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Click here for our recent Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 1:36 AM EST - Tuesday 11/24/20 Summary Big Picture: $NDX $SPX IWM are still in an up trend from a big picture perspective. $VIX $VXN are back to sending out bullish messages as they resume their downward drop. Short Term: IWM has been shooting up like a rocket, but $SPX and especially $NDX may not be done consolidating yet. Market Internals Market internals are back to sending out all bullish messages. Table of Support & Resistance Zones Subscribe to get full access to table. $VIX $VXN The overall message from $VIX $VXN is quite bullish. No crash. No major fear spike in the short term. On Monday, $VIX $VXN rose up a small amount early, but that quickly fizzled out. And now their charts are sending out the bullish message again. Subscribe to get full access to $VIX $VXN charts. $NDX Monitor the pennant pattern that $NDX has been forming. This is another way to look at the boundary of the 3-peak consolidation pattern we've discussed before. $NDX daily chart below shows some key signals to look for to confirm the potential bullish breakout. Subscribe to get full access to $NDX chart. $SPX Overall, $SPX pattern is quite bullish. Subscribe to get full access to $SPX chart. IWM While we entered into a TNA position in Signal Trades, we have some doubts about IWM TNA ability to continue rising so sharply in the short term. So we recommend tight stops to protect your IWM TNA profit. Also take a look at the low-risk bullish setups that IWM typically forms after it has pulled back from a fresh high. It may be a much better low-risk high-reward setup to wait for the next "pinching" of the 20 and 50-day. Subscribe to get full access to IWM chart. Signal Trades With the renewed bullish messages from $VIX $VXN and market internals, there is no need to hedge our long positions right now. We have updated the exit targets such that some positions will be Quick Swings and others will be Big Swings. Please check Signal Trades for our current positions. Note the Watch List also.
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Click here for our recent Signal Trades.
Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 1:57 AM EST - Friday 11/20/20 Summary Big Picture: $VIX $VXN are still in a downward march. They have not yet formed a pattern indicating that they are ready to rise. Their message is still bullish. Short Term: $NDX $SPX IWM are still in an up swing technically. ... SUBSCRIBE now to read the rest of this post, including current analysis and projections for $SPX $NDX IWM. Get complete access to our intraday live Signal Trades. Take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel anytime. Click here for our Signal Trades. Click here for our recent Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 11:45 AM EST - Tuesday 11/17/20 Summary After a quick rise this morning, $VIX $VXN are continuing to form their "anchor to drop" patterns on charts in different time frames. This indicates that there are a lot of bullish tailwinds for stocks right now. We wrote at 2:15 AM "However, we may see some profit taking on Tuesday." This did turn out to be true early morning for $NDX $SPX IWM. And it was great because it relieved some of the selling pressure. Furthermore, the pullback provided opportunities to enter at a lower price. In fact, in Signal Trades our TNA buy limit order was filled and reversed upward quickly. We also decided to add SPXL to the Signal Trades portfolio. Again, SPXL target entry price from yesterday was met. At this point $NDX $SPX IWM are all in up swings based on the direction of their 200 EMA (5-minute charts). Any price pullback to anchor at the 200 EMA line is low-risk setup to enter or add to your long positions. We will be updating stops shortly in Signal Trades. Updates 2:15 AM EST - Tuesday 11/17/20 Summary Big Picture: $VIX $VXN have been dropping and are getting ready to drop even more. Conditions are highly bullish for $SPX $NDX IWM. Short Term: $NDX $SPX IWM are in up swings again. However, we may see some profit taking on Tuesday. Market Internals Market internals are sending out very bullish messages right now. Table of Support & Resistance Zones The S/R table has been updated.  $VIX $VXN   ... SUBSCRIBE now to read the rest of this post, including current analysis and projections for $SPX $NDX IWM. Get complete access to our intraday live Signal Trades. Take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel anytime. Click here for our Signal Trades. Click here for our recent Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 9:13 AM EST - Thursday 11/12/20 Pre-market Based on overnight actions, $VIX is likely to rise back up to about 29 or 30 before it can drop again. This will happen today or tomorrow. We may trade a quick swing UVXY to capture this move. While $VIX rises, $SPX IWM will drop. Again, they need to anchor in their green support zones to find enough buyers to launch into the next up swing. $VXN will most likely rise along with $VIX, back up to 33.5 or 34 . We expect $NDX to drop down and anchor in its green support zone as well. We will be monitoring for TQQQ W bottom in this zone to add one more TQQQ position. Updates 1:33 AM EST - Thursday 11/12/20 Summary Big Picture: bullish unless $VIX $VXN rise up from their consolidation zones. Short Term: $NDX $SPX IWM are all in up channels, but in order to launch the next up swing, they all need to anchor in their green support zones to bring in more buyers. Market Internals Market internals are easing up on their bullish messages. We may see market breadth going net negative on Thursday and Friday. Table of Support & Resistance Zones ... SUBSCRIBE now to read the rest of this post, including current analysis and projections for $SPX $NDX IWM. Get complete access to our intraday live Signal Trades. Take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel anytime. Click here for our Signal Trades. Click here for our Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 12:23 PM EST - Friday 11/6/20 The last couple thrusts may be big We wrote last night and pre-market this morning that the current up swing is approaching the end. However, instead of petering out at Thrust4 and starting the drop on the early side, $SPX $NDX IWM are likely to have a couple more big thrusts to propel them up quite a bit higher. $SPX $NDX IWM, as well as SPY QQQ TQQQ TNA, are likely to reach the top of their orange resistance zones early next week. In fact, this morning sharp drop at open relieved some of the profit-taking selling pressure, thereby creating an intermediate level of support to propel $SPX $NDX IWM higher. The most reassuring proof is $VIX and $VXN looking poised to drop out of their consolidation zone, as shown below. That would be bullish tailwinds for $SPX $NDX IWM to rise even more. For these reasons, we are holding our TQQQ positions in Signal Trades over the weekend.  Updates 9:18 AM EST - Friday 11/6/20 Short term up swing approaching the end As we mentioned in earlier writing today, the current up swing is approaching the end. We recommend taking partial profits.
$SPX $NDX are unlikely to rise above their 10/12 high by the end of the current short-term up swing. We expect bigger pullbacks before a new up swing starts. $VIX is bouncing inside its consolidation zone. This should provide a period of calm to support the last thrust of the current up swing. Updates 12:45 AM EST - Friday 11/6/20 Summary Short Term: Current bullish up swing that started on 11/2 may be done Friday or Monday. Minor selling will most likely follow, but nothing that's highly bearish. Big Picture: Bullish at least until after $VIX $VXN finish consolidating. ... SUBSCRIBE now to read the rest of this post, including current analysis and projections for $SPX $NDX IWM. Get complete access to our intraday live Signal Trades. Take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel anytime. Click here for our Signal Trades. Click here for our Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 1:03 PM EST - Thursday 11/5/20 FOMC FOMC announcement is at 2 PM EST today. Though we don't expect any major announcement from the Fed, we should allow for profit taking activity immediately after the announcement. $SPX $NDX IWM surged up this morning to form today's thrusts (see below). Now $SPX $NDX are in the process of snapping back to support at their 50 EMA lines (5-minute chart). Expect FOMC announcement to make them to drop towards their 200 EMA lines (5-minute chart). That would be a low-risk setup to add to your long positions based on $SPX $NDX. Additionally, $SPX $NDX IWM are expected to form the last thrust of the current up swing by tomorrow Friday. So the end target is likely to be the highs of 10/12, not 9/2. After that we may see a short-term down swing before the next up swing. Updates 9:12 AM EST - Thursday 11/5/20 Summary Short Term: Bullish for $SPX $NDX IWM. They should reach 9/2 high later next week. Pre-market $SPX $NDX IWM are gapping up big again. For today, the indices are forming these thrust counts.
