Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 1:45 AM ET - Friday Upcoming key events Read more economic analysis here. Earnings this week Fri: AM: FUBO Mon: AM: SE GSL SOHU PM: GTLB PAY AVAV Indicators VIX dropped from 14.15 to 13.3 on Thursday, essentially staying in a tight basing range. McClellan Oscillator (Stockcharts.com $NYMO $NAMO) is still oscillating tightly around zero. Neither of the indicators are helpful right now. So we need to focus on the price actions of each chart. Key S/R levels This is still a bull market, operating in Choppy Bull mode. It may drift into Weak Bull mode after the jobs report next Friday, but we are not looking at the start of a bear market. Depending on the jobs report, the Choppy Bull may be rejuvenated to become a Strong Bull. NQ
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Our personal trade plan SOXL is still looking quite bullish. While it may dip to retest around 39, it is likely to continue marching higher rather than be stuck in a range. This is based on its price actions in the last few days. We have a buy order tentatively setup to re-enter SOXL on a dip. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.
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Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 1:45 AM ET - Thursday Upcoming key events Read more economic analysis here. Earnings this week Thu: CRON BBY | ZS DELL Fri: FUBO Key S/R levels VIX rose a bit from 13.44 to 13.9 on Wednesday. However McClellan Oscillator (Stockcharts.com $NYMO $NAMO) is still oscillating tightly around zero. Neither of the indicators are helpful right now. So we need to focus on the price actions of each chart. Key S/R levels NQ
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Our personal trade plan We plan to re-enter SQQQ if NQ retests 181444 and fails to break out above it. This trade aims to capture NQ the drop from 18144 to 17000. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 4 PM ET - Wednesday Exited SQQQ for a small profit ahead of PCE In preparation for today's trades, we posted pre-market: "To capture NQ upcoming dip, we entered a half position of SQQQ on Monday. However, we plan to exit today and try to re-enter SQQQ at a lower price when NQ retests 18144." Our SQQQ sell order got filled intraday to let us lock in a small profit ahead of PCE report Thursday at 8:30 AM ET. Earnings this week Wed: BIDU NVAX AAP TJX | MARA SNOW CRM AMC AI OKTA HPQ Thu: CRON BBY | ZS DELL Fri: FUBO Key S/R levels VIX is steadily dropping towards 12. McClellan Oscillator (Stockcharts.com $NYMO $NAMO) is oscillating tightly around zero. Neither of the indicators are helpful right now. So we need to focus on the price actions of each chart. NQ
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Our personal trade plan To capture NQ upcoming dip, we entered a half position of SQQQ on Monday. However, we plan to exit today and try to re-enter SQQQ at a lower price when NQ retests 18144. No trade planned for beyond SQQQ yet as the path looks rather twisty right now. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 1:40 AM ET - Tuesday Upcoming key events Read more economic analysis here. Earnings this week (Info courtesy of @EliteOptions2 on X) Tue: LOW NCLH M | DVN FSLR SPLK BYND LMND SPCE Wed: BIDU NVAX AAP TJX | MARA SNOW CRM AMC AI OKTA HPQ Thu: CRON BBY | ZS DELL Fri: FUBO Key S/R levels NQ
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Our personal trade plan To capture NQ dipping to 17575, we re-entered a half position of SQQQ on Monday. Once NQ has successfully tested 17575, we will look to scale into two full positions.
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 4:00 PM ET - Monday Entered into SQQQ half position Our SQQQ half position entered on Friday got stopped out today, but we re-entered at a lower price. The goal of this trade is to capture NQ dipping to 17575. Updates 11:15 PM ET - Sunday Upcoming key events The market moving report this week will be PCE on Thursday. Here are some projections by big banks.
Read more economic analysis here. Earnings this week (Info courtesy of @EliteOptions2 on X) Thursday has a lot of tech companies announcing earnings before open and after closing. This may add to more price swings for Thursday. Mon: BRK.B DPZ | U ZM WDAY Tue: LOW NCLH M | DVN FSLR SPLK BYND LMND SPCE Wed: BIDU NVAX AAP TJX | MARA SNOW CRM AMC AI OKTA HPQ Thu: CRON BBY | ZS DELL Fri: FUBO Currently in Choppy Bull mode ES NQ RTY are currently in Choppy Bull mode where we can expect a small /moderate dip. This is likely to happen early in the week, ahead of PCE Thursday. ES NQ RTY are likely to dip down to what we'll call the Choppy Bull level to retest support and find fresh buyers. Then there is a strong possibility that they will rise on Thursday to retest key resistance. If there are enough buyers, the Choppy Bull should gain enough strength to be a Strong Bull and burst through this resistance level. What will a Weak Bull look like? So far during the Strong Bull and Choppy Bull market, VIX patterns and messages have been soundly ignored. We have seen many days when ES NQ RTY rose while VIX also rose. This makes it hard to use VIX as a leading indicator. However, there will come a point when we see VIX retesting the zone around 12 and forming a base here. If this pattern shows up, and accompanied by McClellan Oscillator (Stockcharts.com $NYMO $NAMO) forming a topping pattern, then we are looking at a setup for Weak Bull mode. What this means is that ES NQ RTY will need to dip to a lower support level to find enough buyers for rejuvenate the bull. Key S/R levels NQ
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Our personal trade plan To capture NQ dipping to 17575:
Once NQ has successfully tested 17575, we will look to scale into two full positions.
