Updates for Friday December 13, 2024

Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.

Updates 2:00 AM ET - Friday

​Volatility is still basing to rise
According to WSJ, investors should not count on many rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, though the expectation for 25 bps cut next week is still intact.   Read more here.

Meanwhile volatility is still basing to rise.  VVIX (volatility of VIX) 4-hour chart below shows it has been rising steadily since giving us its bearish signal and warning on Dec 9 (red dotted line).

​VIX futures (VX) 4-hour chart below confirms its intention to rise.  Note how its 20 EMA blue line is about to cross above its 50 EMA red line. Both its MACD cyan line and orange signal line are rising, confirming the upcoming rise in volatility.  VX may reach up to 17.7 before this spike is done.

NQ
NQ bulls celebrated after CPI on Wednesday, pushing NQ all the way to 21820.  We explained ahead of Thursday that NQ chart was still sending out underlying bearish messages. So it was no surprise that the party fizzled out on Thursday. 

Both NQ price actions on its hourly chart along with its MACD pattern are showing the bearish signal (red dotted line).  We think that when VX spikes, NQ may drop to support in the zone 21165 - 21250.

​TQQQ
TQQQ initial support zone is  81.5 - 82.8.  If TQQQ finds enough buyers here, a new bull swing can start at this zone, and TQQQ may rise as high as 92 by year end.

SOXL 
Ahead of Thursday we wrote that SOXL strong support zone was 26 - 26.6.   But on Thursday, SOXL did not dip that far.  It got down to 28.74 before a sharp bullish reversal.  Semi has been a beaten down sector for the last 6 months.  It has missed out on all the bullish moves in NQ and ES.  So now may be semi's turn to lead the bulls eventually out of the dip.  

SOXL may still operate in a big choppy zone for a bit, but the zone 27 - 27.75 provides strong support.  SOXL may rise as high as R2 at 35 by year end.

TNA
Ahead of Thursday we wrote that a new bull swing can start in the support zone of 49.9 - 50.9.  TNA dipped into this zone on Thursday, without any hint yet that it is bottoming.  So the support zone may be more like 49 - 50.   If TNA finds enough buyers here, it may rise as high as 59 by year end.

Our personal trade plan
Our personal schedule prevents us from trading on Friday, but see spreadsheet for a new suggested trade.  
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Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.