Updates for Monday April 17, 2023

• Timing stock market short-term swings based on VIX. Market analysis for stock indices. Entry/exit signals for TQQQ TNA SQQQ TZA.
• Current trade record here.​
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Updates 7:15 PM ET - Sunday

Upcoming key events
The key event this week is VIX OpEx on Wednesday and OpEx on Friday.    We will discuss more about this further below.

​Earnings this week
Chart courtesy of Earnings Whispers.

Earnings season gets going in earnest this week with important reports from Tesla,  Schwab, Bank of America, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and Goldman Sachs.   Traders will also be closely monitoring smaller regional banks for the viability of their earnings.   (Read more on macro conditions here.)

Explanation of Indicators
Background info on $VIX, $VVIX, ES, NQ RTY

​Key S/R levels
The table has not changed.

Our indicators are still mostly bullish (green).  However, much of this has to do with $VIX dropping as VIX OpEx approaches (Wednesday 4/19).  By Thursday, we may see VIX futures start to rise, and spot VIX ($VIX) may rise at the same time.  However $VIX may not seriously rise until Monday April 24, after equity OpEx.

What this means is that bulls should consider taking profits or tightening stops by Wednesday - Thursday this week. 

After that bulls and bears should both be patient because the period between VIX OpEx and equity OpEx can be unpredictable.  Wait until VIX, market breadth and ES NQ RTY price patterns convey the same message (bullish vs. bearish) before scaling into the next multi-day position. 

​Updated NQ projection:

• NQ may rise up to13350 (R1) by VIX OpEx on Wednesday April 19. 
• After April 19, $VIX may start rising.  Its initial bearish effect on ES NQ RTY is unpredictable.
• After equity OpEx on Friday April 21, NQ may drop to retest support at 12925 (S1) again during late April into early May.  
• While NQ drops, $VIX is likely to rise as traders load up on puts to hedge against FOMC announcement on May 3.
• After May 3, these puts will be unwound, resulting in a short squeeze.   This means ES NQ RTY will likely rise. 

ES and RTY are likely to follow the same path as NQ.

Is volatility going to erupt next week?
No.  Even though $VIX is likely to rise after April 19, it is unlikely to exceed the zone 22-23.  $VIX 20-day EMA blue line has not formed another W bottom yet (see red arrows).  These W bottoms have to form repeatedly in the same zone for $VIX to take off.   ​

​Our Personal Trade Plan
On Friday, $VIX continues to drop as expected, but ES NQ RTY were not tracking $VIX moves as closely.  Instead they dipped more than expected in the morning. This happens sometimes. The market acts more bearish than as reflected by $VIX.

Our attempts to scale into bull position TNA resulted in a minor loss.  But we re-entered one more time with a half-size TNA position to hold over the weekend.  We plan to add the remaining half on Monday, and hold until Wednesday.   See our buy orders in spreadsheet.

Disclaimer
The information presented here is our own personal opinion. Consider it as food for thought.  We are not offering financial advice.  We are not promoting any financial products.  We are not registered financial advisers or licensed brokers.  We make no guarantee that anything will unfold according to our projections. You are proceeding at your own risk if you follow our trades.