Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 2:05 PM EST- Tuesday 6/1/21 Big Bull up swing approaching the end
Updates 12:00 AM EST- Tuesday 6/1/21 Perspective This coming week is about job data (Wed, Thu, Fri), and Jerome Powell speaking on Friday. The central questions are still the same. What is the true state of inflation? When is the Fed going to start tapering? Here are some numbers to keep in mind from WSJ: Inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, and are watched closely by the Fed. One-year consumer inflation expectations reached 4.6% in May. However, long-run expectations of 3% are still only the highest since 2013, and unlikely to bother the Fed much, while the Treasury market’s long-term break-even inflation rate remains close to the Fed’s target of 2%. These, along with economists’ forecasts, should be watched closely. If expectations stop being anchored to the Fed’s target, policy makers will worry a lot. Our analysis tells us that $SPX $NDX IWM are technically still in an up trend, and the Big Bull up swing that started on 5/19 is still intact. But we should expect this up swing to wind down soon, possibly towards the end of this week, with Friday being the day of the job report and Jerome Powell speaking. Note that while we expect that the Big Bull up swing for $SPX $NDX IWM to end possibly by end of this week, we are not expecting a crash. At most we'll get another Big Bear down swing similar to $NDX down swing from 4/29 to 5/12. $VIX $VXN $RVX need to build up their anchors at key levels before they can really surge. Without volatility surging, we don't really have crash conditions. Table of Support & Resistance Zones The S/R table has been partially updated. $VIX
$SPX As $VIX is likely to gap up at open, we are likely to see $SPX gaps down a bit at open. There is a high probability that $SPX will retest its new green support zone, before marching up some more. The orange resistance zone is likely to be a challenge for $SPX to surpass in the short term. We may see the current Big Bull up swing ends in this zone. $VXN $NDX $RVX IWM Signal Trades
We plan to continue holding Big Bull TQQQ SOXL positions until they reach their orange resistance zones. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions.
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Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 2:07 PM EST- Friday 5/28/21 Big Bull up swing still intact The Big Bull up swing that started on 5/19 for $SPX $NDX IWM is still intact.
We are holding Big Bull TQQQ SOXL positions over the weekend, but have taken a tiny profit from Quick Bull TNA position. Updates 2:30 AM EST- Friday 5/28/21 Perspective The economy certainly looks to be improving. From WSJ: Data Thursday showed that worker filings for jobless benefits fell again to a new pandemic low.... A separate report showed that U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 6.4% annual rate in the first quarter, the same as in an initial estimate. And Washington is still on track to deliver more money: Senate Republicans presented a $928 billion plan to the White House, narrowing the gap with the Biden administration’s latest $1.7 trillion offer. Against this backdrop are two major concerns: inflation and the fact that the good economics news may have already been priced into stocks. However, stocks do typically climb a wall of worry. And right now $SPX $NDX IWM are still climbing up in their Big Bull up swing that started on 5/19. We will share the charts with you below, but know that overall there are no firm signs that the up swing is done yet. There is still a good chance that $SPX $NDX IWM will retest their orange resistance zones next week. Table of Support & Resistance Zones The green zones have been updated for IWM TNA. All others remain the same. $VIX $VIX is steadily dropping as shown on its 2-hour chart below. $VIX may rise a bit on Friday, but unless there is some really bad news, $VIX is unlikely to rise above the descending 20 EMA blue line (around 18). The current pattern makes such a sharp rise difficult. $SPX $SPX is actually forming a nice gentle upward coiling pattern. Future (ES) is up as we write this, so we may see a small gap up at open on Friday. Then we may see intraday pullback to retest the 4200 level, before $SPX attempts to climb higher. There is a high probability that $SPX will retest the orange resistance zone next week. We show the green support zone on the chart below as strong short-term support for $SPX. If for some reason $SPX drops below this zone, then it is likely to go all the way back to 5/19 low at the bottom of the yellow channel. Nasdaq Advance/Decline Issues $VXN Similar to $VIX, $VXN is steadily dropping. It may rise up on Friday a bit, but unless there is some really bad news, $VXN doesn't have enough momentum in the current configuration to rise above its 20 EMA blue line (near 23). $NDX $NDX has been going sideway since