|
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 11:45 AM ET - Monday From WSJ: "JOLTS job openings data for July on Wednesday and ADP private payrolls figures for August on Thursday, as well as Thursday’s weekly jobless claims figures, could give advance clues on the health of the jobs market. ISM purchasing managers’ data for August on the manufacturing sector on Tuesday and the services sector on Thursday will also be watched closely after particularly weak figures the previous month as investors assess the severity of the U.S. economic slowdown. Markets will particularly be watching for a recovery in the manufacturing sector after the index slipped unexpectedly to 46.8 last month, igniting the recession fears.”  Volatility is supportive of equity On 8/22 and 8/28, VIX VX VVIX UVXY made serious attempts to rise, but failed to rise above the 200-hour EMA green line. This failure to rise is a bullish setup for stocks. In VIX hourly chart below, we can see its 200 EMA green line steadily trending down. The 20-hour and 50-hour EMA lines are heading down too. This is very supportive for equity.  SOXL On Friday, we were worried about SOXL 200-hour EMA line dropping down while SOXS 200-hour EMA line rising up. But Friday turned out to be a bull pivot day. And now SOXL hourly chart below shows a bullish confluence of 20-hour EMA blue line, 50-hour EMA red line and price candles merging in one spot. They have tagged SOXL 200-hour EMA green line and successfully stayed in a tight range, ready to cross over the green line. Once they successfully cross over this key resistance, they will be march upward even more.
We're planning to add to more tranches for our SOXL holding. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.  NQ Similar to SOXL, Friday turned out to be a bull pivot day for NQ. And now NQ hourly chart below shows a bullish confluence of rising 20-hour EMA blue line, 50-hour EMA red line and price candles. They have tagged NQ 200-hour EMA green line and successfully stayed in a tight range, ready to cross over the green line. Once they successfully cross over this key resistance, they will resume their march upward.
 TNA TNA is actually looking quite bullish and is continuing to climb up the blue channel in its hourly chart below.
 Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.
0 Comments
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 2:48 PM ET - Friday Volatility is supportive of equity A review of the hourly charts currently show:
Why the focus on the charts of the inverse bear ETF? Because they are weighed down by contago. So if their 200 EMA green lines steadily rise up, something really bearish is brewing. Otherwise as long as the inverse bear ETFs trend down, the bull ETFs are in charge. We are holding SOXL and not adding any new tranches based on this reading. Please note that Monday is Labor Day and stock market will be closed. Updates will be for Tuesday 8/3. Updates 2:50 AM ET - Friday Upcoming key events Here are a few more articles regarding NVDA.  VX UVXY VIX VVIX are sending mixed messages VX hourly chart below shows its 200 EMA green line continuing to trend down. Its 20 EMA blue line has made 2 attempts on 8/22 and 8/28 to rise above the green line. It has failed both times and is trending down. Under normal circumstances, this would be a bullish setup with volatility providing supportive tailwind for equity. However, during this same period, VX has not gone below 15.4. VIX has not gone below 15.2. They both keep coiling and pushing up at the 200 EMA green lines. At some point, this volatility coiling will break. This most likely will happen after PCE report.
 SOXL / SOXS Tonight we want to discuss this pair first because their directions will eventually be the direction for NQ. SOXS is the bear ETF. Its movements are inverse of SOXL. Most of the time, SOXS is pushed down by contango similar to how UVXY suffers from contango during bullish or sideway market. It takes strong bearish momentum to enable SOXS to rise. Observe SOXS 15-minute chart below.
