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See FAQ for more explanations on terms, labels and abbreviations that we use. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 11:28 AM EST - Thursday 7/9/20 $VIX is intent on rising up further. It turned out that $VIX wild gyration pre-market was a warning that $VIX was about to surge.
We closed out our TZA trade at 22.5 which was obviously too early. It was still a profitable 11% trade. Updates 9:44 AM EST - Thursday 7/9/20 The selling is happening as we projected. So we are using this opportunity to exit TZA. Updates 9:21 AM EST - Thursday 7/9/20 $VIX gyrated wildly early this morning, making it hard to predict the next move. For now, $VIX appears to be ready to rise at open, possibly to reach 29.3. But it is likely to drop down from there. This means that after some possible selling at open, we may see $SPX $NDX IWM rising up for a good part of the day. We don't have high confidence in these projections because $VIX is not giving us a clear message right now. Updates 12:01 AM EST - Thursday 7/9/20 <Subscribe for access to the complete analysis with tables and charts.> SUBSCRIBE now and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You get full analysis and signals in advance of your trading day. You also get live intraday signal updates. And you can cancel at any time.
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See FAQ for more explanations on terms, labels and abbreviations that we use. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 10:57 AM EST - Tuesday 7/7/20 Short Term
Updates 10:42 AM EST - Tuesday 7/7/20 Short Term $VIX is rising back up.
Updates 10:32 AM EST - Tuesday 7/7/20 Short Term While $VIX is dropping some amount, $VXN (Nasdaq volatility index) is steadily rising. This is an important bearish divergence from $NDX rising, indicating that traders are nervous. Additionally, market breadth shows a moderate net declining day for both NYSE and Nasdaq stocks. Again this is a bearish divergence, as more stocks are being sold then bought. We consider $NDX $SPX rise into the orange resistance zone as Thrust5 formation (of Bounce8). We discussed this in our post at 12:45 AM today. Keep in mind that Thrust5 is really stretching it, so take advantage of it to book your profit. Updates 9:55 AM EST - Tuesday 7/7/20 Market price actions are unfolding pretty much as we projected in our 12:45 AM updates. Short Term: $VIX
Short Term: $NDX $SPX
Short Term: IWM TZA Yesterday we posted a few entry zones for TZA throughout the day. At 9:41AM we wrote:
At 12:45 PM we wrote:
Some members day traded TZA, but some used these entry points to build up the position. Congratulations! If you are building TZA position today, look for.
Updates 9:13 AM EST - Tuesday 7/7/20 Short Term Trades The indices are gapping down this morning pre-market, and $VIX is climbing up. We are not going to get the signal combination we were looking for as the ideal setup to enter short against $RUT IWM. Here are updated signals to look for.
Updates 12:45 AM EST - Tuesday 7/7/20 <Subscribe for full nightly analysis.> Here's a comment from one of our members who successful day traded using our signal at on Tuesday 7/7/20.  SUBSCRIBE now and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You get full analysis and signals in advance of your trading day. You also get live intraday signal updates. And you can cancel at any time. See FAQ for more explanations on terms, labels and abbreviations that we use. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 12:20 PM EST - Monday 7/6/20 Short Term Trades TZA turned out to be a terrific trade this morning. It retested 20.17 right after our 9:41 AM alert. TZA rose all the way to 21.2. This was a highly profitable move for members who day traded. But it is also part of a bigger-picture move for those who trade short-term swings. Updates 9:41 AM EST - Monday 7/6/20 Short Term Trades Our signal predicted the bearish reversal, and it is happening for $RUT IWM.
Updates 9:18 AM EST - Monday 7/6/20 Short Term Trades In yesterday's weekend analysis, we share with you this key information below. We are repeating it here for emphasis, because the signals are happening. Here is the bearish combination of signals that we are monitoring for.
And yes, we just observed this bearish combination of signals pre-market.
This is an indication to tighten stop or take profit with your Bounce8 $SPX $NDX positions. This is also a low-risk setup to test TZA near 18.8 if you use a tight stop. Here's a comment from one of our members who successful day traded using our signal at the start of Monday 7/6/20.  SUBSCRIBE now and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You get full analysis and signals in advance of your trading day. You also get live intraday signal updates. And you can cancel at any time. See FAQ for more explanations on terms, labels and abbreviations that we use. Below is an excerpt from our in-depth weekend analysis for members. Updates 2:34 PM EST - Sunday 7/5/20 Long Term Portfolio and Medium Term Trades The main message from $SPX $NDX IWM is this.