Tuesday, and this suggests that $NDX may need to drop lower in order bring in more buyers. While this possibility exists, we want to point out that $NDX major components are up as evident in $SOX, FNGU, and ARKK. These have all been marching up more steadily than $NDX. So with its A/D line turning bullish, and no real major bearishness in $VXN pattern, we have to go with the conclusion that $NDX is likely to rise, after some minor dip. If $NDX does dip, it may get as low as its 20 EMA red line shown below. And it does have very strong support at the green support zone below that. $RVX Similar to $VIX $VXN, $RVX is steadily dropping. In fact it has dropped below its key level which was 23.55. This is a bullish sign. $RVX may rise up on Friday a bit, but unless there is some really bad news, $RVX doesn't have enough momentum in the current configuration to rise above its 20 EMA blue line (near 25). IWM IWM has a lot of bullish momentum currently, due to the enthusiasm of retail traders buying meme stocks. IWM is likely going to reach its orange resistance zone early next week. It may even reach its April high soon after that. However, IWM and TNA reaching this high still does not mean that TZA is done with its bearish message. So while we want to capture the current bullish rise, we need to stay alert and continue to monitor TZA to see if it carries out the highly bearish message. Some times a major pullback comes after a new all-time high. Take a look at $NDX chart back in February 2020. This is why we only entered 1/2 position TNA so far, and why we labeled it Quick Bull. We want to capture the current sharp rise, but we don't have confirmation it can go to a new all-time high. Signal Trades
We plan to continue holding Big Bull TQQQ SOXL positions until they reach their orange resistance zones. Same with Quick Bull TNA. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 1:53 PM EST- Thursday 5/27/21 Big Bull up swing still intact $SPX $NDX IWM are all marching up as part of their Big Bull up swing that started on 5/19. The up swing is still intact, boosted by the positive job report this morning. We want to clarify that in the big picture context, TZA chart is sending out bearish warnings. But at the moment, TZA is not ready to surge just yet, and meanwhile IWM TNA continue to march up. That is why we entered TNA this morning. We are only trading 1/2 position TNA right now, and it is a Quick Bull trade. We think IWM TNA have the momentum to reach their orange resistance zones soon. Updates 2:00 AM EST- Thursday 5/27/21 Perspective $SPX $NDX hardly moved on Wednesday as $VIX $VXN contracted. Meanwhile IWM surged at open and kept on marching. This supposedly is due to a huge short squeeze. Here is a list of Wednesday's gain for the most shorted stocks. It is quite impressive. However, there are some interesting things going on under the hood. Since the charts of $SPX $NDX IWM $VIX $VXN $RVX have not changed much, we are going to look at some supplementary charts tonight. They provide quite insightful clues. Table of Support & Resistance Zones IWM and TNA have been updated in the S/R table. All others are the same. Nasdaq Advance - Decline Issues Nasdaq A/D line has been marching up bullishly since mid-May. The key is for the yellow A/D line to cross over the red 50-day EMA line. That would be highly bullish for $NDX. Equity Put/Call Ratio As the chart below shows, the equity put/call ratio is trending down. This is bullish for stocks in general. SQQQ Observe the tops formed by SQQQ above it 200 EMA green line. These tops provide highly bullish setups for $NDX to continue rising (as SQQQ continues to drop.). There is still room for SQQQ to drop some more, which means $NDX has a chance to rise some more. $NDX So $NDX is still in a bullish setup in the short term. But $NDX weekly chart does not look so good. Its bearish divergence between RSI and price is a real concern. In the big picture context, $NDX is vulnerable to a major pullback or a crash even. But "vulnerable" is a state that can last for quite a while. So while we should factor the big-picture risks into our long-term investment decisions, for the short-term trades, it is not time to bet against $NDX yet. SVXY SVXY is the inverse of UVXY. SVXY can be a very useful proxy to gauge $SPX ability to rise higher, or to face imminent drop from surging $VIX. In the chart below, observe the four major anchors that SVXY formed below its 200 EMA green line. Each time it formed one of these major anchors, SVXY surged quite a bit higher afterwards. SVXY has just formed the 4th anchor on May 19. Typically SVXY does not form more than 5 anchors before it reverses into a major drop. A major drop is one where the 200 EMA green line heads downward. If SVXY drops a lot, UVXY will surge hugely, and $SPX will drop substantially. So it is important to pay attention to SVXY as it can be easier to predict with this chart than with UVXY or $VIX. TZA We are actually nervous about the pattern that TZA is forming. See chart below for explanations. TZA (like SQQQ UVXY SPXS) suffers from contango. That's why its chart drops very sharply compares to TNA upward moves. It take a lot for TZA to be able to form a large base over multiple weeks. And this is what TZA has done since March 12. This tells us that TZA is forming a pattern that sets it up to surge in a big way. If that happens to TZA, small caps will drop a lot, and drag the rest of the market down. Signal Trades We have added more to our Big Bull TQQQ SOXL positions on Wednesday. We plan to hold these positions at least until $NDX reaches its April high. