Updates for Monday 11/15/21

We trade 3x ETFs such as TQQQ TNA SOXL LABU UVXY using proprietary analysis of volatility.   See trade record here.

Updates 12 AM EST - Monday 11/15/21

Key dates
Here's the economic calendar for the full week.   Look for these key reports that may move the market.

Tuesday:  Retail Sales; Industrial Production
Wednesday:  Housing Starts
Thursday:   Jobless Claims

The key events this week will be the monthly options expiration.
Wednesday:   $VIX options expiration
Friday:    options expiration for equity, equity index, ETF, ETN

​Click here for earnings calendar for this week.

Volatility
So far $VVIX is following the Rise>>Anchor>>Spike pattern that we started showing early last week.  There is a high probability that $VVIX will follow the updated path shown below.   Not a guarantee, but a high probability.

1. $VVIX drops to around 107 (Mon)
2. $VVIX starts to form the medium spike
3. $VVIX spike peaks around OPEX (Fri)
4. $VVIX drops down next week and keeps dropping until early Dec.​

Equity Put/Call Ratio 
In the P/C ratio 30-minute chart below, its 200 EMA green line has flattened out and is likely to continue sideway.   This indicates that traders have gone from a super bullish buy-calls mindset from early November, to a more cautious "buy-puts-to-hedge" mindset.

Advance-Decline Net Issues >> bullish
NYSE and Nasdaq A/D lines are still above their 200-hour EMA on their cumulative hourly charts.  Overall message is still bullish.

However, keep an eye on Nasdaq A/D as it is getting close to its 200-hour EMA green line.   If this green line starts to flatten out and go sideway, or turn downward, it means Nasdaq market breadth is turning bearish.   ​

Seasonality >> bullish
Statistically, this is a bullish period of the trading year.

Dealer Hedging >> bullish
As long as the $SPX $NDX IWM  stay above the price levels shown below, dealer hedging activities will keep price swings smallish, resulting in calmer market.  If $SPX $NDX IWM drop below these levels, dealer hedging activities will feed into price swings, resulting in much more volatile market.

• $SPX:  4645
• $NDX:  15720
• IWM:  234

Short-term Key Levels
The table below has been fully updated.

Trade Plan
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Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion.  Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.   We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections.  You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our suggestions.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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