Pre-market price actions currently tell us that $SPX $NDX IWM may tag yesterday's closing price before rising to form today's thrust. Earlier we had entered TQQQ Position2 in Signal Trades pre-market. We may add a TQQQ Position3 when price pulls back to tag yesterday's closing price. Updates 2:14 AM EST - Thursday 11/5/20 Summary Short Term: Bullish for $SPX $NDX IWM. They should reach 9/2 high later next week. Big Picture: Bullish at least until after $VIX $VXN finish consolidating. ... SUBSCRIBE now to read the rest of this post, including current analysis and projections for $SPX $NDX IWM. Get complete access to our intraday live Signal Trades. Take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel anytime. Click here for our Signal Trades. Click here for our Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 1:00 PM EST - Wednesday 11/4/20 Bullish for now Between now and Friday, $SPX $NDX IWM are likely to keep rising. They will attempt to retest the highs of 10/12. $VIX $VXN dropped sharply down to strong support at their 200-day EMA lines. They are likely to consolidate in this zone for a few days before they break out or break down. While $VIX $VXN are consolidating, $SPX $NDX IWM are likely to keep climbing. However, expect some major intraday swings because this market is still very headline driven. FOMC announcement is at 2:00 PM EST tomorrow Thursday. Job report is at 8:30 AM EST Friday. Neither of these events are likely to move the market much, even if there is a strong potential that the job report will be quite dismal. The final announcement of the presidential winner is likely to move the market more. In Signal Trades, we entered into one TQQQ position at market price, and placed a buy limit to add more TQQQ on a pullback. We are holding off on placing stop loss for now in anticipation of potential big and rapid swings. ... SUBSCRIBE now to read the rest of this post, including current analysis and projections for $SPX $NDX IWM. Get complete access to our intraday live Signal Trades. Take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel anytime. Click here for our Signal Trades. Click here for our Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 5:32 PM EST - Tuesday 10/27/20 After hour entries The bearish signals we discussed just before closing turned really bearish after hours. Futures are dropping sharply, $VIX swung up sharply at end of day, and $VXN anchored at support by closing. UVXY and TZA have gapped up, and SQQQ is ready to climb more. These signals indicate that market participants are growing more nervous as the election approaches. While there most likely won't be a full-blown crash as in February, we may see more selling that will take $SPX $NDX IWM to the bottom of their green support zones, or 9/24 lows. We have decided to enter one UVXY full position (Big Swing) in Signal Trades, and have placed an updated buy order to add more UVXY on minor pullbacks. We will post new Quick Swing positions pre-market. Updates 3:43 PM EST - Tuesday 10/27/20 End of day Bearish: $SPX $NDX IWM are not finding enough buyers to lift them up higher. Any attempt to seriously rise are met with selling. IWM looks vulnerable to a drop lower than 10/26 low. In our Signal Trades, we got stopped out of the Quick Swing TNA trade. Our UVXY Big Swing buy order is still intact. Updates 2:54 AM EST - Tuesday 10/27/20 Summary Bearish: $SPX $NDX IWM may continue dropping more, as $VIX $VXN continue to rise. UVXY Many traders on Stocktwits were surprised at the persistent selling in stocks today. But you had plenty of warnings. Last Thursday (2:14 AM post), we alerted you that things were turning bearish for $SPX $NDX IWM. This was based primarily on the bearish patterns of UVXY. With today's upward surge, UVXY has finished forming a big W bottom on its hourly chart. This pattern is frequently seen before UVXY rises up substantially.  $VIX We've been writing that $VIX tight range is something to be concerned about. $VIX usually contracts tightly before it surges. Today's $VIX gapped up above its 200-day EMA green line. This suggests that the contraction is now turning into a potential multi-day surge.  $VXN Similar to $VIX, $VXN is forming the kind of pattern that typically precedes a bigger rise.  Table of Support & Resistance Zones The S/R table has been updated to reflect the downward pressure on $SPX $NDX IWM. ... SUBSCRIBE now to read the rest of this post, including current analysis and projections for $SPX $NDX IWM. Get complete access to our intraday live Signal Trades. Take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel anytime. Click here for our Signal Trades. Click here for our Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 11:27 AM EST - Monday 10/26/20 Nervousness growing into more selling We are not sure if we can label it "real fear" yet, but the nervousness we talked about pre-market has morphed into some substantial selling in $SPX $NDX IWM. We do expect intraday bullish reversals for $SPX $NDX IWM. We also expect more coiling and grinding as prices go down some more. This kind of price actions can be great for day traders interested in scalping. For us, we prefer to stick with the more predictable $VIX $VXN UVXY signals. What $VIX $VXN UVXY are telling us right now is that big money is feeling quite nervous and will be hedging actively. $VIX $VXN UVXY are not at "real fear" stage yet, and certainly not "exploding panic". But the profit taking and hedging will likely continue this week. Price actions are unfolding according to the plan we outlined pre-market. In our Signal Trades:
Updates 9:12 AM EST - Monday 10/26/20 Pre-market The nervousness in the market has been detected by UVXY, TZA, and the CBOE equity put/call ratio since late last week. Now it is growing more apparent based on overnight future actions, and pre-market drops.
