Updates for Friday November 1, 2024

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
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Updates 2:45 AM ET - Friday

Market mood:  short-term bearish
As we wrote multiple times on Thursday, traders are growing more nervous about:

• Latest reported core PCE at 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6%.  This may deter the Fed from cutting rates next week. 
• ADP report on Wednesday showed job creation hit its highest level since July 2023 as the economy worked through hurricane recovery.   Again, this adds to fear of no rate cut.    
• Reactions to big tech earnings have not been positive.  TSLA and GOOG surged up but are now heading down.  MSFT META AAPL got sold off.  AMZN surged up but we’ll see if it holds.  
• In the semiconductor space, SMCI auditor is resigning.  SMCI itself may get delisted from Nasdaq.  AMD had very disappointing results.

More volatility coming
VIX daily chart showed a big candle that gapped up this morning.  This is concerning for the bulls.   ​

VX 4-hour chart below shows VX is easing up a bit tonight.  We may see VX drops back down to 19.5.  But there is a good chance it might still bounce from here to reach 22.5 eventually.  That is where VX will most likely peak.

​NVDA
We must confess that we did think that NVDA was signaling a selloff.  This is mainly because NVDA spent 6 days trying and failing to rise above 144.5.  But we didn’t take it as a leading signal.  We should have.

If this market is to find support and be able to resume the bullish momentum, NVDA has to show that it has reached strong support and has to lead the way up.  So it is important to monitor NVDA. 

Here is a path that NVDA might follow.  Note that the distance between levels are now much bigger because we are in sell mode.

• NVDA may continue dropping to reach key support at S1 at 128.75
• NVDA will most likely bounce from S1 up to R1 at 137.6.  If it finding enough buyers here, we are done with this major selloff.
• If NVDA fails to rise above R1 however, it will have to drop all the way to S2 at 119.25 before the selloff is done.

NQ
NQ will follow a path similar to NVDA.

• R1:   20400
• S1:   19857
• S2:   19416

SOXL
SOXL will follow a path similar to NVDA.

• R1:   34.85
• S1:   28
• S2:   23.5

TNA    

• R1:   44
• S1:   40.23
• S2:   36.6

Our personal trade plan
We are monitoring NVDA for bounce from S1 to R1 first.  No plan for entry right now.  Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
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Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​​