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(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. G20 induced Surge5 The G20 summit is done, and we now have the short-term catalyst to push $SPX $NDX $RUT into Surge5. In addition to the revised trade talks, we have fresh money being put to work in mutual funds since it’s the start of the month, as well as the start of a quarter. This is also a light week in terms of news, and a short week because Thursday is a holiday. Lots of traders may take a long weekend starting Thursday, so trading volume will be quite light at the end of the week. Taken altogether, there is a very good chance that Monday will be the start of Surge5, and Surge5 can rise quite high for $SPX $NDX $RUT. See below for potential support and resistance levels. The rest of this article covers: Volatility (more) Market breadth Trader sentiments $SPX $NDX $RUT support & resistance zones during Surge5 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free.
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Between the summer doldrums and waiting for G20 this Saturday, market appears to have gone into a suspended state. With the exception of $RUT, $SPX and $NDX hardly moved.
Market internals Market internals are not any clearer than price actions. Volatility: $VIX $VXN actions are muted. They are not threatening to surge which would indicate that Dip4 is accelerating. But $VIX $VXN don’t appear to be marching down steadily either. That scenario would have been more bullish for stocks. The current message from volatility is wait and see. Market breadth: NYSE and Nasdaq cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line continued to turn up today. Their message is bullish for stocks. The percentage of bullish NYSE stocks (stocks that are above their 200-day MA) turned back up to 61.69% today, and Nasdaq percentage did a sharp reversal to rise back up to 74%. The message from these percentages is certain bullish for stocks, indicating that Dip4 could possibly be done. Keep in mind that these percentages are not leading indicators. They serve to confirm messages from other indicators and from price actions. Sentiments: The equity put/call ratio yesterday spanned between a low of 0.54 to a high of 0.7. We would have preferred to see this ratio surge up above 1.1 at least. That would create an oversold condition, a perfect setup for the end of Dip4 and the arrival of Surge5. Without the oversold condition, it may not be enough to stimulate demand for buying. Trading plan The G20 summit, especially the meeting between Trump and Xi on Saturday, is going to be the short-term catalyst to either turn small Dip4 into medium SellOff2, or let $SPX $NDX $RUT immediately jump into Surge5. Noone can really predict, but it is reasonable to expect some kind of drama this weekend. Our recommendation is not to start any new positions. Just wait. By Sunday we will have a much better idea, and by Sunday afternoon 4PM EST, futures will show how market participants feel about everything. So take a long weekend and enjoy the summer. We’ll post an in-depth weekend analysis on Sunday 6/30. If you find the information in this blog post helpful, consider registering to be a member of our site. You will be able to access all content going forward. And it's all free right now. Disclaimer This information is intended to supplement your own research and trading systems. This is our trading plan designed to suit our own investment needs only. We are not making any investment recommendation to you or anyone else. If you choose to follow our trades, you may make money, or you may lose money. Note that we trade highly risky 3x leveraged ETFs. They suit our portfolio, but they may not be appropriate for you. Please read more about them before trading them. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Dip4 is marching down - not done yet, but getting close Today was a tough day to trade, but there are some important messages being broadcasted by market internals. Collectively, they are saying that Dip4 is approaching the end. We may start seeing increasing bullishness in market internals, while $SPX $NDX $RUT prices continue to drop into their support zones. This will create a bullish divergence, signifying the end of Dip4 and the arrival of Surge 5. The rest of this article covers: Volatility Market breadth Trader sentiments $SPX $NDX $RUT support zones during Dip4 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article. (It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Dip4 is marching down - not done yet We used to be software developers in our previous life. In that industry, whenever someone asks a developer for an estimate on how long it might take to code up a program, us developers used to deliver WAG, or Wild Ass Guess. The truth is, whenever we or any market guru project where stocks might be heading, the pronouncements are just WAGs. The question to ask is what they base their WAGs on. For us, our WAGs have to be confirmed by market internals. Today we saw some serious selling started as Dip4 proceeded for real. So let’s see what the market internals have to say. Market internals Volatility: After a quick surge out of the gate this morning, $VIX $VXN rose up sharply. Their sharp rise correspond to the sharp drops in $SPX $NDX $RUT prices. This confirms that Dip4 is proceeding as expected. There is a high probability that $VIX $VXN will pull back some amount tomorrow Wednesday. But they are likely to resume their upward surge until they reach the following resistance zones. The rest of this article covers:
Volatility (more) Market breadth Trader sentiments $SPX $NDX $RUT support & resistance zones during Dip4 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Dip4 has started As of today Monday, Surge4 of the Up Trend that started on 12/26/18 has effectively ended, and Dip4 has started. (A Dip is a small corrective counter-trend move in an Up Trend.) Market internals Volatility: $VIX $VXN continue to confound most traders with seemingly erratic behaviors as Dip4 starts. This is actually expected behavior, and we warned you about it starting last Thursday 6/20. Unfortunately combining this with contango running at 3.5% right now, traders of UVXY and TVIX are seeing mostly loss instead of gain. However, in the next few days, we will see $VIX $VXN spike up for real. The rest of this article covers: Volatility (more) Market breadth Trader sentiments $SPX $NDX $RUT support & resistance zones during Dip4 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Surge4 is ending; Dip4 is starting On Thursday evening 6/20 we wrote about the sharp intraday drops and rises in $VIX $VXN: “This sharp drop is actually the first in a series of complex moves by $VIX $VXN to build an under-the-hood setup to rise back up. The move has started on the intraday charts for $VIX $VXN. We are likely going to see some unpredictable intraday swings by $VIX $VXN over the next few sessions. But basically, we are going to see them bounce around in these zones: $VIX: 13.91 - 16.03 $VXN: 18.21 - 20.42 While $VIX $VXN do their funky dance moves up and down in these zones, $SPX $NDX $RUT are likely to keep rising. And then at some point next week, $VIX $VXN will be ready to spike as Surge4 ends and Dip4 starts for $SPX $NDX $RUT.” That is pretty much what happened on Friday 6/21. And at this point Surge4 is ending for $SPX $NDX $RUT. We should see Dip4 start Monday or Tuesday. So let’s take a look at market internals. Market internals Volatility: The most important message from $VIX $VXN is this. The Up Trend that started on 12/26/18 for $SPX $NDX $RUT is still intact for now, but Surge4 of this Up Trend is ending, and Dip4 is starting. On Monday or Tuesday, $VIX $VXN are likely to do one or two intraday swings, and then start to rise steadily up as Dip4 progresses. $VIX $VXN are likely to run into resistance in these zones: The rest of this article covers: Volatility (more) Market breadth Trader sentiments $SPX $NDX $RUT support & resistance zones during Dip4 Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Market internals Volatility: Yesterday we wrote: “The message from $VIX $VXN is bullish. In fact, $VIX $VXN both had a very sharp big drop at end of day today. This was very disheartening for traders who are long volatility. This sharp drop though is not an indication that Surge4 is going to just keep rising by a huge amount. This sharp drop is actually the first in a series of complex moves by $VIX $VXN to build an under-the-hood setup to rise back up.” The move has started on the intraday charts for $VIX $VXN. We are likely going to see some unpredictable intraday swings by $VIX $VXN over the next few sessions. But basically, we are going to see them bounce around in these zones: $VIX: 13.91 - 16.03 $VXN: 18.21 - 20.42 While $VIX $VXN do their funky dance moves up and down in these zones, $SPX $NDX $RUT are likely to keep rising. And then at some point next week, $VIX $VXN will be ready to spike as Surge4 ends and Dip4 starts for $SPX $NDX $RUT. The rest of this article covers: Market breadth Trader sentiments Surge4: resistance levels Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. Surge4 of the Up Trend continues FOMC announcement was something of a non-event today: “The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its key interest rate unchanged and signaled it’s unlikely to cut borrowing costs in 2019, but the central bank also left itself wiggle room by saying it would “closely monitor” the economy in light of waning inflation and growing “uncertainties.” Market responded by staying firmly in Surge4. $SPX $NDX $RUT are likely to rise up further from here based on their market internals. The rest of this article covers: Market internals Surge4: support and resistance levels Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. We didn't have time to elaborate much last night due to a family emergency, so we want to clarify a few things. It's important to discuss this before the crazy price actions post FOMC today. Position Management: UpTrendPos and QuickPos We've been trying to set specific time frames for our trading positions, and follow different position management rules for them. We have divided our capital into 2 positions.
UpTrendPos is designed to capture most of the Up Trend. QuickPos is designed to capture the occasional big intraday or short-term swings. The rest of this article covers how we plan to trade UpTrendPos and QuickPos today. Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. Members click here for full article.
(It is currently free to join our membership.) Here is an excerpt from our trading plan. In Surge4 of Up Trend As we explained in yesterday’s post, we are in Surge4 of the Up Trend that started on 12/26/18. And it seems that the entire market has gone on pause mode today waiting for the Fed. There is hardly any movement anywhere. It’s kind of eerie. As a result, tonight’s post will not terribly different than last night’s, as the numbers have barely moved. So we’ll just give you a quick summary. The rest of this article covers: Market internals Surge4 and Dip4: support and resistance levels Trading plan Register here to read the rest of the article. All free. |
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