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 2:00 AM EST- Wednesday 5/26/21 Perspective A member asked about the sudden surge in demand for the Fed's reverse repo program. Before proceeding, please read this article for more in-depth background explanation about the current RPP situation. The big-picture implication seems to be this. Banks and money market mutual funds are telling the Fed that there is just too much liquidity in the system, and it is time to dial back. European Central Banks are starting to discuss slowing down QE, according to Mohamed El-Erian. But the US Fed is not there yet, especially Jerome Powell. Having already waited for too long, the Fed faces a tricky policy pivot...The pivot involves the twin risks of market volatility and loss of Fed credibility. Yet the alternative of dogmatically holding on to a backward-looking policy stance would threaten far greater damage. There is increasing risk building up in the financial system from too much liquidity. The market is getting more vulnerable with problems building up under the hood. It is like a growing pile of dry wood, ready to burn. But it needs a spark. So far it has survived a few sparks: Archegos, GameStop, sudden yield rise, and the current crypto crash. The final spark will come at the most unexpected moment, and hardly anyone will be able to precisely predict the moment when the right spark will light up the market fire. But we should be able to sniff out the smoke early in the form of volatility. Table of Support & Resistance Zones IWM and TNA have been updated in the S/R table. All others are the same. $VIX On Tuesday, $VIX formed a clear anchor to rise as shown below. Don't panic. Yesterday we discussed how it would actually be bullish if $VIX forms a series of up/down coiling moves. It appears that $VIX is getting ready to do just that with this anchor to rise. So below we show the ideal $VIX move that would actually provide a great bullish setup for $SPX. Of course, if $VIX suddenly surges higher than 29 than $SPX will have a really major pullback. But that scenario is unlikely to happen right now. $SPX $VXN Similar to $VIX, $VXN anchored to rise on Tuesday. Below we show the ideal scenario where $VXN would provide a bullish setup for $NDX. If $VXN doesn't manage to get up that high, we'll have to just enter TQQQ SOXL wherever $VXN forms a short-term spiky top. $NDX $RVX Similar to $VIX and $VXN, $RVX anchored to rise on Tuesday. Below is the ideal scenario that we are looking for. IWM We'll be monitoring IWM closely if it drops down to the updated green support zone and attempts to rise again. If IWM does not manage to rise above its 200 EMA green line, it could be starting a major pullback. On the other hand, if IWM does get up above this key pivot line, then it is likely to retest the updated orange resistance zone. Signal Trades We will add more to our Big Bull TQQQ SOXL positions when $VXN forms a short-term top as discussed above. We plan to hold these positions until $VXN signals that it intends on rising in a big way. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 9:33 AM EST- Tuesday 5/25/21 Minor dip likely ES NQ RTY are all showing RSI with bearish divergence from price. So we do expect a minor dip some time today. We'll be monitoring that for the opportunity to add to our Big Bull TQQQ SOXL positions. We're also letting the morning volatility settles before putting stops back in place. Updates 1:30 AM EST- Tuesday 5/25/21 Table of Support & Resistance Zones The S/R table has been partially updated. $VXN Our concern about $VXN is that it is dropping rather rapidly. It may land at 20.21 in 1-2 days and then starts to go sideway, similar to early February. If that happens, $NDX may not be able to rise much further after 1-2 more days. We'll have to monitor this closely. $NDX Ideally $NDX will get enough time and support from declining $VXN in order for $NDX to rise up and retests the orange resistance zone. But as we discussed above, $NDX may not reach this level if $VXN drops down very quickly and then starts to go sideway. On Tuesday, look for $NDX to retest the green support zone first before attempting to rise up again. $VIX $VIX is dropping fairly rapidly, and should continue heading down towards 15.4. However, as in the case