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 12:30 AM ET - Friday Upcoming key events Read more economic analysis here. VIX is about to rise again... VIX daily chart below shows VIX 20-day EMA blue line has crossed over its 50-day EMA red line. As seen before (red arrows), this setup indicates VIX is likely to rise further, getting back up to retest 16 most likely. Whether VIX will get up to 18 or higher is unclear, but a retest of 16 looks like a high possibility. As VIX rises, ES NQ RTY are likely to drop to retest the levels discussed further below. Key S/R levels NQ
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Our personal trade plan We plan to trade 1/2 position of UVXY to capture VIX rising from 14 to 16. Then we will wait. Once NQ has successfully retested 17400, we will look to scale into two full sized bull positions, one for Quick Swing profit and one as a runner to capture the bigger ride. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 2:30 PM ET - Thursday Stocks up. Vol up. ES is breaking out. NQ is close to it. RTY bull is waking up again. However, VIX is also waking up and rising rapidly. In situations like this, we prefer to let the various forces duke it out and wait for the winner to emerge. Now is not the time to build new runner positions. But there are lots of opportunities for intraday swing trades if you can monitor closely and use tight stops. Updates 12:55 PM ET - Thursday Upcoming key events Read more economic analysis here. Indicators show that it's still not a Strong Bull Think of a Strong Bull as one that is closed to 100% energy level, a Choppy Bull is about 70%, and a Weak Bull is closer to 40%. They are all still bulls. It's just a matter of how much reserved energy they have to work with. Despite NVDA very robust earnings and the sharp rise in price for ES NQ RTY after NVDA announcement, the market is still not back to Strong Bull mode yet. Market breadth as measured by Advance-Decline Percentage (Stockcharts.com $SPXADP $NDXADP) is declining but less so. As a result McClellan Oscillator are slightly negative for both Nasdaq and NYSE. VIX is continuing to grind upward. VIX 20-day and 50-day EMA lines are both rising on its daily chart. VIX futures dropped sharply after NVDA earnings, but are now basing to rise again. NVDA earnings saved the day, but... Selling for Nasdaq was steady for three consecutive days (Fri, Tue, Wed) before NVDA massive earnings announcement reversed NQ into buy mode. Nevertheless NQ ES RTY did not exactly charge to the top as we write this. So bulls and bears should both be careful here as there are traps being laid. Key S/R levels NQ
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Our personal trade plan We plan to do a quick swing trade to capture the potential drop in NQ from 18121 to the zone 17373 - 17400. This may happen over the next few days. Once NQ has spent some time chopping in the zone 17373 - 17400, we will look to scale into two full positions. This big trade aim to capture the potential resumption of NQ bull trend once it breaks out of the zone 17373 - 17400. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 3:38 PM ET - Wednesday Weak Bull is emerging. How to trade? The case for the Weak Bull is looking stronger. The consequence for the Weak Bull market is that ES NQ RTY will undergo a big dip before they can be recharged sufficiently to resume the bull trend. After FOMC minutes were released: "Fed Funds futures see 70.69% odds of a cut in June, 89.16% in July and 97.18% in September". We are now in the 3rd day of steady selling (Fri, Tue, Wed). NVDA has been sold hard ahead of its earnings. NQ RTY are both down as a result. Our projection is that the Weak Bull will continue to fuel the selling. There are basically two scenarios after NVDA earnings:
Scenario 1 gives us a nice setup to enter a bear position that we can hold for multiple days. Scenario 2 is only suitable for a quick swing trade, and then you have to TMAR (Take Money and Run). A hard sharp sell at this point can set up a big bounce which will trap bear positions chasing the sell down. So for our own personal trades, we are waiting for scenario 1 setup. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 1:15 AM ET - Wednesday Upcoming key events Read more economic analysis here. Indicators hint at the coming of the Weak Bull Market breadth as measured by Advance-Decline Percentage (Stockcharts.com $SPXADP $NDXADP) is declining. This turned McClellan Oscillator back down, likely to prolong the negative mode for a few weeks. The other market breadth indicator, percentage of stocks above 200-day MA (Stockcharts.com $SPXADP $NDXADP $SPXA200R $NDXA200R), is also showing a sharp down turn, especially for Nasdaq. VIX is continuing to grind upward. VIX 20-day and 50-day EMA lines are both rising on its daily chart. VIX is very likely to retest 18, and may reach 20 by mid March. Market direction comes after NVDA earnings NVDA earnings after closing today will be the key market mover, especially for Nasdaq. During trading hours on Wednesday, we may see ES NQ and maybe RTY attempt to make a small bounce that tests Tuesday's trading range. The big move though is likely to come after NVDA earnings is released after market closes. If NVDA earnings exceeds expectation, ES NQ RTY are likely to retest their February highs in an attempt to break out to new high. But this retest is likely to fail, and this failure will result in a big dip for ES NQ RTY. If NVDA earnings disappoints, there will be an immediate sharp drop. Either way, market is setting up for a big dip for ES NQ RTY. Key S/R levels NQ
