Tuesday is the start of Lunar New Year, which means there may be a lot less participation from Asian markets. This may have notable impact on futures trading.

The next monthly option expiration (OPEX) date is 2/18.

Expectations for next couple weeks
Our system composite signal technically turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of day on 1/24.  This signal still intact, and is getting more ripe.  In other words, we are getting very close to "Fully Bullish".  Friday's price actions ended with a big bullish move in the last 30-minutes of the trading day. This further confirms this.

Our system signal is sensitive and accurate in gauging true market sentiments. It tells us that the odds are high that $SPX $NDX IWM will  continue to rise for the next 1-2 weeks. 

Keep in mind though that the signal cannot tell us for sure the magnitude of the move (how high), or the smoothness of the move (choppy vs. steady).  

Expectations for next couple months
So the short-term picture is improving for the stock market.   However, looking out over the next couple months, there's a strong possibility that $SPX $NDX IWM may see lower lows (relative to 1/24).   

This is because on the weekly charts, $VIX $VXN $RVX are forming the kind of pattern that makes it possible for them to really surge. This is further confirmed by VIX futures chart.   

VIX futures are in backwardation, which means that traders are really worried about the market right now, as opposed to later this year.  In fact, VIX futures show that they are quite worried about February and March in particular.   

So with OPEX coming up on 2/18, we may see our system signal turns "Fully Bullish", but does not last very long before becoming bearish again.

Key price levels
The key price levels are actually still the same for the indices.   However, we've added SPXL to the table as we plan to trade this 3x ETF going forward.

Trade Plan 
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
​​
Since the composite signal is a very ripe "Approaching Bullish", we will look to scale into SPXL and TQQQ on Monday.
​
​Volatility:  $VVIX $VIX $VXN $RVX
Read more about $VIX $VXN $RVX $VVIX here.

All volatility charts have turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/24.  This signal is still intact.

We are now looking for $VVIX chart pattern to anchor at or below its 200-hour EMA green line.   Then bulls should hope that $VVIX forms a quick lower-high spike (relative to 1/24).   This will shake out the weak hands and turn the signal "Fully Bullish". 

Hedging by Dealers
Read more about how options are impacting the market and the effects of dealer hedging here.

Below are the updated volatility trigger levels.    

• $SPX:  4530 (updated)
• $NDX:  14775 
• IWM:  215 

As of this writing, all indices are still below their trigger levels.   This means dealer hedging will fuel volatility rather than dampen it.   So expect big price swings to continue both up and down.

Market Breadth:  Advance-Decline Net Issues
The signal for all A/D charts have changed to "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/27.

Trade Plan 
Read further below for the analysis of the individual signal.   As for our trade plan, we are planning to do this.

• If P/C ratio gaps up to 1.2 or higher at open on Friday, we will look for a low-risk setup to enter TQQQ for a quick trade.
• If P/C ratio drops down to 0.9 or lower at open on Friday, we will look for a low-risk setup to enter TZA for a quick trade.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
​​
​​Hedging by Traders:  Put/Call Ratio 
Today we will examine P/C ratio chart first because it moves the fastest. The signal from P/C ratio chart has turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/24.​ This signal is still intact.  

If the P/C ratio rises again but doesn't exceed 1.4 for a couple days, the signal can be considered "Fully Bullish".

​Volatility:  $VVIX $VIX $VXN $RVX
Read more about $VIX $VXN $RVX $VVIX and the effects of options and hedging on the market here.

All volatility charts have turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/24.   This signal is still intact.   If $VIX rises again, but does not exceed 38.94, the signal can be considered "Fully Bullish".

Hedging by Dealers
Below are the current volatility trigger levels.    

• $SPX:  4590 (updated) 
• $NDX:  14775 
• IWM:  218 

As of this writing, all indices are below their trigger levels.   This means that dealer hedging right now will fuel volatility, rather than dampen it.   So expect big price swings to continue.   

Market Breadth:  Advance-Decline Net Issues
The signal for all A/D charts have turned back to "Fully Bearish" for now, based on their EMA patterns. 

​However, we've been pointing out that the A/D data itself has been forming higher lows.  This is true for NYSE, Nasdaq as well as small caps.  This is an important bullish divergence.

Hedging by Traders:  Put/Call Ratio 
The signal from P/C ratio chart has turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/24.​  This signal is still intact.  If the P/C ratio rises again, but the 20-hour EMA doesn’t rise above its 1/24 high, the signal can be considered "Fully Bullish".

