Updates for Wednesday November 20, 2024

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 4 PM ET - Wednesday
Per analysis pre-market below, we placed sell order pre-market to exit TQQQ ahead of NVDA earnings.  Read here for info on how we entered this trade.  

Updates 2:30 AM ET - Wednesday
​​Read here about upcoming Fed decision in December.

Is the market going to dive after NVDA earnings like it did in August?
​The answer according to VVIX (volatility of VIX) is unlikely.  Volatility conditions were quite different back in August as compared to now.  VVIX daily chart below shows its 20-day EMA blue line forming a topping pattern after 4 tops, and this pattern is still intact.  

Furthermore, VVIX 20 EMA-day EMA blue line is about to cross below its 200-day EMA green line.  Once this happens, this blue line is likely to stay below and trends down for a while.  This is very supportive of equity.

VX (VIX futures) daily chart below shows a similar topping formation.  VX has formed 4 tops since August.  Its 20-day EMA blue line crossed below the 200-day EMA green line on 11/5, then crossed below the 50-day EMA red line on 11/11.  It's going to take a fair amount of fear for this blue line to rise above the EMA ​50-day EMA red line.

Still that does not mean VX won't make a 3rd attempt to surge above 17.1 resistance level.  It failed the first 2 times.  It is likely to fail again, but VX is likely to make that push attempt still.  VX 200 EMA green line on its 30-min chart below is trending up.  We think this push will happen after NVDA earnings.  

NQ
So what does this mean for NQ movements?  As VX pushes that one last attempt to get above 17.1, NQ is likely to retest key support at 20383.  As long as NQ can hold this support level, a W bottom pattern will form and enough buyers will come in to enable NQ to rise up to retest resistance at 21340 again.

TQQQ: Will follow similar path to NQ.  

• Support:        73.1
• Resistance:   84

NVDA: Will follow similar path to NQ.  

• Support:        140
• Resistance:   150

NVDL: Will follow similar path to NQ.  

• Support:        74.5
• Resistance:   86

SOXL: Will follow similar path to NQ.  

• Support:        26.18
• Resistance:   36

TNA: Will follow similar path to NQ.  

• Support:        45.54
• Resistance:   56.6

Our personal trade plan
We have to be out of the office all day Wednesday unfortunately. So we have decided to close our full TQQQ position for now and will monitor Thursday for re-entry.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
​
Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​​​​​​​