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Here is an excerpt from our trading plan.
Dip1 has arrived
Yesterday evening 6/10 we wrote: “even if Surge1 stretches upward a little more tomorrow, we don’t think it’s a good idea to chase it up from here.”
Surge1 did stretch upward when $SPX $NDX $RUT gapped up this morning. But then they promptly dropped. By 11 AM EST, we saw a number of confirming factors that Dip1 was starting.
In “Market internals” we will provide more explanations of what we saw as confirmations. But first, let’s look at the big picture.
Rate cut is not guaranteed
Rate cut is not guaranteed, especially in the upcoming FOMC meeting next week June 18-19. Goldman says today that “although it is a close call, we still expect the FOMC to keep the funds rate unchanged in the remainder of the year.”
Over the last three weeks, as JPMorgan, Barclays, Credit Suisse, BofA and others have been saying rate cut is very likely this year, but Goldman has not joined in this chorus.
All this bullishness since June 4 has been due to the Fed’s promise of a potential rate cut. Not getting one in June, or not having this promise reinforced, may result in another nasty tantrum by the market. But the Fed is facing uncharted dangerous territory in trying to maintain their independence and the market’s trust in that independence. In many ways, they are damned if they cut rates, and damned if they don’t.
All of this is a roundabout way of saying that next week’s FOMC meeting on June 18-19 is gonna be a doozy. Keep that in mind if you are planning to build any long-term position.
The rest of this article covers:
Dip1: support and resistance levels
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