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 11:56 AM ET - Wednesday 1/26/22

What to look for
P/C ratio 30-minute chart below shows the kind of pattern that we are looking for to tell us that its signal has turned "Fully Bullish".   

That "Fully Bullish" signal is NOT there on the current chart yet.   We need to see P/C ratio rise quite a bit more, or stay high over multiple days, in order for its 20 EMA blue line to rise up and get close to 1/24 level. 

This is not good news for the bulls.   It means we have to see more selling, possibly to 1/24 low, or lower, in order for the signal to turn "Fully Bullish".   

In the current environment of dealer hedging fueling the flame, it means we may see some very big swings post FOMC.   

The good news is once P/C ratio chart forms the above pattern, its signal will turn "Fully Bullish".   Until then, our best bet may be to hedge with UVXY SQQQ TZA.   We will post updates at our spreadsheet soon.

Here is a link to today's WSJ article about what to expect from FOMC announcement and implications.

Updates 12:45 AM ET - Wednesday 1/26/22

The Big Picture
Our system composite signal technically has turned "Approaching Bullish" on Monday.  This is a transition phase where price can swing rapidly up/down due to the nature of current dealer hedging.

FOMC announcement is at 2 PM ET today.   It will definitely move the market one way or another. Then we have TSLA earnings after hours. If it is anything like MSFT earnings on Tuesday, it will be another huge rollercoaster ride.  Finally we have AAPL earnings after hours on Thursday. This is definitely not a market for the weak-in-the-stomach.

Note that because market is in a transition phase, and because of unpredictable post-FOMC reactions, the current "Approaching Bullish" signal may fail.  

But if the indicators manage to stay in "Approaching Bullish" mode, while $SPX $NDX IWM retest Monday's lows post FOMC, it will be a low-risk bullish setup to enter long.   

​Price Projections
The table below is the same as yesterday.

​Trade Plan 
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
​​
​Volatility:  $VVIX $VIX $VXN $RVX
Read more about $VIX $VXN $RVX $VVIX and the effects of options and hedging on the market here.

All volatility charts have turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/24.   This signal is still intact.   Monitoring for same-high/lower-high pattern to turn it "Fully Bullish".

Hedging by Traders:  Put/Call Ratio 
The signal from P/C ratio chart has turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/24.​  This signal is still intact.  Monitoring for same-high/lower-high pattern to turn it "Fully Bullish".

​Hedging by Dealers
Stock market has been in a vicious cycle since the sell-off started.   Steady selling triggered margin calls and panic in traders​.   So they sell calls and buy puts.  Dealers have to take the other side of those trades, and they have to hedge their books to stay neutral.  Dealer hedging in this case results in them selling into weakness and buying into strength.   This causes volatility to rise.  Rising volatility makes traders panic even more.  So they sell more calls and buy more puts.   And on it goes.   

Despite the signal changing to "Approaching Bullish" on Monday, market is still in a vicious cycle.   

Below are the current volatility trigger levels.    

• $SPX:  4590 
• $NDX:  14775 
• IWM:  218 

As of this writing, all indices are below their trigger levels.   So expect this vicious cycle to continue.  But keep in mind, no cycle lasts forever.  So have faith.

Market Breadth:  Advance-Decline Net Issues
The signal for all A/D charts have turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/24.  This signal is still intact.  Monitoring for higher-low pattern to turn it "Fully Bullish".

Below is the daily A/D chart for small caps.   Observe how small caps had a high positive A/D net issue day on Monday.   This was much more positive than NYSE or Nasdaq.  There's hope for small caps yet.

​Other Signals for Big Picture Consideration
The Dark Pool Index (DIX) shows silent money had a big bullish reversal and bought $SPX on Tuesday.  

Bond volatility (MOVE index) has ended last week with a clear lower high pattern, relative to its November peak.  It is now creeping up.    

Bond ETF (TLT IEF LQD) weekly charts show that they have formed bullish candles at key support levels last week.  But they are struggling to rise.  Until bonds start rising again, it's hard for stocks to stabilize.

Finally junk bonds (JNK HYG) had a big bullish reversal on Monday, and is forming some bullish looking candles on its daily chart.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​To Read
We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing.  
1% Risk Rule
If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read:
Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term
If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read:
​The risks of investing in inverse ETFs

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion.  Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.   We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions.

Hedging by Traders:  Put/Call Ratio 
The signal from P/C ratio chart has turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/24.​

Hedging by Dealers
Stock market has been in a vicious cycle since the sell-off started.   Steady selling triggered margin calls and panic in traders​.   So they sell calls and buy puts.  Dealers have to take the other side of those trades, and they have to hedge their books to stay neutral.  Dealer hedging in this case results in them selling into weakness and buying into strength.   This causes volatility to rise.  Rising volatility makes traders panic even more.  So they sell more calls and buy more puts.   And on it goes.   

