Updates for Monday November 4, 2024

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
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Updates 1:45 AM ET - Monday

Market mood:  really worried but not committed to major selling yet
There are only 2 events this week that matters.  FOMC announcement is on Thursday due to the elections.  According to CME FedWatch, pretty much everyone is expecting a 25 bps cut, which brings rate down to 450-475 range.  (Current is 475-500.)

You may want to check out this discussion with Mohamed El-Erian regarding rates and the economy.  Our takeaway is this.  There is no reason to panic on the economy, or fearing that the Fed is losing control of the situation.  Not right now.  But the uncertainty of the election outcome, and the certainty of the election chaos and violence is making everyone extremely nervous.  

Selling started in earnest last Wednesday Oct 30, and was heavy Thursday. Then on Friday bears got squeezed as price recovered.   
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​Volatility:  short-term top possible
​VX 4-hour chart below shows VIX futures forming a possible short-term top.  It is likely to chop around the top for a bit, then drop down into the support zone of 18.7 - 19.25.  This is the zone where VX may find enough new buyers to rise again. 

It is this 2nd attempt to rise that may do substantial damage for stocks.  We may see VX surge up to 22.5 as equity drops a lot more.​

​NQ

• NQ is likely to retest initial support at 20008 quickly early Monday as VX chops around the top.
• NQ will most likely find enough buyers at 20008.  And with VX dropping, it will most likely climb back up to retest key resistance at 20545.
• If NQ cannot build enough bull momentum here to break above 20545, it will sell off sharply and most likely won’t truly find bottom until support at 19636.

​NVDA
See NQ path discussed above.

• Initial support:       132
• Key resistance:      144.5
• Possible bottom:   125.5

NVDL
See NQ path discussed above.

• Initial support:        67.1
• Key resistance:       80.85
• Possible bottom:    61

​SOXL
See NQ path discussed above.

• Initial support:        29.2
• Key resistance:       35.5
• Possible bottom:    25.5

​TNA
See NQ path discussed above.

• Initial support:        41.45
• Key resistance:       45.4
• Possible bottom:    38.45

Our personal trade plan
We will try to capture the bounce in NVDA NVDL when they retest initial support.   Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
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Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​