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Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX.
Click here for our Signal Trades. Updates 3:05 PM EST - Tuesday 3/23/21 Money Twisty Flows As the end of the month and end of the quarter approach, there are streams of money flowing in opposite directions. Fund Rebalancing: In early March, JP Morgan came out with an estimate that balanced mutual funds, defined pension plans, Norwegian oil fund and Japanese government together may sell as much as $316B in equities to rotate into bonds. Bank of America released a report overnight with a similar conclusion, but a smaller number, about $88B rotating from equities into bonds. Quant Funds Algo Buying: According to Nomura analyst, the drop in volatility recently is likely to trigger algo buying of equities. Stimulus Checks Going Into Stocks: The $1400 checks are starting to get distributed into household accounts. Analysts are expecting that a good portion of this money will get invested in the stock market. Which way will stocks go will depend on which force is the strongest, the selling faction versus the buying faction. After dropping sharply on Monday and early today, $VIX just rose sharply and $VXN is starting to rise as well. Market breadth (A/D lines) are dropping sharply for NYSE and Nasdaq stocks. Yet US 10-year yield has been steadily dropping since Friday. IWM sold off hard today. $SPX sold off moderately. $NDX went sideway. Clearly there are lots of conflicting information. One thing we can be certain of is that this market is not ready to embrace any one direction yet. So as traders, we should be careful of not committing to a direction yet either. ... Read the rest of this analysis, and get the latest entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX here.
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Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX. Click here for all our Signal Trades. Updates 1:11 PM EST- Tuesday 1/19/21 $SPX $NDX IWM continuing to rise Yesterday we wrote: "there is a higher probability that $SPX $NDX IWM may continue rising up this coming week." And this scenario is unfolding right now.
We are continuing to hold our Quick Bull TNA, but not planning to add a new position right now. The inauguration tomorrow Wednesday 1/20 is still a potentially volatile event. So we are just personally going to wait it out one more day. We prefer to give up a bit of potential gain instead of being overly exposed. If you choose to re-enter long today, exercise more precaution with your stops. Updates 10:30 PM EST- Monday (for Tuesday 1/19/21) Perspective Since mid November until early January, the stock market has been very bullish. But now there is a more cautious approach on the part of traders and investors.
Market Internals Market internal messages are turning bearish, which confirms the more cautious vibes that we are picking up.  $VIX $VXN At this point, bulls can take comfort in the fact that there is no crash signal on $VIX $VXN charts yet. Additionally, on their daily charts, $VIX $VXN show formations of short-term tops. So there is a good chance that the bullishness will continue for a while longer yet. However, it is concerning that $VIX $VXN have been going sideway for multiple weeks now. They are still not showing signs of really dropping yet. So bulls should proceed with caution here, and watch out for one potentially very bearish scenario described on $VIX $VXN charts below.   Table of Support & Resistance Zones The S/R table has been updated to show a lower level of green support zones.  $NDX $SPX IWM Note how the new green support zones are near the bottom of the yellow channels for $SPX $NDX IWM. Given that the yellow up channels are still intact and continuing to rise, these green zones should provide strong short-term support. What this means is that if $VIX $VXN do spike up big, $SPX $NDX IWM may drop down into their new green support zones. However, $SPX $NDX IWM should find sufficient buyers in these zones to resume the rise up in their yellow channels.    Signal Trades On Friday 1/15, we had re-entered just Quick Bull TNA in Signal Trades. While there is a chance that $SPX $NDX IWM may encounter more bearish headwinds from rising $VIX $VXN, there is a higher probability that $SPX $NDX IWM may continue rising up this coming week. Of the 3 indices, $RUT IWM TNA have the most bullish momentum. So we are aiming to capture a portion of the ride up, while minimizing risks by not having too many positions. See Signal Trades for actual trades. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. It is intended to supplement your own research and trading systems. Consider it as food for thought. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. While we offer scenarios for you to consider in your trade planning, know that you are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions. Why 3x ETFs like TQQQ lose money over the long term The risks of investing in inverse ETFs Simple explanations of contango and backwardation Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX. Click here for all our Signal Trades. Updates 12:30 AM EST- Wednesday 1/13/21 Summary
Market Internals Market internals are still sending out bullish messages overall.  $VIX $VXN Yesterday we wrote that it's decision time for $VIX and $VXN. During the day on Tuesday, $VIX and $VXN made the decision by forming lower high tops. Their bullish message is very clear.   ...