Despite the signal changing to "Approaching Bullish" on Monday, market is still in a vicious cycle.   

Below are the updated volatility trigger levels.    

• $SPX:  4590 (updated)
• $NDX:  14775  (updated)
• IWM:  218 

As of this writing, all indices are below their trigger levels.   So expect this vicious cycle to continue.  But keep in mind, no cycle lasts forever.  So have faith.

Market Breadth:  Advance-Decline Net Issues
The signal for all A/D charts have turned "Approaching Bullish" by end of 1/24.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 12 PM ET - Monday 1/24/22
P/C ratio 15-minute chart below shows that it is forming a topping pattern that may last more than one day.   But it is not done forming this topping pattern yet for today. 

P/C ratio short-term topping pattern is supportive of a relief rally for stocks.  But it is too early to enter long right now to capture the quick relief rally.  At the same time, it is too risky to enter short while this topping pattern is being formed.

Note that the signal has not turned to "Approaching Bullish" yet for P/C ratio, or for the composite signal.    It's a first step, a very very early spring thaw signal.  

Updates 9:12 AM ET - Monday 1/24/22
$NDX is selling off hard, but the setup is not quite ready for a relief bounce just yet.   There's fund liquidation going on.   Panic all around.  On the intraday chart, we are not seeing a recovery pattern yet even at the 5-min level. 

So no going long yet.   We will update the spreadsheet shortly.
​
Updates 5:45 PM ET - Sunday

Key Dates This Week
The big event this week is of course FOMC announcement on Wednesday.

In addition, these gorillas are reporting earnings this week:  MSFT, TSLA, AAPL.
Their earnings will either be the catalysts to end the sell-off, or fuel to continue the meltdown.

The Big Picture
Our system composite signal technically turned "Fully Bearish" on 1/11.   And stocks have been selling off hard since then. We must confess that we underestimated the magnitude of this sell-off.   

At this point, the signal is still "Fully Bearish", which means more selling ahead, until the signal changes to "Approaching Bullish". However, market conditions have reached extreme oversold. So we are likely to see a bit of stabilizing and possibly a relief rally early in the week, ahead of FOMC.  

Depending on what the Fed says on Wednesday, there's a chance the relief rally can turn into a real rally.   But the Fed may fumble it, and trigger a meltdown in the market.   This is what happened back in December 2018.   So stay nimble.

​Price Projections
The table below is fully updated.

​Hedging by Traders:  Put/Call Ratio 
The signal from P/C ratio chart is still "Fully Bearish".   We need to see at least a "same-high" or "lower-high" pattern from P/C ratio chart for this signal to edge towards "Approaching Bullish".   Unfortunately, the 20-day EMA blue line is still coiling higher.  So nothing has changed yet.​

Hedging by Dealers
Stock market has been in a vicious cycle since the sell-off started.   Steady selling triggered margin calls and panic in traders​.   So they sell calls and buy puts.  Dealers have to take the other side of those trades, and they have to hedge their books to stay neutral.  Dealer hedging in this case results in them selling into weakness and buying into strength.   This causes volatility to rise.  Rising volatility makes traders panic even more.  So they sell more calls and buy more puts.   And on it goes.

Below are the updated volatility trigger levels.    

• $SPX:  4625 (updated)
• $NDX:  15820  (updated)
• IWM:  218 

As of this writing, all indices are below their trigger levels.   So expect this vicious cycle to continue.  But keep in mind, no cycle lasts forever.  So have faith.

Market Breadth:  Advance-Decline Net Issues
The signal for all A/D charts based on their EMA lines are all "Fully Bearish" right now.  But we have been noticing this pattern.  NYSE A/D weekly net issues are forming higher lows while $SPX is forming lower lows relative to Dec ‘21. 

This is possibly a very early bullish divergence.  Keep an eye on this, but don't hold your breath.

​Other Signals for Big Picture Consideration
The Dark Pool Index shows silent money has not been actively buying $SPX.

Bond volatility (MOVE index) is ended last week with a clear lower high pattern, relative to its November peak.   This may be short-term topping process for bond volatility, and if true, it is an early bullish divergence for stocks from bond messages. 

In fact, bond ETF (TLT IEF LQD) weekly charts show that they have formed bullish candles at key support levels last week.   One could argue that money is rotating into bonds for safety. But the fact that big money is buying bonds at all in the face of sharply rising rates and inflation is a good thing for the financial system overall.

​Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​To Read
We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing.  
1% Risk Rule
If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read:
Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term
If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read:
​The risks of investing in inverse ETFs

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion.  Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.   We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions.

​Trade Plan​
All the indicators tell us that it's still "Fully Bearish" right now.   (See indicator charts and analysis further below.)   

Volatility charts are signaling rising panic in the market. UVXY is now an attractive candidate for testing.  But we want to make sure that we don't get trapped, so we will wait for UVXY to pull back to support before entering (see chart below).

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Volatility:  $VVIX $VIX $VXN $RVX
Read more about $VIX $VXN $RVX $VVIX and the effects of options and hedging on the market here.

All volatility charts spiked up late Thursday, indicating a growing sense of panic.   The signal is definitely "Fully Bearish", and may stay this way until post FOMC.   

Hedging by Dealers
​Below are the updated volatility trigger levels.  If price is above the trigger level, dealer hedging will change from "fueling volatility" (big price swings)  to "dampening volatility" (calm price movements).

• $SPX:  4630 (updated)
• $NDX:  15525  (updated)
• IWM:  218 (updated) 

As of this writing, all indices are below their trigger level.  So expect big price swings to continue.

Market Breadth:  Advance-Decline Net Issues
The signal for all A/D charts are back to "Fully Bearish".  ​

​Other Signals for Big Picture Consideration
The Dark Pool Index shows silent money has eased up buying from earlier this  week.  

Bond volatility (MOVE index) is rising back up, but is still forming lower high relative to its November peak.   This may be short-term topping process, and if true, it is an early bullish divergence for stocks from bond messages.   Too early to tell though.   Need more confirmation.

Junk bonds (JNK HYG) dropped hard just like $SPX on Thursday.  No bullish divergence here.

​Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​To Read
We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing.  
1% Risk Rule
If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read:
Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term
If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read:
​The risks of investing in inverse ETFs

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion.  Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.   We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 11:23 AM ET - Thursday 1/20/22

Stocks are making the first serious attempt to end the sell-off and reverse upward.    All signals are still "Fully Bearish" right now.    However, they seem to be approaching the end of this bearish state.   

• Intraday A/D issues are highly positive right now.  
• P/C ratio:  heading down intraday.   We're waiting for multi-top pattern to form on hourly chart.
• Volatility:  heading down intraday, but not by much.   Waiting for multi-top pattern to form on hourly chart.​

Earlier today, we wrote:   beware that reversal risk is high.   Price can swing rapidly in either direction since we are in an environment where dealer hedging fuels the flame of volatility. 
 
This is definitely true for this morning.   Our trade plan:

• Wait for an intraday double bottom to test TQQQ for a quick bounce trade.
• Wait for a substantial pullback to test TZA for the resumption of the sell-off.   
• Trade no more than one position at a time.   
• Use tight stops due to reversal risks.

Both entries are shown in the spreadsheet.
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 12 AM ET - Thursday 1/20/22

Price Projections
The table below has been fully updated.   

Trade Plan​
All the indicators tell us that it's still "Fully Bearish" right now.   (See indicator charts and analysis further below.)

However, the sell-off is unlikely to just keep going.  At some point soon, we will see the signals change to "Approaching Bullish". Until then, beware that reversal risk is high.   Price can swing rapidly in either direction since we are in an environment where dealer hedging fuels the flame of volatility.   

Futures ES NQ RTY are gaining traction and attempting to rise as we write this.  So there may be a gap up at open.  Our plan is to "sell the rip":  a quick trade via TZA to capture the last leg of the sell-off.   

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Volatility:  $VVIX $VIX $VXN $RVX
Read more about $VIX $VXN $RVX $VVIX and the effects of options and hedging on the market here.

All volatility charts are still showing "Fully Bearish" signal.  We need to see a cluster of tops similar to 10/4, or a tall sharp spike similar to 12/3 before the signal can turn "Approaching Bullish".

Hedging by Traders:  Put/Call Ratio 
The signal from P/C ratio chart is still "Fully Bearish".  We need to see 20-hour EMA blue line forms same high/lower high pattern before the signal can turn "Approaching Bullish".

Hedging by Dealers
​Below are the updated volatility trigger levels.  If price is above the trigger level, dealer hedging will change from "fueling volatility" (big price swings)  to "dampening volatility" (calm price movements).

• $SPX:  4650 
• $NDX:  15625 (updated) 
• IWM:  219 

As of this writing, all indices are below their trigger level.  So expect big price swings to continue.