We have repositioned ourselves in the Signal Trades:
Updates 8:55 PM EST - Sunday (for Monday 10/26/20) ... SUBSCRIBE now to read the rest of this post, including current analysis and projections for $SPX $NDX IWM. Get complete access to our intraday live Signal Trades. Take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel anytime. Click here for our Signal Trades. Click here for our Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 12:41 PM EST - Friday 10/23/20 More volatility ahead and watch that IWM Pretty much everything we wrote pre-market today unfolded according to projections. Both $VIX and $VXN have been coiling to rise up steadily. They are likely to retest their 10/19 highs. Therefore, we are leaving our UVXY positions in place with breakeven stops to accommodate this coiling process. We project to reach our UVXY target of 18 either today or Monday. We have been tempted to enter TQQQ several times this morning because it appears to have formed bottom. However, the following clues stopped us:
$NDX QQQ TQQQ are all likely to test the bottoms of their green support zones before they can find enough buyers to rise. Similarly $SPX SPY are likely to test the tops of their green support zones. Most interesting is the wild and crazy IWM. This index has been acting as a leading indicator for us. This morning pre-market everyone was cheering the surge in small caps. But we thought it looked like IWM was about to form a 3rd short-term top. So we quietly bought TZA pre-market at 12.95. Sold it prematurely at 13.14. Wished we had kept it. Wished we had told you about it. We wrote last night that we are likely to see $SPX $NDX IWM form same high or lower high tops before the election. If IWM is truly the canary in the coal mine, it is showing us that this is very likely to happen, as IWM is in the process of forming a lower-high top. We are likely to see $SPX $NDX find short-term support next week, rise up, but run into resistance at or below the highs of 10/12. $SPX $NDX will then form lower-high tops. Meanwhile $VIX $VXN will continue to anchor and coil quietly before they break out. We are monitoring a potentially big W bottom with UVXY. For that reason, we are holding UVXY over the weekend. Updates 9:22 AM EST - Friday 10/23/20 Pre-market Quiet this morning in terms of news. $SPX IWM are set to gap up, but pre-market price actions tell us to look for profit taking with $SPX IWM when market opens. For this reason, we are not jumping into buy TQQQ just yet. We have placed buy order to enter TQQQ when it swings low again. $VIX dropped last night, but looks ready to reverse this morning. Half of our UVXY position got filled. We will see how $VIX $VXN unfolds before entering the remaining if any. Updates 2:27 AM EST - Friday 10/23/20 From now to the election The truth is no one knows what will happen on 11/3 election date. The prudent thing to do is not to build up big position ahead of this game changing date. However, between now and then, here are the scenarios we most likely will see. ... SUBSCRIBE now to read the rest of this post, including current analysis and projections for $SPX $NDX IWM. Get complete access to our intraday live Signal Trades. Take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel anytime. Click here for our Signal Trades. |
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