Multi-week bull signal: mixed
These two indicators below are giving us some conflicting signals.

• For Nasdaq, the multi-week bull signal had started to fade by 6/21, and was technically done by 6/23.
• For S&P, the multi-week bull signal had started to fade by 6/20, and was technically done by 6/23, but now seems to have been revived temporarily.

While S&P still has some bullishness in it, because the signals are mixed, it's probably a prudent move to protect any multi-week bull positions you have, and don't consider initiating new multi-week bull positions at this point.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 1:00 AM ET - Thursday 6/29/23

We have been analyzing and refining our signals to make them more useful.  We found that there is strong correlation between our indicators and the multi-month and multi-week signals.  Multi-day is the least correlated.  But we have found 2 oscillators that work well for quick bull/bear signals.   Read more below.

Multi-month bull signal intact
These two indicators below tell us that the bull market that started last October remains intact.   

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 12:10 PM ET - Wednesday 6/28/23

Quick Bull:  TNA and SOXL
The bull market is still intact, but the multi-week and multi-day bull signals are done.  So we are allowed only Quick Bull trades right now.

• We closed TNA to lock in profit before market opened today.
• We traded SOXL for a quick bull rise and aggressively raised stop to lock in profit.​

Our personal trade plan
As our trade plan showed for Tuesday, we scaled into a quick bull TNA position to capture its bounce back up to retest its June 14 high.   We don't think TNA will succeed in surpassing this high.  So we plan to scale out before this high is reached.

We also have a setup to scale into SVIX for multi-day bull trade when the multi-day bull signal comes back, most likely when VIX retests 17 and market breadth confirms the renewed bullishness.
​
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​​

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates  4 PM ET - Tuesday 6/27/23

Entered quick bull TNA per trade plan
​At 1:15 AM today we wrote: "We currently have a setup we're looking for to scale into TNA for a quick bull trade. "

​And we sent out alert this morning as we scaled into TNA.

​Multi-day Signal Indicators:  Multi-day bull signal is done for now
Background info on $VIX, $VVIX, SVXY, UVXY, ES, NQ RTY

Since June 8 when VVIX 20-hr and 50-hr started to rise, the multi-day bull signal had been teetering.  By June 16, market breadth confirmed that the multi-day bull signal is likely done.  Now it is officially done with all the other indicators joining in.

Analysis and projections
The bull market that started last October is still intact.  But the multi-day and multi-week bull signals are done for now.  The door is now open for VIX to start rising some amount.  But it does NOT mean that the market is going to crash.  It does NOT mean that we will see a really big drop for ES NQ RTY any time soon.

ES NQ RTY have been dropping since June 16, and are now very close to S1.  ES NQ RTY are likely to bounce from current zone to retest close to R1.  They are unlikely to surpass R1 at this point, and this retest will set up a lower high top for the next leg down.

While ES NQ RTY bounce to retest R1, VIX is likely to drop down to retest 12.9 - 13.

For the full projection, please reread this weekend's post.

Our personal trade plan
So how do we trade now?  

• Bulls can do a quick bull trade to capture the bounce described above.
• Bears can pursue a quick bear trade when ES NQ RTY fail to rise above R1, and drop down to S1 again.

We currently have a setup we're looking for to scale into TNA for a quick bull trade.   We also have a setup to scale into SVIX for multi-day bull trade when the multi-day bull signal comes back, most likely when VIX retests 17.
​
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​​

​Earnings this week
Chart courtesy of Earnings Whispers.

​Analysis and projections
The bull market that started last October is still intact.  But the multi-day and multi-week bull signals are done for now.   So what does that mean?

It means that the door is now open for VIX to start rising some amount.  But it does NOT mean that the market is going to crash.  It does NOT mean that we will see a really big drop for ES NQ RTY any time soon.

In fact, the very first thing that is likely to happen this week is a retest of June 16 high for ES NQ RTY.   Then we may see VIX getting a few anxiety spikes where it rises a moderate amount.  The likely path for VIX is:

• VIX rises up to 15, but then retests 13 again.
• VIX then rises up to 16, but then retests 13 again.
• VIX then rises up to 17, but then retests 13 again.

While VIX does this, ES NQ RTY may gradually grind down to the zone between S1 and S2.   

