Updates for Friday 10/23/20

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Below is a time-delayed excerpt from our live updates for members.

Updates 12:41 PM EST - Friday 10/23/20

More volatility ahead and watch that IWM
Pretty much everything we wrote pre-market today unfolded according to projections.  

Both $VIX and $VXN have been coiling to rise up steadily.  They are likely to retest their 10/19 highs.   Therefore, we are leaving our UVXY positions in place with breakeven stops to accommodate this coiling process.   We project to reach our UVXY target of 18 either today or Monday.

We have been tempted to enter TQQQ several times this morning because it appears to have formed bottom.   However, the following clues stopped us:

• Steadily rising $VIX $VXN.
• Steadily rising SQQQ.  Its 5-min chart shows a steadily rising 200 EMA line and a coiling pattern.
• Steadily dropping NQ (Nasdaq future).

$NDX QQQ TQQQ are all likely to test the bottoms of their green support zones before they can find enough buyers to rise.

Similarly $SPX SPY are likely to test the tops of their green support zones.

Most interesting is the wild and crazy IWM.   This index has been acting as a leading indicator for us.   This morning pre-market everyone was cheering the surge in small caps.   But we thought it looked like IWM was about to form a 3rd short-term top.   So we quietly bought TZA pre-market at 12.95.   Sold it prematurely at 13.14.   Wished we had kept it.   Wished we had told you about it.  

We wrote last night that we are likely to see $SPX $NDX IWM form same high or lower high tops before the election.   If IWM is truly the canary in the coal mine, it is showing us that this is very likely to happen, as IWM is in the process of forming a lower-high top.   

We are likely to see $SPX $NDX find short-term support next week, rise up, but run into resistance at or below the highs of 10/12.   $SPX $NDX will then form lower-high tops.  

Meanwhile $VIX $VXN will continue to anchor and coil quietly before they break out.   We are monitoring a potentially big W bottom with UVXY.   For that reason, we are holding UVXY over the weekend.


Updates 9:22 AM EST - Friday 10/23/20

Pre-market
Quiet this morning in terms of news.   $SPX IWM are set to gap up, but pre-market price actions tell us to look for profit taking with $SPX IWM when market opens.  

For this reason, we are not jumping into buy TQQQ just yet.  We have placed buy order to enter TQQQ when it swings low again.

$VIX dropped last night, but looks ready to reverse this morning.   Half of our UVXY position got filled.   We will see how $VIX $VXN unfolds before entering the remaining if any.

Updates 2:27 AM EST - Friday 10/23/20

From now to the election
The truth is no one knows what will happen on 11/3 election date.   The prudent thing to do is not to build up big position ahead of this game changing date.

However, between now and then, here are the scenarios we most likely will see.
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