Updates for Monday 8/16/21

We trade 3x ETFs such as TQQQ TNA SOXL LABU UVXY using proprietary analysis of volatility.  
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Updates 12:30 AM EST -  Monday 8/16/21

This week's schedule 
There are not as many economics reports this week as last week.  (Click here for this week's schedule.)   But here are a few events that are likely to move the market.

Tuesday 8/17:   

• Powell speaks 1:30 PM EST

Wednesday 8/18:   

• FOMC Minutes 2 PM EST
• $VIX expiration

Friday 8/20:

• Equity options expiration

Bullish forces for stocks 
We discussed this last week, and this information is still relevant.

• Strong earnings; fat profit margins
• Robust job growth
• Growing GDP
• Business spending likely to rise
• Stock buybacks
• Crypto market signals "risk-on" mood

Bearish forces for stocks ​​
Fed tapering:  With Powell speaking on Tuesday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and Jackson Hole Symposium August 26-28, a lot of attention will be on the issues of Fed tapering:  when, how, and how much.  This is likely to trigger some knee-jerk responses along the way.

Treasury bond yields rising:   US10Y chart formed a short-term double bottom at 1.127, and is likely to test this level again this week. If it forms a multi-bottom, US10Y may climb back up towards 1.6 - 1.7.  When this happens, it can be bearish on $NDX.

Bond volatility is on the move:   The chart of $SRVIX (CBOE interest rate swap volatility index)  shot from 78 up to 110 for 3 days last week before dropping back down on Friday.   It's important to keep monitoring this.

Market internals still weak:   

• The charts of NYSE and Nasdaq A/D net issues are still showing bearish divergence, but they are also showing some traction.  That is they are no longer dropping and are forming a base.   
• The percentage of stocks above 200-day MA are still continuing to diverge bearishly from $SPX $NDX prices.

Big picture:  still bullish 
The bull market that started on 3/23/20 is still intact.   Our job is to look for low-risk dips this week to enter long.   With OPEX and $VIX expiration happening this week, we may see more volatility and a slightly bigger dip opportunity to take advantage of.  

$VIX  $VXN $RVX
Charts and projections are available in full post for members.

$SPX $NDX IWM
Charts and projections are available in full post for members.

Signal Trades
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