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Updates for Monday 10/25/21

10/24/2021

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We trade 3x ETFs such as TQQQ TNA SOXL LABU UVXY using proprietary analysis of volatility.   See actual trades here.

Updates 12:30 AM EST - Monday 10/25/21

Key dates
This is a big week.  Here's the economic calendar for the full week.   There are lots of key reports that can potentially move the market.

Tuesday:  Consumer Confidence; New Home Sales
Wednesday:  Durable Goods Orders
Thursday:   GDP; Jobless Claims
Friday:  Personal Income & Spending; PCE Prices & Deflator; Employment Cost Index; Consumer Sentiments

There are earnings from major tech companies including AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, FB and AMZN.   These will certainly move $NDX.

Additionally, keep in mind the following upcoming key dates:
11/3:   FOMC announcement
11/19:  Options expiration (OPEX)
12/3:   Debt ceiling deadline

Bullish Catalysts 
  • Positive earnings surprises
  • End of month fund shuffling
  • Traditionally, November is a bullish month.
​
Bearish Catalysts
  • Negative earnings surprises (e.g. SNAP and INTC)
  • Rising yields 
  • Fed tapering and raising interest rates soon >> taper tantrum.
  • Fed not tapering and and raising interest rates soon enough, fueling inflation.
  • Inflation is on everyone's mind (from Powell to Dorsey).
  • Congress potentially fails to deliver on infrastructure deal and debt ceiling deal.
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Updates for Thursday 10/21/21

10/20/2021

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We trade 3x ETFs such as TQQQ TNA SOXL LABU UVXY using proprietary analysis of volatility.   See actual trades here.

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Updates for Wednesday 10/20/21

10/19/2021

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We trade 3x ETFs such as TQQQ TNA SOXL LABU UVXY using proprietary analysis of volatility.   See actual trades here.

​
Updates 12 AM EST - Wednesday 10/20/21

Yield
We should point out that the crucial 10-year yield  (US10Y) has been rising sharply since August.   Observe the 200 EMA green line on its 2-hour chart below.   This line needs to flatten out and starts heading down, or $NDX will not be able to rise too far.   

(Here is a very interesting article explaining the relationship between growth stocks and interest rates.)
Picture
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Updates for Tuesday 10/19/21

10/18/2021

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We trade 3x ETFs such as TQQQ TNA SOXL LABU UVXY using proprietary analysis of volatility.   See actual trades here.

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Updates for Monday 10/18/21

10/17/2021

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We trade 3x ETFs such as TQQQ TNA SOXL LABU UVXY using proprietary analysis of volatility.   See actual trades here.

Updates 11:20 PM EST - Sunday (for Monday 10/18/21)

Key dates
Here's the economic calendar for the full week.   The key reports that can potentially move the market are:

Monday:  Industrial Production
Tuesday:  Housing Starts & Permits
Thursday:   Jobless Claims; Existing Home Sales

Additionally, keep in mind the following upcoming key dates:

10/20:  $VIX Expiration
11/3:   FOMC announcement
12/3:   Debt ceiling deadline

A number of Fed officials are speaking this week, most likely warming the market up for tapering talks.


Bullish Catalysts 
  • Earnings: so far earnings season has yielded a lot of positive surprises, helping stocks to turn bullish last week.
​
Bearish Catalysts
  • Fed tapering and raising interest rates soon >> taper tantrum.
  • Fed not tapering and and raising interest rates soon enough, fueling inflation.
  • Spiraling global inflation due to pent-up demands, rising wage, supply chain problems, sharply rising fuel costs, raw commodity costs, and climate change (flood and drought).
  • Debt ceiling and gigantic US Treasury debts.

Despite an abundance of bearish catalysts, market technicals are improving substantially.   If they continue to maintain the patterns describe below, conditions are actually very supportive for stocks to rise.
...

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Updates for Monday 10/11/21

10/10/2021

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We trade 3x ETFs such as TQQQ TNA SOXL LABU UVXY using proprietary analysis of volatility.   See actual trades here.

Updates 1:45 AM EST - Monday 10/11/21

This coming week
Here's the economic calendar for the full week.   The key reports that can potentially move the market are:

Wednesday:  CPI; FOMC Minutes
Thursday:   PPI; Jobless Claims
Friday:  Retail Sales; Consumer Sentiments; OPEX

Additionally, keep in mind the following upcoming key dates:

10/15:  Options Expiration (OPEX)
10/20:  $VIX Expiration
11/3:   FOMC announcement

$VVIX:  Volatility of $VIX
$VVIX and the equity put/call ratio are the charts to monitor this week for indications of actions around OPEX date (10/15).   
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Updates for Monday 10/4/21

10/3/2021

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We trade 3x ETFs such as TQQQ TNA SOXL LABU UVXY using proprietary analysis of volatility.   See actual trades here.

​Updates 12:45 AM EST - Monday 10/4/21

This coming week
Here's the economic calendar for the full week.   The key reports that can potentially move the market are:

Thursday:   Jobless Claims
Friday:  Job reports

Earnings season is starting up.   Here are companies announcing in October.  October options expiration is 10/15. 

Wall of worry
Market is now getting more nervous about the possibility of stagflation:  inflation combined with stagnant growth.   The current rise in bond yields is actually a key indication of this.   Read more here.

The market is also nervous about the Fed's plan to taper.   As we mentioned before, in early October 20218, stocks started a major sell-off due to the Fed raising rates. This lasted until end of 2018.  During this time $SPX dropped 20%.   

There is a chance the market may continue to be in this nervous mode for a while during this October. 
​
Market Internals
Volatility charts, equity put/call ratio, A/D net issues are all communicating the same message:  bearish.

Volatility
$VXN and $RVX charts are showing similar patterns to $VIX chart below:  bearish.
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