Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX.
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​Updates 8:28 PM EST- Sunday (for Monday 5/24/21)

Perspective
According to WSJ: 
Several Federal Reserve officials said Friday that the day is approaching when the central bank will dial back the stimulus it is providing the U.S. economy, but they didn’t say when.

The Fed is clearly warming up the investor mindsets to transition to a tighter monetary policy.   It won't be "if".  It will be "when".   This key decision will continue to loom over the economy, and will be watched closely at the upcoming FOMC announcement on 6/16.   

​More Fed speakers are scheduled for this coming week.   Some closely watched economics reports will be:

Tue:  Case-Shiller Home Price Index, New Home Sales
Thu:  Durable Goods Orders,  GDP, Jobless Claims 
Fri:    Personal Income & Outlays

Friday's report is quite important as it is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.    Friday may be a volatile day for all assets as all markets are closed on Monday 5/31 for Memorial Day.

While the Fed waits for their official data, most consumers will say it feels like rampant inflation is already here, in the price of houses, cars, food, and basic commodities.   Don't forget the staggering costs of higher education and healthcare.    

However, we've been observing that the following traditional inflation havens appear to have formed tops and have been dropping in the last couple weeks:

• TIP bonds (TIP)
• REITs (IYR)
• Commodities (COM)

Real gold (GLD) is still standing, while digital gold (BTC, ETH, DOGE) is heading to the abyss instead of the moon.   

The most interesting charts though are those of Treasury bonds (TLT, IEF).  They have been anchoring at support for the last several weeks, and appear to be ready to rise.   This means important yields like US 10-year are likely to drop.

To us, this means that investors are not as concerned about long-term inflation as the headlines would have us believed.   In the short term, it may mean that the rotation into commodities and value stocks that started in late 2020 are fading.   

Instead we may start to see the rotation back into technology.  Confirmations of this thesis are on the charts of TSLA and ARKK, the bellwether of tech risk takers.   They both formed nice bullish hammers at key support levels on their weekly charts.

​...
​Read the rest of this analysis, and get the latest entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX here.

$SPX
If $VIX is going to contract and form a gradual series of lower highs, $SPX is very likely going to contract into the range between its 50 EMA red line and its green support zone.   ​

Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX.
Click here for our Signal Trades. 

Updates 2:30 AM EST- Friday 5/14/21
​
​Perspective
Friday's economic reports are likely to move the market into another big swing.   The question is which way.   The answer is both.    We'll explain below.

Table of Support & Resistance Zones
The S/R table below has been updated.   The green support zone is where this current major pullback may end.   The orange resistance zone is short-term strong resistance level.

Read the rest of this analysis, and get the latest entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX here.

$NDX Weekly
$NDX weekly chart shows a bearish divergence between price and RSI.   This is yet another indicator that echos the bearish message from A/D and Put/Call ratio.   

This tells us that while we may see enthusiastic bounce from recent drops, in the big picture context, $NDX (like IWM) is quite vulnerable.   ​

​Click here for our latest buy targets in Signal Trades.

Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX.
Click here for our Signal Trades. 

Updates 2:30 AM EST- Thursday 5/13/21
​
​Perspective
Market was not happy about the CPI report on Wednesday morning.  As a result,    $SPX $NDX IWM all dropped sharply, and $VIX $VXN $RVX surged up substantially.

We shared with you yesterday warnings from various indicators:
It appears that $NDX is continuing the process of pulling back, much more so than $SPX and IWM.  There are important indicators sending out highly bearish messages about $NDX.   They confirm that the sell-off may be substantial.

Now we need to determine the potential scope of this major pullback.   Could it be a crash?

Table of Support & Resistance Zones
The S/R table below has been updated.   The green support zone is where this current major pullback may end.   The orange resistance zone is short-term strong resistance level.

Read the rest of this analysis, and get the latest entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX here.

IWM
IWM weekly chart looks very vulnerable to a major drop.   It may not happen right away, but IWM is now sitting just below its 20-week EMA blue line.   Not finding enough support here may mean IWM eventually dropping down to its 50-week EMA red line near 190.​

Updates 1:11 PM EST- Tuesday 1/19/21
​
$SPX $NDX IWM continuing to rise
Yesterday we wrote: "there is a higher probability that  $SPX $NDX IWM may continue rising up this coming week."   