of $VXN, bulls should hope for some coiling moves, up and down candles similar to (A) and (B) on the charts below. This would create more opportunities for new buyers to come in, helping $SPX to rise higher. $SPX $SPX is likely to retest the green support zone on Tuesday. This is a fairly important pivot level. If $SPX anchors successfully here, it should be able to reach or surpass the orange resistance zone later this week. $RVX Similar to $VXN, $RVX doesn't have much further to go before it reaches the pivot level of 23. There is a chance that $RVX may start to rise up, similar to (A) on the chart below. IWM / RTY So the setup presented by $RVX isn't bullish for IWM. And certainly IWM chart patterns have been inscrutable in terms of its intention. So for today, we'd like to share with you RTY chart. RTY is Russell future so it tracks closely with IWM. However, observe the bullish cluster of tiny rising hammers on RTY chart below. That tells us that RTY may surge very soon. This certainly contradicts with the message from small-caps volatility $RVX potentially rising soon. So keep an eye on $RVX IWM RTY. We suspect a new formation will emerge soon. Signal Trades
We will add more to our Big Bull TQQQ SOXL positions if the dip is big enough. Though we are mentally prepared for the fact that the Big Bull up swing may be end before TQQQ SOXL reach their April highs. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 3:22 PM Monday 5/24/21 Big Bull up swing still intact $SPX $NDX IWM all gapped up this morning. The buying momentum has been strong for $SPX $NDX especially. This Big Bull up swing is behaving according to our projection posted at 8:28 PM Sunday. In Signal Trades, we took advantage of the morning rise and exited TNA. As we explained in the earlier post today, IWM has not correlated bullishly with the decline in $RVX. So we've got to step aside from this one. $NDX and $SPX are following a highly bullish pattern. Their current Big Bull up swing will likely remain intact until $VXN gets close to 20, and $VIX gets close to 15.4. $NDX $SPX may gap up on Tuesday morning. Then we may see some minor profit taking and minor dips. We will add more to our Big Bull TQQQ SOXL positions if the dip is big enough. Updates 8:28 PM EST- Sunday (for Monday 5/24/21) Perspective According to WSJ: Several Federal Reserve officials said Friday that the day is approaching when the central bank will dial back the stimulus it is providing the U.S. economy, but they didn’t say when. The Fed is clearly warming up the investor mindsets to transition to a tighter monetary policy. It won't be "if". It will be "when". This key decision will continue to loom over the economy, and will be watched closely at the upcoming FOMC announcement on 6/16. More Fed speakers are scheduled for this coming week. Some closely watched economics reports will be: Tue: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, New Home Sales Thu: Durable Goods Orders, GDP, Jobless Claims Fri: Personal Income & Outlays Friday's report is quite important as it is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Friday may be a volatile day for all assets as all markets are closed on Monday 5/31 for Memorial Day. While the Fed waits for their official data, most consumers will say it feels like rampant inflation is already here, in the price of houses, cars, food, and basic commodities. Don't forget the staggering costs of higher education and healthcare. However, we've been observing that the following traditional inflation havens appear to have formed tops and have been dropping in the last couple weeks:
Real gold (GLD) is still standing, while digital gold (BTC, ETH, DOGE) is heading to the abyss instead of the moon. The most interesting charts though are those of Treasury bonds (TLT, IEF). They have been anchoring at support for the last several weeks, and appear to be ready to rise. This means important yields like US 10-year are likely to drop. To us, this means that investors are not as concerned about long-term inflation as the headlines would have us believed. In the short term, it may mean that the rotation into commodities and value stocks that started in late 2020 are fading. Instead we may start to see the rotation back into technology. Confirmations of this thesis are on the charts of TSLA and ARKK, the bellwether of tech risk takers. They both formed nice bullish hammers at key support levels on their weekly charts. Table of Support & Resistance Zones The S/R table has not changed since Friday. $VXN While $VXN may rise some amount on Monday, as long as $VXN continues to form lower highs and not rise above 29.5, $NDX is likely to continue its upward march. However, at some point, $VXN may get stuck and not be able to drop below 20. In response $NDX may get stuck and not be able to rise above its 4/29 high. $NDX The most recent key pivot date for $NDX was 5/19 when it launched into a Big Bull up swing. As long as $VXN