For this reason, we are looking at using SOXS to hedge against our SOXL position. We could be wrong, so we will start first with just 1/2 position. When VX rises above 16.3, we will add the remaining half. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Note that SOXL may retest the zone 37.95 - 39 once more before really dropping. It should find support at S1 at 29. S2 sits at 25.4.  NQ
TNA
Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 2:40 AM ET - Thursday Upcoming key events Here are a few articles regarding NVDA earnings and impact.  VIX and VIX futures may soon surge again Wednesday has been a beast of a day. Absolutely exhausting mentally. Unfortunately VIX and VX charts are now telling us to brace for a possible 2nd big surge in volatility. Not quite as high as August 5, but the numbers may be uncomfortable for bulls if it happens. Monitor for:
 The possibility of NQ SOXL NVDL TNA dropping to retest 8/5 lows has increased a lot more after Wednesday disappointing NVDA results. Here are some levels to monitor for. NQ
SOXL
NVDL
TNA
Our trade plan is to close out the current half position of NVDL as close to breakeven as possible. Then hedge SOXL with SOXS. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.  Message from volatility: bullish divergence VIX futures (VX) 200-hour EMA green line has been trending down since 8/9. This shows the bulls are fully in charge. Since last Thursday 8/22, VX has made 4 separate attempts to rise above its 200 EMA green line. It failed every time. VX failure to rise creates a very supportive environment for equity. However, NQ SOXL NVDL TNA don't always move correspondingly to VX moves, tick by tick. So they may still have one more sharp dip like on Tuesday before they are ready to respond to this bullish condition provided by volatility. This gives us an opportunity to buy the dip.  NQ
 SOXL
 NVDL
 TNA
 Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.  Message from volatility: bullish divergence Yesterday we shared with you VIX futures (VX) hourly chart. Here it is again with all the signals indicating that volatility is supportive of equity right now. Note the latest annotation. Yesterday 8/26, VX 20-hour EMA blue line tried to rise over its 200-hour EMA green line. It didn't succeed. Meanwhile equity dropped. This is a bullish divergence. Conditions are still favoring equity. However, NQ SOXL NVDL TNA don't always move correspondingly to VX moves, tick by tick. So they may still drop a bit more before they are ready to respond to this bullish condition provided by volatility. This gives us an opportunity to buy the dip.  NOTE: We adjust the S/R levels based on the latest chart patterns and the momentum of the current moves. This essentially changes the slopes of the channels, resulting in different S/R levels. NQ
 SOXL
 NVDL
 TNA
 Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 1:25 AM ET - Monday Upcoming key events NVDA earnings and PCE report are the key market movers this week. Here are a few articles to prepare you.  Volatility is steadily dropping VIX futures (VX) 1-hour chart below shows the signals that indicate the bulls have been in control since 8/8. And the bulls continue to be in control as of Friday 8/23. The bearish setup to look for is this. In the current scenario:
None of these setups are seen right now. Bulls are still in control.  NQ
 SOXL
 NVDL
 TNA
 Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 2:15 AM ET - Friday Upcoming key events BOJ Ueda has actually already spoken as of this writing. According to Reuters, he signaled readiness to raise rates if growth and inflation stay on track. Read more here for the impact of this on the carry trade and global stock markets.  VX has not formed a top yet Despite Ueda's comments, overnight US traders are not panicking. This is reflected in NQ ES RTY charts. The Nikkei is still rising, and chart of USDJPY shows it is still continuing to form its W bottom. So perhaps market has already gotten words of Ueda's message ahead of his actual speech. Thursday's selloff was the dip that we anticipated, though we were projecting for it to happen after Friday open. VX 10-minute chart shows its 200 EMA green line still rising. So technically, volatility is not done rising yet. It may be after Powell's speech at 10 AM today. But for now, it's still creeping up.  NQ
 SOXL
 TNA
 Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.  VX
NQ
 SOXL
 TNA
 Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 2:45 AM ET - Wednesday Upcoming key events We just added an important event to the schedule. Bank of Japan Govenor Ueda is scheduled to speak to Japanese Parliament this Friday. Read more here. Keep in mind that his testimony is likely to have an impact during overnight market hours, ahead of Friday's open.  Volatility may rise on central bank uncertainty this week VIX VVIX VX UVXY all rose some amount on Tuesday. VIX went from 14.5 low on Monday to 15.9 high on Tuesday. With FOMC minutes on Wednesday, Jackson Hole symposium starting Thursday and Ueda speaking on Friday, we may see a moderate spike in volatility. We most likely will continue to see market dips a bit but grinds up slowly on the expectation of rate cuts. However, if Ueda projects a hawkish tone on Friday, it may end up causing a big dip, where price ends up closer to S3 level by early next week. NQ
 SOXL
 TNA
 Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.  Volatility is steadily dropping We were wrong about volatility possibly rising. On their 30-minute charts, VIX VVIX VX UVXY EMA lines are all dropping sharply. They could not gain traction to rise, not yet anyway. So volatility pattern is very supportive of the bulls right now. NQ
 SOXL
 NVDL We started a new position in NVDL so we are sharing its chart and S/R levels here.
Two of our SOXL tranches got stopped out at breakeven. So we deployed this capital into a full NVDL position to capture the rise in its green channel. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.  TNA
 Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. |
Archives
December 2024
Categories |
RSS Feed
|
|
Copyright (c) 2019-2024 LOOK Systems LLC
All rights reserved. |