Earnings, FOMO and Bonds

Earnings season starts this week.  If earnings can stay robust, the market is likely to push a lot higher, possibly all the way back to Sep 2018 high.   The question is how much of this robust earnings expectations are already factored into current stock prices. 

According to some analysts, if this high expectation is not met, market may turn into a drama queen.

On the other hand, according to Wall Street Journal this weekend, Fear of Missing Out is likely to push the market a lot higher. 

Actually if you want to get a head start on what stocks may be doing next, pay attention to the bond market.   Bond movements have a way of preceding stock movements.  And according to WSJ, bond investors may be getting a bit suspicious of the Fed. 

On Thursday 3/28 we wrote: “Our trading system is telling us that by end of Friday stocks are likely to end up higher than Thursday’s closing.”
 
And indeed, that is what happened.  All major stock indices $SPX $COMPQ $RUT turned upward at end of day on Friday.  That is always a bullish sign, as traders are unlikely to buy late on Fridays if they are feeling nervous about the market.
 
Furthermore, the late-day buying happened on both Thursday 3/28 and Friday 3/29.  This indicates that the buying may continue tomorrow Mon 4/1. 
 
We alerted you by email on Thursday and Friday about the bullish change of mood.

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