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Updates for Monday November 11, 2024

11/10/2024

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Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 1:30 AM ET - Monday
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​How much is left for this bull market?
As we approach the end of the year, it’s helpful to take a look at where we are in the aging process of this bull market.
  • 12/27/22:  NQ Weekly Chart Bull Trend started.
  • 12/27/22 -7/19/23:  1st Bull Cycle within Bull Trend.
  • 10/27/23 - 3/4/24:  2nd Bull Cycle within Bull Trend.
  • 4/22/24 - 7/11/24:   3rd Bull Cycle within bull Trend.
  • 8/5/24 - ??? :   4th Bull Cycle within Bull Trend

So NQ is currently in its 4th Bull Cycle that started on 8/5/24, within the Bull Trend that started on 12/27/22.  See NQ weekly chart below.   What this tells us is this is an aging bull.  There are typically 4 - 5 bull cycles in a bull trend.
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​If we take a look at Nasdaq percent of stocks above 200-day MA, we can see that it is forming a pattern very similar to July 2015 and October 2021.  The 20-week EMA blue line is about to cross below the 200-week EMA green line.  In other words, Nasdaq stocks are poised to enter a sell-off period, if this pattern unfolds as it typically does.

Keep in mind, we are not saying a crash is imminent.  We are saying this bull market is entering possibly the last bull cycle, and it may end in Q1 2025.
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​Volatility
VVIX daily chart below is telling us that volatility is likely to keep going down. The 20-day EMA blue line is forming multi-top pattern. This will be supportive of equity going up.  This should help the current bull cycle to continue for the remainder of 2024.
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​We are still monitoring VX to drop to key support at 14.8, bounce up to 16.5 and then grind down again.  That quick bounce is likely our quick dip to buy into NQ NVDL SOXL TNA.
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​NQ
NQ has surpassed its previous high and is now at 21290.  It is just starting to ease up a bit in its bullish momentum.  Wait for NQ to dip back to support in the zone 20700 - 20800, accompanied by the quick spike in VX.  That’s the low-risk setup to buy NQ for the remainder of this big bull swing.  NQ may reach all time high at 22000 by year end.

SOXL
Like NQ, SOXL is rising sharply. Wait for SOXL to dip back to support in the zone 33 - 33.5, accompanied by the quick spike in VX.  That’s the low-risk setup to buy SOXL for the remainder of this big bull swing.  SOXL may reach 44 by year end.

TNA
TNA charged up early on Nov 5, and is now showing clear signs of easing ahead of tech stocks.  TNA ran into resistance at 54.5.  It is now starting the dip process. Wait for TNA to dip back to support in the zone 46.5 - 47.8, accompanied by the quick spike in VX.  That’s the low-risk setup to buy TNA for the remainder of this big bull swing.  TNA may reach 67.8 by year end.

Our personal trade plan
Our plan to enter NVDL when NQ pulls back to support in the zone 20700-20800, and VX spikes up to 16 - 16.5.  Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​​
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