Updates 4 PM ET - Monday Tight stops protected our profit Bull Runner SOXL: On Wednesday Feb 7, we entered a half position of SOXL when NQ started breaking out. We have been holding this as a runner to capture NQ rising to 18200. (Today NQ reached 18122 and then dropped.) Bull Runner TNA: On Thursday Feb 8 , we re-entered a half position of TNA when RTY formed a big W bottom on its hourly chart. We held this as a runner to capture RTY rising to 2060. (Today RTY reached 2061 and then dropped.) Today VIX started rising sharply so per our discussion below, we tightened the stop and got stopped out of both TNA and SOXL for good profit when the afternoon selling kicked in.  Updates 12:20 PM ET - Monday VIX is rising >> Choppy Bull emerging We posted earlier (see below) that we need to monitor for rising VIX and UVXY. VIX gapped up overnight and now they are both steadily rising this morning. This means the Strong Bull mode may be transitioning to Choppy Bull mode, with moderate dip as a possibility for ES NQ RTY. It won't happen right away but now is the time be cautious with our bull positions. We have been tightening stops on both our SOXL and TNA runner positions. SOXL got stopped out for a good sized profit. TNA is still intact and rising. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Updates 1:10 PM ET - Sunday Upcoming key events If you are into excitement, this is the week for you with plenty of economic news, along with VIXEx and OpEx. Market is sure to have some big moves. The question is what will they be. Read more economic analysis here, and read on.  Strong Bull market mode continues Technically ES NQ RTY are back in Strong Bull mode, and this may continue until OpEx on Friday Feb 16. McClellan Oscillator for both NYSE and Nasdaq (Stockcharts.com $NYMO $NAMO) are showing higher low rising bottoms. This is very good news as it indicates that equity is coming out negative phase into the positive one. Once the positive phase start for $NYMO $NAMO, it can last 4-8 weeks. This strengthens the case for Strong Bull mode to continue.  Volatility supports this Strong Bull mode as long as VIX keeps dropping. But if VIX forms a same low base around 11.8, then it's a signal that equity may be entering Weak Bull mode. In this mode, VIX is likely to climb back up to 15.2, possibly reaching 16.5 eventually. Weak Bull mode can lead to a big dip for ES NQ RTY. So keep an eye on what VIX does at this level. Keep an eye on UVXY also. If UVXY does not drop below 6.94 and instead starts to base early this week, then equity may be switching to Choppy Bull mode. Choppy Bull mode can may result in a moderate dip for ES NQ RTY. After the dip, we should see enough buyers coming back to turn the market into Strong Bull mode again. There is no setup for a Strong Bear market on the horizon right now.  Key S/R levels NQ:
ES
RTY
Our personal trade plan 1. Bull Quick Profit SOXL: We will be looking for a shallow intraday dip to re-enter SOXL for a QP (Quick Profit) trade. 2. Bull Runner SOXL: On Feb 7, we entered a half position of SOXL when NQ started breaking out. As long as NQ remains in Strong Bull mode, we plan to hold this as a runner to capture NQ rising to 18300. 3. Bull Runner TNA: On Feb 8, we re-entered a half position of TNA when RTY formed a big W bottom on its hourly chart. As long as RTY remains in Strong Bull mode, we plan to hold this as a runner to capture RTY rising to 2097. Note that if we see the VIX W bottom or UVXY basing as discussed above, we'll manually exit all bull positions because the dip will knock out our positions. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.
0 Comments
Updates 9:11 AM ET - Monday Strong Bull mode continued overnight ES NQ RTY all shot up overnight, with ES tagging 5040 as projected. We plan to continue holding the two runner positions TNA and SOXL and will monitor for intraday pullback to enter SOXL for the Quick Profit trade. It may or may not come, but it has certainly been a decent week for the bulls.   Big picture: bull market; short-term: strong buying momentum returns Technically ES NQ RTY are back in Strong Bull mode, and this may continue until OpEx on Friday Feb 16. So what could go wrong to wreck this party? VIX. We will be monitoring for these patterns that shows when volatility is most likely going to rise.
