Updates for Monday December 16, 2024

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Updates 12:15 AM ET - Monday
This week is the last major trading week before Christmas holiday, and it is packed with market moving events.  Besides VIXEx and OpEx, we have FOMC on Wednesday and PCE on Friday.

According to WSJ:  "It is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as inflation has been sufficiently contained recently to justify a further reduction...There will be heightened focus on the outlook for future interest-rate cuts, especially given that many of the policies of President-elect Donald Trump are expected to be inflationary...U.S. money markets price in a 94% chance of a rate cut in December, according to LSEG data. However, for the whole of 2025, they price in just two more rate reductions."

​Volatility:  maybe a small spike
​VIX futures (VX) 4-hour chart below confirms its intention to rise.  Note how its 20 EMA blue line is about to cross above its 50 EMA red line. Both its MACD cyan line and orange signal line are rising, confirming the upcoming rise in volatility.  VX may reach up to 17.3 before this spike is done.   But in the context of the big picture, this is just a very moderate spike.

​NQ
NQ daily chart below shows that it's still on an upward trajectory, and is likely to reach 22000 soon. 

​However, NQ 1-hour chart suggests that a quick dip is still possible, not guaranteed but possible.  The reason for this dip projection is because NQ 1-hour MACD cyan line is forming a lower high, diverging bearishly from NQ higher high top.  Bulls should keep this in mind especially when factoring in VX dip setup from above.

NQ has strong support in the zone 21340 - 21450 at this point, so it's unlikely to dip below this.

TQQQ:  Likely to follow NQ path up to R1 and higher, but the possibility of a quick dip to support zone S1 below.

• S1:   84 - 85
• R1:  92

SOXL:  Likely to follow NQ path up to R1 and higher, but the possibility of a quick dip to support zone S1 below.

• S1:  28 - 29
• R1:  33​

TNA:  is very close to S1 support zone and is likely to start basing and rising.   TNA may reach R1 by year end

• S1:  48 - 49
• R1:  55

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.