Read the rest of this analysis, and get the latest entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX here. Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX. Click here for all our Signal Trades. Updates 11:29 AM EST - Monday 1/4/21 $VIX $VXN rose as projected Just as we projected on Sunday, $VIX $VXN both rose sharply starting at open this morning. $SPX $NDX IWM dropped correspondingly. However, certain sectors temporarily survived $VIX $VXN bearish headwinds and rose instead. $SOX was one of those sectors, which greatly benefitted our SOXL position. At this point, in Signal Trades we have manually exited TNA due rising $VIX. We also tightened SOXL stop and got stopped out. Both trades yielded decent profits. See Signal Trades for trade history and current position. We have now booked 184.6% in profit since July 2020. There is a chance that the current elevated levels of $VIX $VXN may persist through Wednesday this week. This market is still quite bullish, but it is nervous about the runoff election in Georgia on Tuesday, and the vote certification by Congress on Wednesday. Updates 7:50 PM EST - Sunday (for Monday 1/4/21) Welcome back and Happy New Year! Summary Expect some turbulence early this week from $VIX $VXN rising moderately. Still bullish in the big picture for $SPX $NDX IWM. Market Internals Market internals still continue to diverge bearishly from $SPX $NDX IWM prices. With $VIX $VXN sending short-term bearish messages, bulls should proceed with caution.  $VXN As we mentioned above, $VIX and $VXN were sending out short-term moderately bearish messages on the last trading day of 2020. This combined with the bearish divergence from market internals means that the bulls should proceed with caution here. $VXN 2-hour chart below shows that $VXN has a good chance of surging quickly up to about 31, before it drops lower. If this setup unfolds this way, it is actually favorable for the bulls. It can trigger a dip in $NDX, relieves some selling pressure and brings in new buyers. ... Read the rest of this analysis, and get the latest entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX here. Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX. Click here for our Signal Trades. Updates 1:48 AM EST - Wednesday 12/30/20 Summary The dip for $SPX $NDX IWM came on Tuesday, just as we projected on Monday night. $VIX $VXN charts show that this is likely a shallow dip for $SPX $NDX, and the Santa Claus rally is likely to resume. Market Internals Having said that, we want to emphasize that market internals still continue to diverge bearishly from $SPX $NDX IWM prices. These dark clouds on the horizon will turn into a nasty storm at some point in the near future. Just not this week.  $VXN $VIX UVXY $VIX $VXN charts warned on Monday that they were going to rise. And just like clockwork, $VIX $VXN rose on Tuesday. So far the volatility rise is minor, and the resulting dips in $NDX $SPX are shallow. The exception is IWM which has a bigger dip. Here are the same charts that we shared yesterday, with Tuesday data added. For now $VXN $VIX UVXY have formed short-term tops and are likely to drop early Wednesday. However, $VXN $VIX UVXY may still rise further as we explained yesterday. Therefore, we have outlined bullish and bearish scenarios to monitor for. There is no guarantee which one will show up, but you will know how to interpret them as $VXN $VIX UVXY patterns unfold on Wednesday. ... Read the rest of this analysis, and get the latest entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX here. Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX. Click here for our Signal Trades. Updates 9:04 AM EST - Tuesday 12/29/20 Shallow dip Pre-market $VIX UVXY and general price actions indicate this will most likely be a shallow dip. We've exited QuickBull TNA for now because it's acting the most bearish of all the indices right now. There will opportunity to re-enter IWM TNA at a lower price. Updates 1:39 AM EST - Tuesday 12/29/20 Summary $VIX $VXN are not showing any crash signals. But they are showing that a dip for $SPX $NDX IWM is likely for Tuesday or Wednesday. Market Internals Market internals continue to diverge bearishly from $SPX $NDX IWM prices. These are the equivalents of dark clouds gathering on the horizon. At some point they can turn into a nasty storm, but right now they are just dark clouds.  Table of Support & Resistance Zones IWM and TNA S/R levels have been updated in the table below. Everything else remains the same for $SPX SPY $NDX QQQ TQQQ. ... Read the rest of this analysis, and get the latest entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX here. Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX. Click here for our Signal Trades. Updates 7:45 PM EST - Sunday (for Monday 12/21/20) Summary $SPX $NDX IWM are likely to keep marching upward to higher highs by end of year. Market Schedule This Week This will be a short week due to Christmas. Stock market will close early by 1 PM EST on Thursday 12/24, and closed on Friday 12/25. Here are the important reports for this week. Tue:
Market Internals The current bullishness in stocks is starting to verge on irrational exuberance. But as the famous economist John Maynard Keynes said, “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” It is going to be disconcerting to continue looking at the bearish divergence between market internals and stock price actions. These are the kinds of signals that can fool eager early bears. In our experience, bearish divergence can go on for quite a while. At some point, the bearish messages will have a big bearish impact. But not right now. We have to trade what's in front of us, while keeping in mind that the good times will not last forever.  $VIX $VXN While market internals are showing the start of bearish divergence, $VIX $VXN are showing the continuation of more bullishness.   ... Read the rest of this analysis, and get the latest entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX here. Click here for our Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 11:10 AM EST - Friday 12/18/20 $SPX $VIX TSLA At 12:55 AM, we posted the full analysis explaining that $VIX may rise today based on the signal from $VVIX. Indeed $VIX rose a bit, and $SPX dropped correspondingly this morning. This is not surprising. We alerted you earlier this week that today will be one of the biggest trading days in history. In addition to quadruple witching, TSLA is being added to $SPX at the close. Indexers tied to $SPX will need to buy $80B worth of TSLA, which means issuers will have to sell $80B of the remaining stocks in $SPX. Tesla will likely be roughly 1% of the S&P 500′s market capitalization after its inclusion. So the question is is this just a dip or the start of a much bigger sell-off? Read the rest of this analysis and get our highly accurate VIX-based trading signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ TNA here. Click here for our Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 12:33 PM EST - Friday 12/11/20 How deep is the dip? As we posted at 2:22 AM, there is not enough fear and panic for the current spike in volatility to qualify as a VMajor signal. A VMajor signal is what we saw between 8/26 and 9/4, and between 10/23 and 10/30. But there is definitely fretting and worrying and hand wringing and profit taking. So there is enough to cause a pullback in price. The key question now is "how deep is the dip?" The green support zones from the S/R table (posted at 2:22 AM) are key support levels. $SPX $NDX IWM are very likely to find enough buyers to resume the rise from their green support zones. But $SPX $NDX IWM may not dip that low. Don't forget that FOMC meeting starts on Tuesday next week. And market typically does not have a huge sell-off prior to FOMC meeting. Maybe after, but not before. Still this kind of sell-off can cause discomfort for the bulls. This is why we urged you to think about position management on Monday. If you book partial profit, you will have the fortitude to hold through a draw down. In a strong up trend like what we are in right now, it's very difficult to precisely time the dips. Lots of bears get burned by that. But the dips can cause enough discomfort to make the bulls get out too early. So position management is the key, and position management is a highly individual thing as it depends on how you trade. We've been sharing with you our position management strategy in Signal Trades. We hope that has been helpful. Get our highly accurate VIX-based trading signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ TNA here. Click here for our Signal Trades. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 10:55 PM EST - Wednesday (for Thursday 12/10/20) Summary Short-term: There is a high probability that $VIX $VXN are launching a major spike in volatility (VMajor). As a result, $SPX $NDX IWM are likely to drop a good amount down to their new green support zones. Big Picture: This sell-off will relieve some selling pressure, bring in new buyers to propel $SPX $NDX IWM to their new orange resistance zones by end of year. Access full analysis and our highly accurate VIX-based trading signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ TNA here. |
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