If VIX starts to rise from here, then the signal for the Strong Bull mode has failed. And a failed signal will send the market in the opposite direction quickly. In other words, instead of a Strong Bull, we'll get a very Weak Bull with lots of selling that can lead to a substantial dip. But until these patterns show up, the Strong Bull is in charge. Key S/R levels NQ levels and pattern have not changed. NQ has broken out above resistance at 17775. While it may quickly dip to retest 17725 on Friday, NQ will march up and will reach 18000 soon. NQ may even reach 18200 by OpEx. Short-term support lies at 17475. ES levels and pattern have not changed. ES has broken out above resistance at 5000. While it may quickly dip to retest 5000 on Thursday, ES will march up and will reach 5040 soon. ES may even reach 5075 by OpEx. Short-term support lies at 4980. RTY has formed a beautiful W bottom between Monday and Thursday this week to retest 1925 again. We can see this clearly on RTY hourly chart. RTY broke out of this bottom on Thursday morning, and is likely to rise up to 2060 possibly by OpEx. Our personal trade plan 1. Bull Quick Profit SOXL: On Thursday Feb 8, we did an intraday tactical trade and collected a small profit on half position of SOXL. We plan to repeat this on Friday if we get a bullish setup to re-enter SOXL. 2. Bull Runner SOXL: On Wednesday Feb 7, we entered a half position of SOXLwhen NQ started breaking out. We plan to hold this as a runner to capture NQ rising to 18200. 3. Bull Runner TNA: On Thursday Feb 8, we re-entered a half position of TNA when RTY formed a big W bottom on its hourly chart. We plan to hold this as a runner to capture RTY rising to 2060. Note that if we see any of the VIX or UVXY pattern discussed above, we'll manually exit all bull positions. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.
Updates 7:25 PM ET - Thursday Traded SOXL and TNA 1. Bull Quick Profit SOXL: Today we did an intraday tactical trade and collected a small profit on half position of SOXL. 2. Bull Runner SOXL: On Wednesday Feb 7, we entered a half position of SOXL when NQ started breaking out. We continue to hold this as a runner to capture NQ rising to 18200. 3. Bull Runner TNA: Today we re-entered a half position of TNA when RTY formed a big W bottom on its hourly chart. We plan to hold this as a runner to capture RTY rising to 2060.   Big picture: bull market; short-term: strong buying momentum returns On its 4-hour chart, VIX 20 EMA blue line just crossed below its 200 EMA green line. This is bullish for equity, even if it's just short term. On their hourly charts S&P and Nasdaq Advance-Decline Percents (Stockcharts $SPXADP $NDXADP) continue to form W bottom. This implies at least a short-term rise for ES and NQ. McClellan Oscillator for both NYSE and Nasdaq (Stockcharts $NYMO $NAMO) both are forming W bottom on their daily charts via their 20-day EMA lines. This implies at least a short-term rise for ES and NQ. 10-year yield (US10Y) is basing. It may rise from here, but the basing process is going to take some time and meanwhile yield is likely to drop short term. Key S/R levels NQ has broken out above resistance at 17775. While it may quickly dip to retest 17725 on Thursday, NQ will march up and will reach 18000 soon. NQ may even reach 18200 by OpEx. Short-term support lies at 17475. ES has broken out above resistance at 5000. While it may quickly dip to retest 5000 on Thursday, ES will march up and will reach 5040 soon. NQ may even reach 5075 by OpEx. Short-term support lies at 4980. RTY is likely to retest 1925 again. If it finds enough support here, it will form a W bottom for a big rise up to 2060 eventually. However, if RTY drops below 1905, then selling will accelerate and can drop RTY down to key support at 1835. Our personal trade plan Bull position 1: We entered a half position of SOXL when NQ started breaking out. We look to add the remaining half SOXL on Thursday. Bull position 2: We tested the bullish rise in TNA when RTY found support at the morning low. However, after hour price actions showed RTY likely to test 1925 again. This means TNA is likely to retest 32.7. So we exited TNA to possibly re-enter at a lower price on Thursday. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.
