Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 12:15 AM ET - Monday
This week is the last major trading week before Christmas holiday, and it is packed with market moving events.  Besides VIXEx and OpEx, we have FOMC on Wednesday and PCE on Friday.

According to WSJ:  "It is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as inflation has been sufficiently contained recently to justify a further reduction...There will be heightened focus on the outlook for future interest-rate cuts, especially given that many of the policies of President-elect Donald Trump are expected to be inflationary...U.S. money markets price in a 94% chance of a rate cut in December, according to LSEG data. However, for the whole of 2025, they price in just two more rate reductions."

​Volatility:  maybe a small spike
​VIX futures (VX) 4-hour chart below confirms its intention to rise.  Note how its 20 EMA blue line is about to cross above its 50 EMA red line. Both its MACD cyan line and orange signal line are rising, confirming the upcoming rise in volatility.  VX may reach up to 17.3 before this spike is done.   But in the context of the big picture, this is just a very moderate spike.

​NQ
NQ daily chart below shows that it's still on an upward trajectory, and is likely to reach 22000 soon. 

​However, NQ 1-hour chart suggests that a quick dip is still possible, not guaranteed but possible.  The reason for this dip projection is because NQ 1-hour MACD cyan line is forming a lower high, diverging bearishly from NQ higher high top.  Bulls should keep this in mind especially when factoring in VX dip setup from above.

NQ has strong support in the zone 21340 - 21450 at this point, so it's unlikely to dip below this.

TQQQ:  Likely to follow NQ path up to R1 and higher, but the possibility of a quick dip to support zone S1 below.

• S1:   84 - 85
• R1:  92

SOXL:  Likely to follow NQ path up to R1 and higher, but the possibility of a quick dip to support zone S1 below.

• S1:  28 - 29
• R1:  33​

TNA:  is very close to S1 support zone and is likely to start basing and rising.   TNA may reach R1 by year end

• S1:  48 - 49
• R1:  55

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.

​Volatility is still basing to rise
According to WSJ, investors should not count on many rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, though the expectation for 25 bps cut next week is still intact.   Read more here.

Meanwhile volatility is still basing to rise.  VVIX (volatility of VIX) 4-hour chart below shows it has been rising steadily since giving us its bearish signal and warning on Dec 9 (red dotted line).

​VIX futures (VX) 4-hour chart below confirms its intention to rise.  Note how its 20 EMA blue line is about to cross above its 50 EMA red line. Both its MACD cyan line and orange signal line are rising, confirming the upcoming rise in volatility.  VX may reach up to 17.7 before this spike is done.

​TQQQ
TQQQ initial support zone is  81.5 - 82.8.  If TQQQ finds enough buyers here, a new bull swing can start at this zone, and TQQQ may rise as high as 92 by year end.

SOXL 
Ahead of Thursday we wrote that SOXL strong support zone was 26 - 26.6.   But on Thursday, SOXL did not dip that far.  It got down to 28.74 before a sharp bullish reversal.  Semi has been a beaten down sector for the last 6 months.  It has missed out on all the bullish moves in NQ and ES.  So now may be semi's turn to lead the bulls eventually out of the dip.  

SOXL may still operate in a big choppy zone for a bit, but the zone 27 - 27.75 provides strong support.  SOXL may rise as high as R2 at 35 by year end.

TNA
Ahead of Thursday we wrote that a new bull swing can start in the support zone of 49.9 - 50.9.  TNA dipped into this zone on Thursday, without any hint yet that it is bottoming.  So the support zone may be more like 49 - 50.   If TNA finds enough buyers here, it may rise as high as 59 by year end.

Our personal trade plan
Our personal schedule prevents us from trading on Friday, but see spreadsheet for a new suggested trade.  
​
Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.

Volatility is still basing to rise
Despite the highly bullish price actions after CPI report on Wednesday, volatility is still forming that dreaded basing-to-rise pattern.  VVIX daily chart below shows it has been rising steadily since giving us the warning on Dec 9.

UVXY
UVXY which usually is fashionably late to the party is currently showing multiple W bottoms on its hourly chart.  When UVXY goes into this basing mode, it usually heralds in a spike in volatility.  UVXY may spike as high as 20.75 - 21.

NQ
Ahead of CPI report, we wrote: Don't be surprised though if NQ retests the resistance zone 21600 - 21607 quickly before resuming the dip.

NQ not only spiked up to this zone post CPI, but it kept on going to finally tag 21820 before pulling back a bit.  So does this mean the dip is done?  Not according to volatility above, and not according to NQ MACD patterns on its 1-hour and 4-hour chart.  In fact, hourly MACD is sending out a bearish warning message as we write this.

However, when the bulls go into a frenzy, they will not pay much attention to these bearish divergence messages.  NQ can keep rising higher while volatility climbs and MACD patterns drop.  

The best strategy at this point is to tightly protect bull positions and be careful about initiating new multi-day bull positions.  We think that when UVXY spikes, NQ may drop to support in the zone 21165 - 21250.

