov 6 FOMC.  The question is just a matter of at which support level can you scale into NQ if you want to buy it with relatively low risk.  With volatility headwinds happening this week, S3 is likely the level where the push will finally succeed.

​NVDA NVDL will follow in very similar sequence to NQ described above.  Here are their key levels.

NVDA

• R2:   155.8
• R1:   144.5
• S1:   140.5
• S2:   137
• S3:   133

NVDL    

• R2:   93.5
• R1:   80.85
• S1:   76.4
• S2:   72.75
• S3:   68.7

SOXL    
SOXL will follow in very similar sequence to NQ described above.

• R2:   41
• R1:   36.86
• S1:   34.4
• S2:   32.8
• S3:   31

​TNA    
TNA is actually showing more strength than NQ or ES. TNA rose to push above yesterday’s R1 level at 43.5.  Here are the new S/R levels.

• R2:   47
• R1:   45.3
• S1:   43.55
• S2:   41.88
• S3:   40.15

​Our personal trade plan
We aim to enter NVDL on a dip back to S3 at 68.7.  The stop set right now is a hit-by-the-bus stop, in case something catastrophic happens to the trader (us). We will raise it to a breakeven stop once this trade gains some traction and starts gaining at least 3%.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
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Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.