Updates 7:25 PM ET - Wednesday Scaling into SOXL   Big picture: bull market; indicators are signaling bullish turn On its 4-hour chart, VIX 20 EMA blue line just crossed below its 200 EMA green line. This is bullish for equity, even if it's just short term. On their hourly charts S&P and Nasdaq Advance-Decline Percents (Stockcharts $SPXADP $NDXADP) are forming W bottom. This implies at least a short-term rise for ES and NQ. McClellan Oscillator for both NYSE and Nasdaq (Stockcharts $NYMO $NAMO) both are forming W bottom on their daily charts via their 20-day EMA lines. This implies at least a short-term rise for ES and NQ. 10-year yield (US10Y) is basing. It may rise from here, but the basing process is going to take some time and meanwhile yield is likely to drop short term. Key S/R levels ES is coiling up and likely to surpass 4997 to reach 5040 given the more bullish messages from the indicators. NQ meanwhile appears to run into resistance at 17775. Failure to rise above 17775 will lead NQ to grind its way downward, eventually down to 17000 for key support post CPI next week. Look for RTY to retest the zone from 1925 - 1935. If it finds enough support here, it will form a W bottom for a big rise up to 2050 eventually. Here's a view of RTY weekly chart which shows bullish hammers at same support level for multiple weeks.  Our personal trade plan We are now positioning to scale into TNA if RTY successfully retests support. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.
Updates 4 PM ET - Monday Exited SOXL We manually took profit on half of our SOXL position ahead of the weekend, and got stopped out of the remaining half today for a gain of 4.5% total. See the original entry here.  Updates 2:45 PM ET - Sunday Upcoming key events This week is much lighter in news and announcements so traders can take a break to get ready for next week's excitement. Read more economic analysis here.  Big picture: bull market; short term: dip possible The bull trend continues, but the indicators also continue to suggest that there's bearishness building up under the hood. This is likely to lead to a dip (not a bear market). The question is how big and how long will this dip be. The indicators cannot tell us that right now, so we simply have to monitor price behaviors at key S/R levels for ES NQ RTY. Volatility rising VIX 4-hour chart below shows a flat sideway 200 EMA green line, and a coiling and rising 20 EMA blue line. This combination resulted in VIX surge back in March and August through October last year (see red arrows below). There is a good chance that this surge will happen again so bulls should protect profits here.  Breadth declining S&P and Nasdaq Advance-Decline Percents (Stockcharts $SPXADP $NDXADP) continue to show lower high topping patterns on their daily charts. They support the possibility of ES NQ RTY dipping to test key support levels. McClellan Oscillator for both NYSE and Nasdaq (Stockcharts $NYMO $NAMO) are back in negative territory. They confirm the above bearish messages. Rates rising After the hot job report on Friday, yields all rose sharply (US10Y; US20Y; US02Y). Junk bonds (JNK HYG) have been signaling bond selling by forming same high multi-tops since December 28. Key S/R levels NQ: Despite the messages from VIX and market breadth, NQ failed to drop to key support at 17000 after FOMC announcement. The failed signal gave it a strong push back up, and by Friday NQ is back up near the key resistance level of 17794. This level has generated three short term tops at this point, so don't be surprised if NQ spends multiple days this week chopping in this zone between 17475 and 17794. CPI report on February 13 will likely be the catalyst to either pop NQ up from this chop zone, or drop NQ down from this chop zone. Note that we are not anticipating fresh multi-week breakout or breakdown. Rather, if NQ rises out of this zone, it is likely to run into short-term top at 18000 ahead of OpEx. If NQ drops from this zone, it is likely to find buyer support at 17000 to resume the bullish climb.  ES: Like NQ, ES failed to drop to key support at 4840 after FOMC announcement. The failed signal gave ES a strong push back up. ES is likely to spend this week digesting the gain. Look for ES to spend multiple days this week chopping in the zone between 4930 and 4997. CPI report on February 13 may be the catalyst to push ES up to short-term top at 5040 ahead of OpEx. If CPI results in bearish response instead, ES may drop from the chop zone down to 4840 before resuming the bullish climb. RTY: RTY has been dropping and is likely to continue doing so for the early part of this week. Its chop zone is 1940 - 1987. CPI report on February 13 may be the catalyst to push RTY up to short-term top at 2050 ahead of OpEx. If CPI results in bearish response instead, RTY may drop from the chop zone down to 1890. Our personal trade plan We bought SOXL on Thursday after seeing the failure to drop signal. We collected profit on 1/2 position on Friday because the bearish messages from the indicators made us nervous. We are still holding the other half of SOXL to reach sell target. Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet. Disclaimer The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades. |
Archives
July 2024
Categories |
RSS Feed
|
|
Copyright (c) 2019-2024 LOOK Systems LLC
All rights reserved. |