CPI report is at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday.   According to Nick Timiraos of WSJ: expect the November CPI to show that core prices rose about the same as in October, up 0.27% to hold the 12-month rate at 3.3% The median forecast has headline CPI rising to 2.7% from 2.6%.

Volatility is still likely to continue rising
On Monday, VVIX gave us the warning that it was getting ready to rise.  Since then VVIX VIX and then VX all started to rise.  

VX (VIX futures) 4-hour chart below shows its MACD is forming rising bottom while VX itself is forming W bottom.  This basing-to-rise pattern usually precedes a volatility spike. 

Don't be surprised though if VX retests support at 14.2 quickly before really rising to  eventually tag the resistance zone 15.4 - 15.8.  We don't think VX will rise higher than that. This is our projection, but we do need confirmation from VIX VX VVIX MACD patterns (4-hour charts) to ensure that volatility is done rising.

As we wrote last night, the stage had been set for the dip to start, and on Monday NVDA investigation provided the catalyst to launch it.  Read more about that here.

Volatility is still likely to rise
VVIX (volatility of VIX) gapped on Monday as anticipated.  VIX also rose from 12.7 to 14.23.   With CPI this week and FOMC VIXEx OpEx next week, traders may feel the need to  hedge more.  VIX may spike up to tag the zone 16 - 17 before this dip is over.

​TQQQ
Like NQ, dip has started for TQQQ.  Its initial support zone is  81.5 - 82.8.  If TQQQ finds enough buyers here, a new bull swing can start at this zone, and TQQQ will retest R1 at 88 again.  It may rise as high as R2 at 91 by year end.

SOXL 
Dip has been progressing for SOXL since Dec 4.  A new bull swing can start in the support zone of 26.8 - 27.4.   If SOXL finds enough buyers here, it will definitely retest R1 at 31.6 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 35 by year end.

TNA
​Dip has been progressing for TNA since Nov 27. A new bull swing can start in the support zone of 48 - 49.7.   If TNA finds enough buyers here, it can retest R1 at 58 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 63 by year end.

Our personal trade plan
We have placed buy orders to scale into SQQQ to capture the dip. Note that the buy orders will only get filled if NQ TQQQ retest their Monday resistance zones again.  If they don't retest and simply drop, we will not chase TQQQ down.  The very sharp drop can end suddenly, whereas a slow grind tends to last longer and yields better return.

Click here for Signal Spreadsheet.
​
Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.

​Volatility is still likely to rise
Even though VX and VIX still look like they are dropping, VVIX (volatility of VIX) 4-hour chart below shows it has been basing since late November. Its MACD cyan line has formed a rising W bottom pattern.  It's a warning that VVIX is ready to rise.

However, in this environment VVIX rising does not mean that VIX and VX will follow  immediately.  And equity may completely ignore this message for the short term.  But with CPI this week and FOMC VIXEx OpEx next week, traders may feel the need to  hedge.  This opens the door for VIX and VX to spike.

For right now though we don't recommend jumping into UVXY yet.

​NQ
On NQ 1-hour chart, MACD cyan line has crossed below its signal orange line, and is forming lower high while price is forming higher high. This bearish divergence is a warning to aggressively protect your bull positions, but it is not a signal to enter into bear positions yet.

When the dip does start, NQ initial support zone is  21165 - 21250.  If NQ finds enough buyers here, a new bull swing can start at this zone, and NQ will retest R1 at 21700 again.  It may rise as high as R2 at 22000 by year end.

TNA
​Dip has been progressing for TNA since Nov 27.  And despite the duration so far, TNA has actually not dropped that much.  When volatility starts to rise again, TNA may drop even more.  

Eventually a new bull swing can start in the support zone of 48 - 49.7.   If TNA finds enough buyers here, it can retest R1 at 58 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 63 by year end.

​
​Our personal trade plan
There is no good setup right now so no trade plan at the moment.  Click here for trade records.
​
Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 1:01 PM ET - Friday
Volatility is still likely to spike and NQ likely to dip
Here's a quick summary of the jobs report from WSJ:  "Hiring bounced back with 227,000 jobs added last month....The general picture is that the labor market has slowed, but is still doing well."
The positive jobs report brought a quick spike in equity.  But the charts are still showing that a dip is likely to come.

VVIX chart is actually the clearest in message.  On VVIX 4-hour chart, it has been basing since November 26.  Its MACD line is rising steadily.  This is a warning that volatility is likely to rise soon.  We are projecting that VIX may spike up to 15 and VX to 15.8.  Still we don't recommend jumping into UVXY because the underlying bull is still strong.

NQ 4-hour chart shows a sharp spike up this morning.  Price is at a new high near 21645.  But its MACD is forming lower high while price is forming higher high.  This is a bearish divergence and is a warning to aggressively protect our bull positions.  However, as we said above the underlying bull is still strong.  We don't recommend jumping into SQQQ.

SOXL is likely to follow in NQ footsteps which means its current dip will continue further.
The same is true with TNA.