This does not bode well for the continued strength of the bear market rally. But it will take some transition time before Dive2 arrives. The key date to monitor for the near future is FOMC announcement on July 31. Let's drill down into the signals. Market Internals The overall message from market internals is that there is a bearish divergence brewing for multiple indicators. Market breadth: Bounce8 started on 6/29, and between 6/29 and 7/2, NYSE and Nasdaq stocks have been having mostly net advancing days. However, even though this is the case, the cumulative readings for NYSE and Nasdaq A/D are down. This is a bearish divergence. Additionally, Nasdaq stocks are exhibiting the bearish divergence patterns that showed up before between August and October 2018, and January and February this year. Percentage of stocks above their 200-day MA:
Equity put/call ratio: This ratio is in neutral territory right now, so it is hard to call. Volume:
The rest of this post covers Volatility Short Term Support & Resistance Zones 5-minute Chart Thrust Counts Important Hourly Chart Patterns Short Term Trade Setups SUBSCRIBE now and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You get full analysis and signals in advance of your trading day. You also get live intraday signal updates. And you can cancel at any time. See FAQ for more explanations on terms, labels and abbreviations that we use. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 9:22 AM EST - Thursday 7/2/20 Short Term Unexpectedly strong job report pushes $SPX $NDX IWM up pre-market. $VIX has gapped down big early this morning, but it then reversed sharply pre-market. Overnight $VIX dropped from 28.4 to 25.9, but has reversed sharply upward to 26.9. $VIX is definitely on the move up, but its actions may not get reflected in price immediately. This kind of bearish divergence can last for days. Snapback to green zone has to happen in order for the next thrust to form by definition. Otherwise the current thrust will get extended for another day, but obviously a thrust doesn't go on forever. We will be tracking $VIX and the snapback to the green zone today. Please remember that this is simply a snapback to a shallow zone of support. It is not the end of Bounce8. It is not the start of Dive2. Updates 9:45 AM EST - Thursday 7/2/20 Short Term Updated green zones of shallow support: $SPX: 3102 to 3128 $NDX: 10276 to 10319 IWM: 142.5 to 143.4 It is not a guarantee that $SPX $NDX IWM will snap back to the green zone today. But if they do dip a bit today, the green zone is where they are likely to dip into. Updates 11:12 AM EST - Thursday 7/2/20 Short Term Recall we said $VIX gapped down big this morning but reversed upward sharply. $VIX is persisting with this formation. The message from $VIX is it's intending to rise some more. Our members base their trading plans on our nightly analysis and projections, along with timely intraday calls. Some have been collecting 10% to 15% profits per week. SUBSCRIBE now to get our signals in advance of your trading day. Get live trade updates and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel at any time. See FAQ for more explanations on terms, labels and abbreviations that we use. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 4:55 PM EST - Sunday 6/28/20 We would like to welcome all new subscribers. Please read our FAQ for more explanations on terms, labels and abbreviations that we use. Long-term portfolio and medium term trades Our latest analysis of market conditions reveals a lot of bearish signals. This does not bode well for long-term equity portfolio, or medium-term long positions. However, Dive2 is not necessarily taking off this coming week, or even in July. Instead the transition to Dive2 may be a choppy market that frustrates both bulls and bears. We project that Dive2 will arrive in a big way after the next FOMC announcement on 7/29. August is the worst month for the Dow and S&P since 1987, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Let's examine the signals in more detail. Signals from the Fed The Fed has been sending out some big messages, yet retail investors and financial headlines so far have not zeroed in on these messages. Here they are:
Signals from market internals Volatility: See further below for expanded discussion. Market breadth: NYSE and Nasdaq A/D charts are all bearish currently. However, the most concerning chart is Nasdaq A/D cumulative chart ($NAAD on Stockcharts.com). It shows the same bearish divergence observed between Jan and Feb 2020, and between Aug and Oct 2018. The divergence is this. There were less net advancing Nasdaq stocks in Feb 2020 compared to Jan, even though $NDX rose to a new high between Jan and Feb. There are now even less net advancing Nasdaq stocks than back in Jan, even though $NDX rose to a new all-time high last week. At some point soon, prices will wake up to this bearish divergence and start to head down as well. Equity put/call ratio: This daily chart for this ratio (PCCE on TradingView.com) shows a W bottoming pattern, indicating it is likely to rise up substantially. When this ratio rises, it is bearish for stocks. Percentage of bullish stocks: Again we are observing the same bearish divergence here. $NDX has been forming higher highs since 6/10 while this index ($BPNDX on Stockcharts.com) has been forming lower highs. Signals from bond market TLT chart shows long term bonds are coiling to rise. Meanwhile junk bond ETFs (JNK HYG) have trending down since the start of Jun, despite buying from the Fed. Junk bonds tend to behave more like stocks because they tend to rise in risk-on environment. The message here is that big money is moving more into risk-off defensive mode, and poised to move out of equity. This could be due to mid-year portfolio rebalancing by pension and hedge funds. But it could also be due to big money sensing the arrival of Dive2. Subscribe to read the rest of this post which covers: Signals from monthly charts Signals from $VIX Short-term trade setups Our members base their trading plans on our nightly analysis and projections, along with timely intraday calls. Some have been collecting 10% to 15% profits per week, or sometimes as much per day. SUBSCRIBE now to get our signals in advance of your trading day. Get live trade updates and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel at any time. See FAQ for more explanations on terms, labels and abbreviations that we use. Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members. Updates 10:23 AM EST - Friday 6/26/20 We warned earlier today that Bounce8 is in trouble if:
We also warned do not enter short just yet. This statement is still true. We will post more analysis shortly about where $VIX $VXN are heading, and when you can begin shorting. The boss indicators $VIX $VXN are definitely in charge of the market today. Updates 9:29 AM EST - Friday 6/26/20 Here are the updated conditions that we are tracking, and updated entry/exit rules for today. Bullish: Bounce8 is intact if:
Bearish: Bounce8 is in trouble if:
When these bearish combinations are seen, it's a signal to exit long $RUT IWM. However do not enter short just yet. While this is a very choppy market, it is not yet ready to drop big. Furthermore, we need better setup for short entries. Recommended position management techniques in choppy markets:
Our members base their trading plans on our nightly analysis and projections, along with timely intraday calls. Some have been collecting 10% to 15% profits per week, or sometimes as much per day. SUBSCRIBE now to get our signals in advance of your trading day. Get live trade updates and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel at any time. See FAQ for more explanations on terms, labels and abbreviations that we use. Below is an excerpt from this weekend full analysis, posted Sunday 6/21/20. In last weekend analysis, we wrote that $SPX $NDX IWM were likely to find support in the green support zone on Monday 6/15, and they would rise up and get stuck in the orange resistance zone. This is pretty much what happened on 6/15 and 6/16. On Thursday 6/18, we wrote: There is now a better chance that $SPX $NDX IWM will be able to rise towards the top of their orange resistance zones. Keep in mind that this thrust is Thrust4 of Bounce7 for $NDX. Bounce7 is still on schedule to end after Thrust4. Indeed on Friday 6/19, $SPX $NDX IWM gapped up into their orange resistance zone as we anticipated. Then at 10:27 AM we wrote: Here are the conditions we are monitoring for to indicate Bounce7 is still intact.
Soon after, $SPX $NDX IWM dropped below the morning low, and $VIX rose up above 31.5. This combination told us that Bounce7 has ended. And as projected, $SPX $NDX IWM ended up with a bearish engulfing candle day. So now what? Bounce7 has ended. Are $SPX $NDX IWM starting the highly bearish Dive2, or are they just going to snap back to support at the bottom of the channel again? To answer that we turn to market internals. Our members base their trading plans on our nightly analysis and projections, along with timely intraday calls. Some have been collecting 5% to 7% profits per week, or sometimes as much per day. SUBSCRIBE now to get our signals in advance of your trading day. Get live trade updates and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel at any time. Below is an excerpt from our latest updates posted at 1:15 AM EST Thursday 6/11/20. Our members had lots of warnings since 6/9 about the impending end of Bounce6. At 1:15 AM Wednesday 6/10, we wrote: These indicators are telling us that Bounce6 is likely to end. For short-term positions that have been riding Bounce6 up, the prudent move is to consider locking in profits.... The most likely move after Bounce6 ends is for $SPX $NDX IWM to snap back to strong support zones near the bottoms of their respective channels. This is pretty much what happened Wednesday 6/10. Bounce6 ended for $NDX. Bounce6 already ended for $SPX IWM on 6/8. $SPX IWM started heading down early Wednesday. Now future prices are marching down sharply. Here are the current messages from market internals. ... SUBSCRIBE now to get our signals in advance of your trading day. Get live trade updates and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel at any time. Our observations and comments on Stocktwits don’t always reflect our short-term trading calls, published in the members section daily. So we thought we would share with you our calls since 6/1. 6/1: "still a moderate net advancing day….setup not "ripe" enough yet for entering short." 6/2: "IWM and RTY show an upward coiling pattern. This supports the general rise in price for $SPX $NDX IWM." 6/3: "Overall, market internals and price actions still favor the bulls on Wednesday." 6/4: "Minor Dip scenario… going from Support1/2 back up to Resistance1/2." 6/5: "The buying momentum is quite strong….Note that we do not think prices will revisit the support zone today." As one of our members pointed out, an entry into IWM on 6/2 per our call would result in over 8.5% gain by today. An entry into TNA would result in almost 27% gain. SUBSCRIBE now to get our signals in advance of your trading day. Get live trade updates and take advantage of our introductory low rate of just $39/month. You can cancel at any time. |
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