After a few of these anxiety spikes, we may see VIX get a real fear spike where it can surge up to 20.  ES NQ RTY may drop to S2 or even lower as a result.  The timing of this will depend on some kind of bad news external trigger.  This may happen after FOMC rate announcement on July 26.

The good news is after a real fear spike, there's a good chance that the multi-week bull signal will restart again, and it can last for more than 2 months.

If there is no real fear spike where VIX can rise up to 20, and VIX simply starts to drop after spiking up to 16-17, then a multi-week bull signal will restart, but it may only last for one month.

So bulls should hope for some real fear.  Fear brings out put buyers, thereby setting up the stage for a short squeeze.  A substantial short squeeze will bring in FOMO call buyers who will push ES NQ RTY up higher.

Our personal trade plan
So how do we trade now?  

• Bulls should look for opportunities to buy the dip when VIX rises to 15, and exit when VIX retests 13 again.  Until we get a new multi-week bull signal, don't build up holding for big bull positions yet.
• Bears can pursue more bear trades, but keep the positions small and take profit quickly.  Do not build up any big bear position right now.  Holding that can be very painful if we get a sudden short squeeze.

We currently have buy orders to scale into just one SVIX position when it gets down below its 20-day EMA blue line, and VIX bounces up to 15.   This position aims to capture SVIX rise to retest its high from June 22.
​
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​

Multi-day Signal Indicators:  Multi-day bull signal is done for now
Background info on $VIX, $VVIX, SVXY, UVXY, ES, NQ RTY

While the multi-week bull signal remains intact, the multi-day bull signal was technically done starting on June 8.   Why June 8?   Because that's when VVIX 20-hr and 50-hr started to rise.

However, as we all know, VIX and SVXY SVIX all ignored the bearish messages from VVIX.  SVXY and SVIX have both been rising sharply while VIX has been dropping sharply, which means conditions are very bullish for them.   In our experience, VVIX usually wins in the end.  It may be early, but it has been firm in its message: "multi-day bull signal is done for now."

So when will the multi-day bull signal restart?   When VVIX rises up to the zone around 111, and VIX rises up to the zone 16-17.   Until then we don't want to initiate new multi-day bull positions.

Multi-day Signal Indicators:  Choppy conditions
Background info on $VIX, $VVIX, SVXY, UVXY, ES, NQ RTY

While the multi-week bull signal remains intact, the multi-day bull signal was done starting on Friday June 16.   ES NQ RTY each had a small dip.   Now comes the tricky part.   

VIX has now dropped down to 13.12, a level last seen in the heyday of early 2020, before the COVID crash.  Conditions like this tend to bring out pundits who will declare that either VIX is dead, or it will go on like this forever.   Just look at VIX weekly charts for the last 10 years and you will see it's not going to be the case.   VIX will surprise us all when we least expect it.

At this point, bears should root for a sharp drop in VIX.  Something that would bring it down to 11 or so.  That typically sets the stage for a sharp rise in VIX as traders will step in to buy more insurance when VIX is so cheap.  As VIX begins to rise, the multi-week bull signal will end.

Bulls should root for VIX to spike up from current level to 16-17 as soon as possible.  That will rejuvenate the multi-week bull signal. It will create room for VIX to grind downward for another several weeks. 

The possibility of VIX continuing to drop some more is still high.  So look for ES NQ RTY to finish the current dip on Thursday and make an attempt to retest Friday's high (June 16) by Friday or Monday.

After that, we may see ES NQ RTY drop again lower to S1.​

​Key S/R levels
All levels remain the same.​

Our personal trade plan
We currently have buy orders to scale into 2 SVIX positions when it gets down closer to its 20-day EMA blue line.  Note that we're scaling in a pretty wide zone from 23.5 down to 22.7.   We are not comfortable entering into multi-day bull position until VIX rises to 16-17 and SVIX drops more.

Meanwhile, if you are interested in quick bull trades, you can check out the setup and buy order for SOXL that we've spelled out in the spreadsheet.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.​

​Our personal trade plan
While the multi-week bull signal remains intact, the best strategy is to buy the dip.  Wait for the bottom of the dip when the new multi-day bull signal emerges to enter new bull positions.   

We currently have buy orders to scale into 2 SVIX positions when it gets down closer to its 20-day EMA blue line.  Note that we're scaling in a pretty wide zone from 23.5 down to 22.7.   