continues to form lower highs, $NDX up swing may last until 6/16 - 6/17. Note that the march upward won't be straightforward. There will be shallow dips to anchor at short-term support to bring in new buyers. We may see that kind of dip on Monday morning. $VIX Like $VXN, $VIX is likely to rise some amount on Monday. But as long as $VIX doesn't exceed 26, $SPX Big Bull up swing remains intact. However, like $VXN it is a finite ride. $VIX is unlikely to drop below 15.4 any time soon. $SPX $RVX $RVX has been sending out straightforward messages on its chart. It went down in March and April. And it went up in May. IWM But IWM has not responded correspondingly to $RVX messages. Instead IWM has been going sideway since March. This makes it hard to declare that IWM has formed a Big Bull up swing due to $RVX dropping. We think IWM is likely to rise this week after a minor dip on Monday. But it isn't likely to break out above the high of 5/7 this week. IWM may continue the smaller swings to really flatten out its 20 and 50-day EMA. After that though we may see a big IWM breakout or breakdown starting around 6/16 - 6/17. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 2:22 PM EST- Friday 5/21/21 Up swing still intact
So the primary elements to keep the up swing that started on 5/19 in tact are still place. We are holding our positions as they are, not manually entering any additional positions right now. The buy orders may go unfilled today. We prefer to have lesser exposure over the weekend. We'll look to scale in more on Monday. Updates 2:00 AM EST- Friday 5/21/21 Perspective $VIX $VXN $RVX are all showing lower high topping patterns. This means volatility is heading down. This supports the continuation of a short-term up swing for $NDX $SPX IWM. They are likely to revisit their April - May highs over the next few weeks into June. However, this market has gone into risk-off mode somewhat due to the crypto crash. Traders may not have extra bitcoins jingling in their pockets right now to make them want to take more risks and go to the moon. So while $NDX $SPX IWM are unlikely to crash, or even a revisit their 5/19 lows, there is no indication that $NDX $SPX IWM will easily surpass their April - May highs. Table of Support & Resistance Zones The S/R table has been fully updated. $VXN $VXN daily chart below shows a lower-high top, which is a highly bullish confirmation for $NDX to rise. $NDX The rally on Thursday may have burned off some of the fuel for the upward momentum. $NDX may have to retest its new green support zone to bring in more buyers. Once $NDX vaults back over its 200-hour EMA green line, it is capable of coiling its way up, over the next couple weeks to reach its April high again. While we hope for $NDX to retest the green zone to give us a low-risk entry point, we need to be prepared for the gap-up scenario on Friday morning. This would require a different entry strategy to go long $NDX, depending on how NQ pattern shapes up overnight. $VIX $VIX has formed the same bullish topping formation as $NDX. This provides strong tailwinds for $SPX to continue rising, back to its May high. $SPX Similar to $NDX, $SPX may have to retest its green support zone on Friday to bring in new buyers. Or it may gap up overnight. That data is unclear at the moment. $RVX $RVX lower-high tops should provide bullish tailwinds for IWM to rise up. IWM However, IWM is still in a sideway range technically (since 2/10). And while it may rise up over its 200 EMA green line, it may not be able to surpass the orange resistance zone shown below. Signal Trades In Signal Trades, we posted our Big Bull buy orders for TQQQ and SOXL, and adjusted Quick Bull TNA sell orders. We'll have to see if they gap up pre-market, which will require adjustments to the orders. Note that while we show TQQQ and SOXL reaching their April highs as the end goal, they may not do so. The key indicator for to exit these positions is $VXN $RVX $VIX all forming a base to rise. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 2:30 AM EST- Thursday 5/20/21 Perspective The crypto market crash may have contributed to the risk-off mood and the overnight sell-off in futures on Wednesday. However, as we pointed out early Wednesday, $VIX $VXN $RVX and market internals did not confirm that stocks were heading for a true crash. In fact, $SPX $NDX IWM bounced quite a bit. By end of day, $VIX $VXN $RVX still maintained their lower high formations. As of this writing, futures are in a tight range. Again, no signs of stocks crashing in the short term. Table of Support & Resistance Zones The S/R table has been partially updated. $VXN $NDX While $VXN is forming lower highs, $NDX is still having trouble vaulting over the orange resistance zone. There is a chance that $NDX may end up going sideway, bouncing between its orange resistance zone and its green support zone. This may last into next week. $VIX $SPX $RVX IWM Like $SPX and $NDX, IWM may bounce between its orange resistance zone and its green support zone for the next few days while looking for buyers. Signal Trades
