Updates 2:21 PM ET - Friday 5/26/23
Our SVIX trades so far
We manually scaled into SVIX after PCE report per our trade plan from last night. Based on VIX patterns, VIX is still likely to retest 15.6 - 16.6 before launching into its 2nd "anxiety" spike.
This means that SVIX is likely to retest near its May 19 high. We've tightened stop on 1/2 of our position to get out at breakeven, but removed stop on the other half to cope with big swings if they come. We intend to hold onto at least 1/2 position over the weekend.
Updates 1:30 AM ET - Friday 5/26/23
Explanation of Indicators
Background info on $VIX, $VVIX, ES, NQ RTY
Key S/R levels
RTY support levels have been updated. All other levels remain the same.
Here are our updated projections.
An "anxiety" spike typically results in a moderate drop for ES NQ RTY. Right now, we don't see any VIX setup for a "real fear" spike, and certainly not a "panic" spike. Not yet anyway.
However, after VIX reaches back into the support zone 15.6 - 16.4, it may form a 2nd "anxiety" spike. This 2nd spike may happen during the week of 6/12 with CPI, FOMC and June OpEx. This spike may take VIX up to 22 - 23 before it drops back down again.
We don't have enough data at this point to project what will happen after the 2nd "anxiety" spike. But both bulls and bears should keep in mind that these "anxiety" spikes are short-lived and typically result in choppy price actions for ES NQ RTY.
Our Personal Trade Plan
Click here for Signal Trades spreadsheet.
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought. We are not offering financial advice. We are not promoting any financial products. We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers. We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.