Signals & Trading Plan for Monday 6/10/19

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Slowing Growth vs. Rate Cut
Friday's job report provides additional confirming data that the US economy is slowing, primarily as a result of the tariff war.   From the Wall Street Journal:

• Job growth has averaged 164,000 this year compared to 223,000 in 2018 and 217,000 during Barack Obama’s second term.
• The U.S. labor force has lost 583,000 workers since January, the first springtime decline since 2013.
• The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index declined 0.7 percentage points last month to 52.1%.
• Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% last month, which is down from 3.2% in April and 3.4% in February.
• The 10-year Treasury is hovering a little over 2% as investors mark down their expectations for global growth.
• The labor-market warning reinforces other evidence that the uncertainty caused by scattershot tariffs is now hurting employment as well as investment.

It will take some time, but there is no doubt this slowdown will have global impact, and is likely to bring about the end of the 10-year old bull market. 

In the short term though, the promise of potential rate cuts by the Fed can provide tailwind for stocks for now.  

The rest of this article covers:
Market internals
Surge1: support and resistance levels
Trading plan

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