And this scenario is unfolding right now.

• $VIX $VXN are heading down along with UVXY and $VVIX >> bullish
• NYSE and Nasdaq A/D net issues are fairly positive >> bullish
• $NDX $SPX IWM all gapped up this morning, and are now about to take off. 

We are continuing to hold our Quick Bull TNA, but not planning to add a new position right now.   The inauguration tomorrow Wednesday 1/20 is still a potentially volatile event.   So we are just personally going to wait it out one more day.   We prefer to give up a bit of potential gain instead of being overly exposed.

If you choose to re-enter long today, exercise more precaution with your stops.

Updates 10:30 PM EST- Monday (for Tuesday 1/19/21)

Perspective
Since mid November until early January, the stock market has been very bullish.   But now there is a more cautious approach on the part of traders and investors.   

• The appetite for risk is slightly diminished.   This is most evident in the current topping pattern for bitcoin price.

​

• There has been more chatter about rising inflation.   You can read more about its implication here.

​

• Both $VIX and $VXN have been in a sideway pattern for several weeks.   This has bearish implications.   See more below.

​

• ​This coming week is relatively mild in economics data, but all eyes will be on Washington leading to the inauguration on January 20.   This event will be unpredictable, and the outcome may or may not result in a shock to the market.   

Traders should keep all this in mind, and protect your profits and consider trading less positions.   There is no crash signal on the horizon right now, so if all goes well, $SPX $NDX IWM should continue to rise in their up channels.  However, there is no point in taking on too much risk ahead of potential turbulence.   Market will reveal its hand soon enough.

Market Internals
Market internal messages are turning bearish, which confirms the more cautious vibes that we are picking up.

​$VIX $VXN
At this point, bulls can take comfort in the fact that there is no crash signal on $VIX $VXN charts yet.   Additionally, on their daily charts, $VIX $VXN show formations of short-term tops.   

So there is a good chance that the bullishness will continue for a while longer yet.  However, it is concerning that $VIX $VXN have been going sideway for multiple weeks now.  They are still not showing signs of really dropping yet.   

​So bulls should proceed with caution here, and watch out for one potentially very bearish scenario described on $VIX $VXN charts below.

Table of Support & Resistance Zones
The S/R table has been updated to show a lower level of green support zones.  ​

​$NDX $SPX IWM
Note how the new green support zones are near the bottom of the yellow channels for $SPX $NDX IWM.   Given that the yellow up channels are still intact and continuing to rise, these green zones should provide strong short-term support.

What this means is that if $VIX $VXN do spike up big, $SPX $NDX IWM may drop down into their new green support zones.   However, $SPX $NDX IWM should find sufficient buyers in these zones to resume the rise up in their yellow channels.

​Updates 12:30 AM EST- Wednesday 1/13/21

Summary

• $VIX $VXN are ready to provide more bullish tailwinds for $SPX $NDX IWM.   
• $SPX $NDX may be in a shallow dip, but they are likely to resume their rise along with IWM, up to their orange resistance zones.   
• $SPX $NDX IWM up channels are intact and continuing to rise.

        
Market Internals
Market internals are still sending out bullish messages overall.

​$VIX $VXN
Yesterday we wrote that it's decision time for $VIX and $VXN.   During the day on Tuesday, $VIX and $VXN made the decision by forming lower high tops.   Their bullish message is very clear.

Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX.
Click here for all our Signal Trades.   ​

Entry/exit signals for SPY QQQ TQQQ IWM SPX NDX based on VIX.
Click here for our Signal Trades.   

Updates 1:48 AM EST - Wednesday 12/30/20

Summary
The dip for $SPX $NDX IWM came on Tuesday, just as we projected on Monday night.  $VIX $VXN charts show that this is likely a shallow dip for $SPX $NDX, and the Santa Claus rally is likely to resume.
        
Market Internals
Having said that, we want to emphasize that market internals still continue to diverge bearishly from $SPX $NDX IWM prices.   These dark clouds on the horizon will turn into a nasty storm at some point in the near future.   Just not this week.