Timing Stock Market Successfully
  • Home
  • Members
  • Testimonials
  • Subscribe
  • Contact
  • Home
  • Members
  • Testimonials
  • Subscribe
  • Contact

Updates for Friday 12/23/22

12/22/2022

0 Comments

 
  • Timing stock market short-term swings based on VIX. Market analysis for stock indices. Entry/exit signals for TQQQ TNA SQQQ TZA.
  • Current trade record here.​
  • Subscribe to get our daily analysis, trade plans and live intraday trades.​​​​​​​​

Updates 4 PM ET - Friday 12/23/22

Today's exit from bear position (TZA)
Picture

Updates 1:33 PM ET - Friday 12/23/22

$VIX and market breadth suggest a rally may be in the making
$VIX tried to rise this morning but did not succeed.   It may be still building a base for rising, but so far it has very little momentum.

We have to allow for the possibility that $VIX is building a base for possibly dropping a lot more. This would mean another bear market rally is in the making.

Market breadth charts support this possibility. ES NQ RTY price actions also support this possibility. So we have tightened the stop on our TZA positions.

We are not entering TNA or any bullish position yet.  The next key reversal point will likely come after the job report on January 6. 

Have a wonderful holiday.


Updates 1:00 AM ET - Friday 12/23/22

Key S/R levels
The relief bounce was sharp but short.   Below are the new key S/R levels.
Picture

​Right now price actions, volatility and market breadth tell us that conditions are bearish.  We need to continue monitoring the key charts for clues. Are the bearish conditions continuing, or are ES NQ RTY setting up for another bear market rally?

In RTY 4-hour chart below, we discussed the bearish versus bullish EMA patterns that we are looking for.   We are leaning bearish at the moment.

Note that Personal Income & Spending report at 8:30 AM may move market direction given the thin holiday trading.
Picture

Market breadth: bearish; Volatility: bearish
Market breadth charts have gone back to being quite bearish.   

$VIX chart is finally forming the W bottom pattern that we've been waiting for.  To ensure that this W pattern continues to develop, we want to see $VIX 20-hour EMA blue line surges above its 200-hour EMA green line.   This green line currently is close to 22.8 which is a crucial $VIX level.

If the W pattern stays intact and $VIX 20-hour EMA blue line surges up, that's a very bearish setup for stocks.

On the other hand, we may see $VIX 20-hour EMA blue line rises just a bit above its 200-hour EMA green line, then drops back below it.   That's actually a highly bullish setup for stocks to reverse into a bear market rally.

Picture

Our Personal Trade Plan
  • We are still holding on to our first TZA position.   
  • We have scaled partially into another TZA position.
  • We plan to scale out of these TZA positions starting when RTY drops down to S2 zone or below.
  • Alternatively we will manually exit TZA if $VIX turns bullish as described above.
​
Subscribe to get our latest analysis, daily trade plans and live intraday trades.
Current trade record here.   


Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion.  Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.   We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.
Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion.  Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.   We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    March 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

Copyright (c) 2019-2022 LOOK Systems LLC
All rights reserved.