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Our personal trade plan We don't plan to trade intraday Wednesday, but if you want to, trade just half position with the SOXL setup shown in the spreadsheet. This trade captures a quick bounce for SOXL after it retests Tue low. Exit by end of day before NVDA earnings. After NVDA earnings, NQ may rise to 18121 to form a top before dropping into a big dip. We are waiting for this setup to capture the potential drop in NQ from 18121 to 17165 that may happen over the next several days. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 10:45 PM ET - Monday Upcoming key events This is a short and light week in terms of economic reports. NVDA earnings after closing on Wednesday will be the key market mover, especially for Nasdaq. Read more economic analysis here. Earnings this week (Chart courtesy of Earnings Whispers) It is still a bull market McClellan Oscillator for both NYSE and Nasdaq (Stockcharts.com $NYMO $NAMO) continue to rise higher into positive territory with higher low rising bottoms as shown below. As long as this oscillator is positive, it is technically still a bull market. But VIX is likely to turn market into a Choppy Bull or even a Weak Bull VIX futures are up tonight as we write this. Based on this we expect VIX to rise up to retest 15.45 on Tuesday. We may see VIX stay above 13.75 and retest 15.5 more than once. From this 2nd test, we may see VIX surge up to the zone 17 - 18 again. Key S/R levels NQ:
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Pre-market on Friday, we wrote: "Note that the Russell 2000 is up 34 points for the year. SMCI accounts for 26 points of that or a whopping 76%. The remaining 1,956 stocks have added 24% to this index. So if SMCI comes crashing back down at some point, the pain to RTY $RUT will be high." SMCI did in fact have a big bearish day, dropping from 1078 before market to 801 by end of day Friday. RTY responded with a big drop of its own. Friday may have been a key pivot day for the overly bullish FOMO trade that started since early January. The downward pressure on SMCI is high, which means the downward pressure on RTY will be high as well. NVDA earnings after closing on Wednesday will either revert this bearishness, or fuel more selling. Our personal trade plan We don't want to overtrade or trade with full size positions during this choppy period. We have 2 setups shown in the spreadsheet, one bull and one bear. We may have to be out of the office on Tuesday, but you can use these setups to guide your own trades. We recommend small positions and make no more than 2 attempts to capture the choppy swings. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 12:40 PM ET - Friday Hot PPI + OpEx + Profit taking = big price swings Technically the market is still in Strong Bull mode because VIX is not basing to rise yet. Breadth dropped today, but not so much that it would cause McClellan Oscillator (Stockcharts.com $NYMO $NAMO) to swing into negative zone. Here are the other factors that appear to be affecting the market right now.
We tested the water with a half position of UVXY right after PPI report, but that did not result in anything so we got out at breakeven. We are not seeing any bullish intraday setup to scale into new bull runner positions. This is why we did not want to place a buy order for SOXL. We had a couple of very successful trades this month. We actually have to be careful here and not overtrade. Trading in this environment can bring lead to some quick losses and giving back our hard earned profit to the market again. We are trying hard not to let FOMO be the primary reason to enter the trade. Have a great long weekend. Next post will be in preparation for Tuesday. Updates 1:00 AM ET - Friday Upcoming key events Given that CPI was hotter than expected, market may have a big reaction to PPI results as well. Read more economic analysis here. Strong Bull mode in effect McClellan Oscillator for both NYSE and Nasdaq (Stockcharts.com $NYMO $NAMO) pushed up higher in positive zones. This tells us that market breadth continues to improve, and provides bullish support for EQ NQ RTY. VIX tried to climb higher on Thursday but did not get any higher than 14.64. Still based on VIX futures actions tonight, VIX might sill try to get up to 15.5 before topping out for the short term. Overall VIX is telling us that volatility is declining, and is providing bullish support for EQ NQ RTY. What will turn the Strong Bull into a Choppy Bull? When VIX gets down to 12, if VIX bases and then rises again, then it is likely to retest 18. Key S/R levels NQ:
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Note that the Russell 2000 is up 34 points for the year. SMCI accounts for 26 points of that or a whopping 76%. The remaining 1,956 stocks have added 24% to this index. So if SMCI comes crashing back down at some point, the pain to RTY $RUT will be high. Our personal trade plan We plan to open a new SOXL runner position. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. |
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