Updates for Friday December 6, 2024

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 1:01 PM ET - Friday
Volatility is still likely to spike and NQ likely to dip
Here's a quick summary of the jobs report from WSJ:  "Hiring bounced back with 227,000 jobs added last month....The general picture is that the labor market has slowed, but is still doing well."
The positive jobs report brought a quick spike in equity.  But the charts are still showing that a dip is likely to come.

VVIX chart is actually the clearest in message.  On VVIX 4-hour chart, it has been basing since November 26.  Its MACD line is rising steadily.  This is a warning that volatility is likely to rise soon.  We are projecting that VIX may spike up to 15 and VX to 15.8.  Still we don't recommend jumping into UVXY because the underlying bull is still strong.

NQ 4-hour chart shows a sharp spike up this morning.  Price is at a new high near 21645.  But its MACD is forming lower high while price is forming higher high.  This is a bearish divergence and is a warning to aggressively protect our bull positions.  However, as we said above the underlying bull is still strong.  We don't recommend jumping into SQQQ.

SOXL is likely to follow in NQ footsteps which means its current dip will continue further.
The same is true with TNA.

Updates 7:10 PM ET - Thursday

​Volatility may spike a moderate amount
Ahead of Thursday, we wrote:  volatility is likely to base and then rise a moderate amount.  We think that VX can spike up to 15.8 before dropping again. This means that the short term equity bull swing that started mid-November may experience a moderate dip. It is time to aggressively protect your bull positions, but it is NOT time to enter UVXY just yet.

The 4-hour charts of VIX VVIX VX are showing that they are basing and their MACD cyan lines are crossing above their orange signal lines.  This confirms the probability of a moderate rise in volatility.

NQ
Ahead of Thursday, we wrote:  MACD pattern on NQ hourly chart confirms that it is likely to be forming a short-term top, echoing the same mood suggested by VX chart.

Dip is starting as anticipated.  Initial support zone is  21165 - 21250.  If NQ finds enough buyers here, a new bull swing can start at this zone.  If NQ ffinds enough buyers here, it will definitely retest R1 at 21567 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 22000 by year end.

​TQQQ
Dip is starting for TQQQ.  A new bull swing can start in the support zone of 82 - 82.8.  If TQQQ finds enough buyers here, it will definitely retest R1 at 86.6 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 91.8 by year end.

SOXL 
Dip is progressing for SOXL.  A new bull swing can start in the support zone of 26.8 - 27.4.   If SOXL finds enough buyers here, it will definitely retest R1 at 31.6 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 35 by year end.

TNA
​Dip is progressing for TNA.  A new bull swing can start in the support zone of 48 - 49.7.  If TNA finds enough buyers here, it will definitely retest R1 at 58 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 61 by year end.

​Our personal trade plan
We don't have any entry or exit plan right now as we have a very busy personal schedule.  But we will be monitoring to re-enter TQQQ when it dips back into its key support zone.   Click here for recent trade results.
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Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.