Given that $SPX $NDX IWM are likely to be in a range, we are open to the possibility of trading Quick Bull SOXL or Quick Bear SQQQ on Thursday. Additionally if it's a bullish setup, we may add Quick Bull TNA. We'll be looking for low-risk setups to determine the trades. We will update the spreadsheet with buy orders at that point. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 10:22 AM EST- Wednesday 5/19/21 Market Internals A/D lines: very negative, but Nasdaq A/D cumulative line is may be close to forming a base. Equity put/call ratio: The EMA lines on this chart are forming a nice top, which is bullish for equity. Volatility: $VIX $VXN $RVX are all forming lower high tops. So the short-term top may be in for now. We are tracking RSI values on 30-min charts. Rising RSI while prices are down is a lovely bullish divergence. In summary, conditions are turning bullish under the hood. At least bullish for a short-term good size bounce. We'll update Signal Trades for an entry once RSI shows the bullish divergence pattern that we are seeking. NOTE: No updates to S/R table for now, as the current levels are still important. Updates 9:31 AM EST- Wednesday 5/19/21 Bearish with headfakes The selloff in futures has been steady, so while we may see a light bounce at the green support zones, they are no longer strong support for a Big Bull entry. We will post new S/R table this morning. $VIX has surged overnight, though it is still in a lower-high formation. Tread lightly here because current market is not settled. It is not ready to revert upward for real, or fully crash just yet. We'll update Signal Trades shortly. Updates 2:30 AM EST- Wednesday 5/19/21 Table of Support & Resistance Zones The S/R table has not changed. $VXN $NDX Yesterday we discussed the sideway scenario for $NDX $SPX IWM. After Tuesday's price actions, and the setup formed by $VXN above, we still have to consider the possibility that $NDX may drop down to its green support zone. Therefore, these are the low-risk setups to test bullish $NDX entry:
$VIX $SPX $RVX IWM Signal Trades In Signal Trades we are going to leave the buy targets as is, but will adjust if $NDX forms an intermediate level of support. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. Click here for latest Signal Trades. Updates 2:30 AM EST- Tuesday 5/18/21 Table of Support & Resistance Zones IWM and TNA orange resistance zone have been updated in the S/R table below. Everything else is the same. The green support zone is where this current major pullback may end. The orange resistance zone is short-term strong resistance level. $VXN $NDX In yesterday's post, we discussed the scenario where $NDX may quickly drop down to anchor in its green support zone, in order to bring in new buyers to really rise up. However, we should also consider the sideway range scenario discussed below. If $VXN is going to contract and form a gradual series of lower highs, $NDX is very likely going to contract into a range while forming a gradual series of higher lows. $VIX $SPX If $VIX is going to contract and form a gradual series of lower highs, $SPX is very likely going to contract into the range between its 50 EMA red line and its green support zone. $RVX IWM If $RVX is going to contract and form a gradual series of lower highs, IWM is very likely going continue it sideway moves, crisscrossing above and below its 200 EMA green line. Signal Trades The most important thing to keep in mind is this. $NDX $SPX IWM are all likely going to rise into a biggish up swing at some point in the next couple weeks. Some time in June, $SPX is likely to revisit is May high, $NDX its April high, and IWM its March high. The odds of $NDX $SPX IWM dropping substantially lower than their 5/12 low is quite low. It's easy to position ourselves to enter long when $NDX $SPX IWM retest their 5/12 lows. But the sideway scenario outlined above is a tougher one to determine the entry point. And there is a good chance that $NDX $SPX IWM are going to go sideway. The lessons learned from $NDX sideway moves in March is this. We have to scale into Big Bull positions gradually, perhaps spread out over a few days, instead of jumping in all at once. In Signal Trades we are going to leave the buy targets as is, but we plan to adjust them once the sideway pattern emerges. We also will look to exit Quick Bull SQQQ at breakeven or hopefully a small profit. Click here for Signal Trades. To Read We urge you to read this article about risk management and position sizing. 1% Risk Rule If you are new to trading 3x leveraged ETFs like TQQQ TNA SOXL FNGU, read: Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term If you are new to trading inverse ETFs like SQQQ TZA SOXS FNGD, read: The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. |
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