In our experience, detecting the bottom of the dip is not easy.   But after a medium dip, SVIX will try to retest the previous high before it drops lower, if it drops at all.  Therefore we will hold off setting an immediate stop until SVIX 20-hour EMA line turns up from dipping.   

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

​Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.

VIX and dip levels
We want to share SVXY daily chart below to give you an idea of how the multi-day and multi-week signals have been unfolding since Feb 2.  Admittedly, our system was not well equipped enough to catch all of the moves.  Still we caught some, and used this data to fine tune the model.

• The multi-week bull signal that started on Mar 15 is still intact.
• The multi-day bull signal that started on May 24 is done as of Friday Jun 16, based on our signals. 

We may see some choppy movements ahead of VIX OpEx on Wednesday, but overall we expect to see SVXY SVIX dip and then possibly bottom out in the zone around their 20-day EMA blue line (about 23 for SVIX).

As for ES NQ RTY, they are likely to dip and retest S1 before bouncing up higher.   

​Our personal trade plan
We currently have buy orders to scale into 2 SVIX positions when it gets down closer to its 20-day EMA blue line.  Note that we're scaling in a pretty wide zone from 23.5 down to 22.7.   

In our experience, detecting the bottom of the dip is not easy.   But after a medium dip, SVIX will try to retest the previous high before it drops lower, if it drops at all.  Therefore we will hold off setting an immediate stop until SVIX 20-hour EMA line turns up from dipping.   

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Time frames
A member asked what time frames do we typically use to make our decisions.   The answer is it depends on the time frame of our trades.  In other words, if we intend to hold the position for multiple weeks, we use the bigger time frame.  Conversely, we focus on lower time frames for multi-day positions.   Here is our rule of thumb.

• Multi-week positions:  focus on 4-hour, daily and weekly charts.
• Multi-day positions: focus on 30-min, 1-hour, 2-hour charts.
• Intraday positions:  focus on 1-min, 5-min and 30-min charts.

​
We have found that we have to analyze at least 3 time frames to get a feel for key S/R levels that are suitable for a given trade.

Vacation
We need to take a much needed vacation, mainly to catch up on household projects.  So for Wed, Thu and Fri updates this week, we will be posting a shorter blog, mainly to share with you the indicator readings. We will post alerts when we detect the end of the dip, so that you can scale into bull positions.
​
​Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 12:47 PM ET - Friday 6/16/23

Ahead of the weekend
Please note that Monday is a holiday (Juneteenth) and US stock exchanges will be closed.   

The current bullishness is starting to fade under the hood.

• Market breadth (via Advance Decline lines) is starting to decline.
• VIX is still forming the second half of its W bottom.   If it succeeds, VIX will climb up some amount from this W bottom.
• Market super bulls such as SOXL LABU are forming short-term tops.   

With this kind of condition, it is best NOT to initiate new bull positions until we get a bigger dip.  It is best also not to trade multi-day bear positions because they are still likely to get crushed. 

​So enjoy the long weekend.  The buying opportunity will come next week.

Updates 1:15 AM ET - Friday 6/16/23

​Multi-week Signal Indicators:  Bullish

• There is no major crash or bear market on the horizon right now.
• Bulls are in charge, so the best strategy is to buy the dip.

Key S/R levels
The table below has been updated.​

The multi-day indicators above are fading from the "extremely bullish" stage.  Bearish warnings are popping up, but ES NQ RTY are still not paying close attention yet.  However, now is not the time to initiate new bull positions, especially big ones. 

Yesterday, we thought that VIX could drop all the way to 13 before bouncing.  Today, VIX is forming a clearer W bottom on its hourly chart, indicating that it's likely to rise from current level of 14.49.   VIX may reach all the way up to 16-17 zone before forming short-term top.   When VIX forms this short-term top is when the dip is over for SVIX SVXY.   

We can't say if ES NQ RTY are going to dip along with SVIX SVXY, or whether they will just ignore VIX.

​Our Personal Trade Plan
Yesterday we put in buy orders to scale into 2 SVIX positions when it gets into the next medium dip.  Note that we're scaling in a pretty wide zone from 23.5 down to 22.7.   

In our experience, detecting the bottom of the dip is not easy.   But after a medium dip, SVIX will try to retest the previous high before it drops lower, if it drops at all.  Therefore we will hold off setting an immediate stop until SVIX 20-hour EMA line turns up from dipping.   

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
​
​Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.