Updates 7:10 PM ET - Thursday

NQ
Ahead of Thursday, we wrote:  MACD pattern on NQ hourly chart confirms that it is likely to be forming a short-term top, echoing the same mood suggested by VX chart.

Dip is starting as anticipated.  Initial support zone is  21165 - 21250.  If NQ finds enough buyers here, a new bull swing can start at this zone.  If NQ ffinds enough buyers here, it will definitely retest R1 at 21567 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 22000 by year end.

​TQQQ
Dip is starting for TQQQ.  A new bull swing can start in the support zone of 82 - 82.8.  If TQQQ finds enough buyers here, it will definitely retest R1 at 86.6 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 91.8 by year end.

SOXL 
Dip is progressing for SOXL.  A new bull swing can start in the support zone of 26.8 - 27.4.   If SOXL finds enough buyers here, it will definitely retest R1 at 31.6 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 35 by year end.

TNA
​Dip is progressing for TNA.  A new bull swing can start in the support zone of 48 - 49.7.  If TNA finds enough buyers here, it will definitely retest R1 at 58 again, and may rise as high as R2 at 61 by year end.

​Our personal trade plan
We don't have any entry or exit plan right now as we have a very busy personal schedule.  But we will be monitoring to re-enter TQQQ when it dips back into its key support zone.   Click here for recent trade results.
​
Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.

Volatility may spike a moderate amount
​​The 4-hour charts of VIX VVIX VX UVXY are all showing the same rising MACD pattern as shown below.  This pattern suggests that volatility is likely to base and then rise a moderate amount.  We think that VX can spike up to 15.8 before dropping again. 

This means that the short term equity bull swing that started mid-November may experience a moderate dip. It is time to aggressively protect your bull positions, but it is NOT time to enter UVXY just yet.

NQ
MACD pattern on NQ hourly chart confirms that it is likely to be forming a short-term top, echoing the same mood suggested by VX chart above.  First level of support for VX is the zone 21208 - 21250.  However, we would need MACD pattern to confirm that a bottom is formed when NQ dips into this zone.

For TQQQ, the first level of support for VX is the zone 82.2 - 82.8.

SOXL
The upcoming dip can drop SOXL into the support zone of 28.5 - 29 before it can resume the bullish climb.  

TNA
TNA chart is not as clear.  It is very likely to retest the support zone of 53.3 - 54.  We don't have enough signal data from its charts to declare whether it will find enough buyers here to climb back up again, or whether it will need to dip lower.

​Our personal trade plan
Conditions are no longer favorable for entry into bull positions, but there is no low-risk setup to enter into bear positions either.  We don't have any entry or exit plan right now.  Click here for our trade results this week.
​
Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.

Volatility may rise a bit
​VX 4-hour chart below shows its MACD cyan line starting to cross above its signal orange line while VX is still dropping.  This is a typical pattern prior to VX basing and spiking.  We would not be surprised if VX bases around 14.5 and then spikes up to 15.8 for a quick trip.

NQ
While VX bases, NQ may do a quick dip and then one more surge.  Look for these levels.

• Support zone:   21208 - 21250
• Resistance:  21500

TQQQ

• Support zone:   82.2 - 82.8 
• Resistance:  85.5

​
​SOXL

• Support zone:   28.5 - 29 
• Resistance:  32

TNA

• Support zone:   53.3 - 54 
• Resistance:  58

Our personal trade plan
We may have exited TQQQ too soon, but our personal schedule prevents us from monitoring trades closely this week.  Click here for trade results this week.
​
Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.

Volatility is still heading down
VX VIX VVIX UVXY 4-hour chart show all EMA lines are still steadily dropping.   this is supportive of equity.

NQ  TQQQ
Ahead of Monday we wrote:  By Friday Nov 29, NQ 4-hour chart below showed its MACD cyan line crossing back above its orange signal line.  This gives us permission to look for an opportunity to re-enter bull NQ position.  

NQ turned quite bullish on Monday as anticipated.  However, don't be surprised if NQ and TQQQ dip back to their support zones on Tuesday.  If they find enough support there, they may reach their resistance zones ahead of Friday's NFP.
​

• NQ support zone:  20900 - 21000
• NQ resistance zone:  21300 - 21430


• TQQQ support zone:  78.5 - 80
• TQQQ resistance zone:  84 - 86​

SOXL
Ahead of Monday we wrote:  on Wednesday Nov 27,  SOXL MACD cyan line crossed back above its orange signal line. This tells us SOXL is likely to follow NQ bullish path.
​
SOXL turned quite bullish on Monday as anticipated.  SOXL 1-hour chart below shows a triple bottom that has been in place since November 18.   This continues to confirm the bullish reversal is still intact, though minor pullbacks are still likely.

• SOXL support zone:  28.25 - 29
• SOXL resistance zone:  32 - 34

​Our personal trade plan
We re-entered TZA per alert on Friday at 9.96.   Our goal is to hold until it reaches 11.

Since TQQQ did not dip pre-market on Monday, we had to just jump in at the opening price.  Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
​
Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.