The Deep January Options Expiration
On OPEX Friday 1/21, there are deep in the money calls worth over $125 billions set to expire. The magnitude of this expiration is likely a catalyst for volatility.  Even if you don't trade options, this big wave is going to rock your boat.   So we recommend that you read the full explanation of this important expiration here.

Market Breadth:  Advance-Decline Net Issues
The 20-day EMA lines on A/D charts for NYSE and Nasdaq are "Fully Bearish" as shown below.
​
The pattern for small caps currently shows that even though its A/D line is heading down, it's forming a higher low pattern.  This is a bullish divergence when compared to IWM TNA prices which have dropped hard.  

​Other Signals for Big Picture Consideration
The Dark Pool Index shows silent money has resumed buying again this week. We will closely monitor this as it could be a very early bullish divergence for stocks.

Bond volatility (MOVE index) is rising back up.   This is not a surprise given the rate fear.   This means no bullish divergence for stocks from bond messages.

Junk bonds (JNK HYG) has slowed down its rate of dropping.   Keep an eye on this as early bearish divergence.

​Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​To Read
We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing.  
1% Risk Rule
If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read:
Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term
If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read:
​The risks of investing in inverse ETFs

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion.  Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.   We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Updates  12:38 PM ET - Wednesday 1/19/22

Snapshot
$SPX $NDX IWM may be approaching the end of the sell-off.   But the end is a process, and a very choppy one usually.

The signals have not turned into "Approaching Bullish" yet.  But right now, we are observing some early spring thaw signals:

• P/C ratio and volatility are not done rising yet.   But they are also not forming the kind of patterns that indicate they're anchoring to form huge scary surge.
• A/D data improves quite a bit at the start of today for NYSE and Nasdaq stocks.   Last night, we noted that small-cap market breadth was looking better than expected.
• As of yesterday, silent money in the Dark Pool Index has resumed buying.
• Junk bond selling has contracted.  JNK HYG are forming possible W bottoms.   This is a bullish divergence signal for stocks.
• Major options expiration this Friday 1/21 which potentially resets the landscape.

Updates  12:30 AM ET - Wednesday 1/19/22

Price Projections
IWM and TNA have been updated in the table below.  

Trade Plan​
Futures are dropping hard as we write this.  So there is likely to be a big gap down at open.   All the indicators tell us that it's "Fully Bearish".   

But if there is a big gap down at open, there is always a chance of a dead cat bounce.  This is why we have not posted buy orders yet.   We will review the futures pre-market to determine if there will be a bounce for $SPX $NDX IWM, and as a result a pullback for UVXY SQQQ TZA.   

Volatility:  $VVIX $VIX $VXN $RVX
Read more about $VIX $VXN $RVX $VVIX and the effects of options and hedging on the market here.

All volatility charts are showing "Fully Bearish" signal.   

​Hedging by Dealers
​Below are the updated volatility trigger levels.  If price is above the trigger level, dealer hedging will change from "fueling volatility" (big price swings)  to "dampening volatility" (calm price movements).

• $SPX:  4650 (updated) 
• $NDX:  15725 (updated) 
• IWM:  219 

As of this writing, all indices are below their trigger level.  So expect big price swings to continue.

The Deep January Options Expiration
On OPEX Friday 1/21, there are deep in the money calls worth over $125 billions set to expire. The magnitude of this expiration is likely a catalyst for volatility.  Even if you don't trade options, this big wave is going to rock your boat.   So we recommend that you read the full explanation of this important expiration here.

Market Breadth:  Advance-Decline Net Issues
The 20-day EMA lines on A/D charts for NYSE and Nasdaq are "Fully Bearish".
But surprisingly, the pattern for small caps shows that A/D line is still trying to hang in there (see below).   

This could be an early bullish divergence, but we think it is simply too early for that.   What it does tell us though is that small caps breadth is not as horrible as one might think.   Not yet anyway.

​Other Signals for Big Picture Consideration
The Dark Pool Index shows silent money has resumed buying again on Tuesday. We will closely monitor this as it could be a very early bullish divergence for stocks.

Bond volatility (MOVE index) is rising back up.   This is not a surprise given the rate fear.   This means no bullish divergence for stocks from bond messages.

Junk bonds (JNK HYG) is dropping to retest its 1/10 low.  On the weekly chart, JNK HYG EMA lines are converging, setting up a vulnerable pattern for junk bonds.   This is a bearish warning for stocks.

​Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​To Read
We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing.  
1% Risk Rule
If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read:
Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term
If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read:
​The risks of investing in inverse ETFs

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion.  Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.   We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions.